Metals, Ores, and Mining Firms, Mint Finance

Pranay Yadav

Metals, Ores, and Mining Firms

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

Commodities

<ul>
<li>Wheat, Corn and Soy gained on Monday even as US indices and commodities tumbled over recession woes. </li>
<li>Weaker dollar supports stronger US exports of agri-commodities. Grains and oilseeds rise as dollar weakens.</li>
<li>Technical indicators and fundamental outlook remains bearish for agri-commoties. IV remains subdued at multi-month lows. </li>
</ul>


Wheat, Corn and Soy gained on Monday even as US indices and commodities tumbled over recession woes. 
Weaker dollar supports stronger US exports of agri-commodities. Grains and oilseeds rise as dollar weakens.
Technical indicators and fundamental outlook remains bearish for agri-commoties. IV remains subdued at multi-month lows. 


Wheat, Corn and Soy Remain Insulated From Global Shakedown

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We are downgrading our long-term outlook to neutral (had been bullish since early-November 2023) due to rapidly deteriorating market dynamics</li>
<li>We still believe the S&amp;P 500 is going through a 1- to 4-month consolidation phase, but odds have increased that this consolidation phase could be a topping pattern.</li>
<li>SPX is initially holding at 5100-5191 as discussed last week, but we're not interested in knife-catching or picking a bottom, want to see stabilization/price discovery before adjusting our still-defensive posture.</li>
</ul>


We are downgrading our long-term outlook to neutral (had been bullish since early-November 2023) due to rapidly deteriorating market dynamics
We still believe the S&amp;P 500 is going through a 1- to 4-month consolidation phase, but odds have increased that this consolidation phase could be a topping pattern.
SPX is initially holding at 5100-5191 as discussed last week, but we're not interested in knife-catching or picking a bottom, want to see stabilization/price discovery before adjusting our still-defensive posture.


Downgrading Outlook on $SPX; Upgrading Real Estate and Staples. Many Significant Risk-Off Signals

AI and Global Deep Tech, Mint Finance

Uttkarsh Kohli

AI and Global Deep Tech

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>July saw only 114,000 new jobs versus a forecast of 180,000. Unemployment rose to 4.3%, the highest since October 2021. </li>
<li>The S&amp;P 500 fell 1.8% and dropped below its 50-day moving average, tech and semiconductor sectors led significant market declines. </li>
<li>Implied volatility surged as the S&amp;P 500 saw high put options activity. Analysts expect a potential market rebound later in August.</li>
</ul>


July saw only 114,000 new jobs versus a forecast of 180,000. Unemployment rose to 4.3%, the highest since October 2021. 
The S&amp;P 500 fell 1.8% and dropped below its 50-day moving average, tech and semiconductor sectors led significant market declines. 
Implied volatility surged as the S&amp;P 500 saw high put options activity. Analysts expect a potential market rebound later in August.


Global Markets Plummet as Recession Fears, Weak Jobs Report, and Israel-Iran Conflicts Escalate

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nvidia-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5891:1" rel="noopener">NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/apple-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:666:1" rel="noopener">Apple (AAPL US)</a> switched positions in June setting off huge flows. Those flows could reverse in September if the current index methodology is used.</li>
<li>To avoid frequent reverse turnover, S&amp;P DJI have started a market consultation to change the index weighting methodology. We believe feedback will be positive and the proposals will be approved.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/apple-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:666:1" rel="noopener">Apple (AAPL US)</a> will have inflows in September while there will be outflows from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/microsoft-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15273:1" rel="noopener">Microsoft Corp (MSFT US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nvidia-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5891:1" rel="noopener">NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US)</a>. </li>
</ul>



NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US) and Apple (AAPL US) switched positions in June setting off huge flows. Those flows could reverse in September if the current index methodology is used.
To avoid frequent reverse turnover, S&amp;P DJI have started a market consultation to change the index weighting methodology. We believe feedback will be positive and the proposals will be approved.

Apple (AAPL US) will have inflows in September while there will be outflows from Microsoft Corp (MSFT US) and NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US). 


Technology Select Sector Index (XLK US): Market Consultation to Avoid Reverse Turnover (NVDA/AAPL)

Quantitative Researcher, MRM Research

Nico Rosti

Quantitative Researcher

MRM Research

Quantitative Research

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-500-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22886:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P 500 INDEX</a> is massively oversold WEEKLY (and DAILY).</li>
<li>Our models indicate the index is trading in the "Tails" area of the LONG model, a reversal is probably imminent, but forecasts in this  price area are less reliable.</li>
<li>Accumulation can start from Monday's low prices (around 5100), the reversal will probably come next week.</li>
</ul>


The S&amp;P 500 INDEX is massively oversold WEEKLY (and DAILY).
Our models indicate the index is trading in the "Tails" area of the LONG model, a reversal is probably imminent, but forecasts in this  price area are less reliable.
Accumulation can start from Monday's low prices (around 5100), the reversal will probably come next week.


EQD | The S&P500 WEEKLY Smashed The Tails Barrier, Reversal Due Soon

United States

The S&P 500® is widely regarded as the best single gauge of large-cap U.S. equities and serves as the foundation for a wide range of investment products. The index includes 500 leading companies and captures approximately 80% coverage of available market capitalization.

S&P 500 INDEX (SPX INDEX)

Wheat, Corn and Soy Remain Insulated From Global Shakedown

Wheat, corn, and soy futures exhibit surprising strength despite broader market declines, driven by the weakening US dollar, although year-to-date...

Mint Finance

Downgrading Outlook on $SPX; Upgrading Real Estate and Staples. Many Significant Risk-Off Signals

Downgrading our long-term $SPX outlook to neutral (bullish since early-November 2023) due to deteriorating market dynamics; Upgrading Real Estate...

Vermilion Research

Global Markets Plummet as Recession Fears, Weak Jobs Report, and Israel-Iran Conflicts Escalate

Global markets plunged on 5/Aug on recession fears and disappointing jobs data. S&P 500 fell 1.8% below its 50-day moving average. Investors fled...

Mint Finance

Technology Select Sector Index (XLK US): Market Consultation to Avoid Reverse Turnover (NVDA/AAPL)

To reduce reverse turnover, SnP have started a consultation to change the index weighting methodology. Passives will need to buy US$7bn in Apple...

Brian Freitas

EQD | The S&P500 WEEKLY Smashed The Tails Barrier, Reversal Due Soon

The S&P 500 Index is oversold on a weekly and daily basis, with a potential reversal likely incoming soon, next week. Support prices to accumulate...

Nico Rosti

Wheat, Corn and Soy Remain Insulated From Global Shakedown

Wheat, corn, and soy futures exhibit surprising strength despite broader market declines, driven by the weakening US dollar, although year-to-date...

Mint Finance

Downgrading Outlook on $SPX; Upgrading Real Estate and Staples. Many Significant Risk-Off Signals

Downgrading our long-term $SPX outlook to neutral (bullish since early-November 2023) due to deteriorating market dynamics; Upgrading Real Estate...

Vermilion Research

Global Markets Plummet as Recession Fears, Weak Jobs Report, and Israel-Iran Conflicts Escalate

Global markets plunged on 5/Aug on recession fears and disappointing jobs data. S&P 500 fell 1.8% below its 50-day moving average. Investors fled...

Mint Finance

Technology Select Sector Index (XLK US): Market Consultation to Avoid Reverse Turnover (NVDA/AAPL)

To reduce reverse turnover, SnP have started a consultation to change the index weighting methodology. Passives will need to buy US$7bn in Apple...

Brian Freitas

EQD | The S&P500 WEEKLY Smashed The Tails Barrier, Reversal Due Soon

​The S&P 500 Index is oversold on a weekly and daily basis, with a potential reversal likely incoming soon, next week. Support prices to accumulate...

Nico Rosti

The S&P 500 Index is oversold on a weekly and daily basis, with a potential reversal likely incoming soon, next week. Support prices to accumulate...