Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>Hello everyone, and welcome to a short and sweet look at the current business cycle, what to expect, and which assets to buy ahead of what could be significant cyclical expansion.</li><li>April data has in general been week in our models and nowcasts, which was reflected in the fairly dovish CPI report yesterday.</li><li>However, May actitivity is picking up momentum again, and our Truck Demand indicator points to the business cycle picking up again from May onwards.</li></ul>

Hello everyone, and welcome to a short and sweet look at the current business cycle, what to expect, and which assets to buy ahead of what could be significant cyclical expansion.April data has in general been week in our models and nowcasts, which was reflected in the fairly dovish CPI report yesterday.However, May actitivity is picking up momentum again, and our Truck Demand indicator points to the business cycle picking up again from May onwards.

Business Cycle Watch – What to buy if manufacturing keeps surprising to the upside?

<ul><li>Hello everyone, and welcome back to our weekly Positioning Watch – insights into how market participants are positioned.</li><li>Markets are waiting patiently for the US CPI report today before placing their bets it seems, with little to no action seen yesterday and in European opening hours yesterday.</li><li>As elaborated upon in our “Week At a Glance” on Monday, we see hawkish surprises to both headline and core inflation , which will not be good news for markets, who have seemingly returned to their hopes of rate cut(s) this year.</li></ul>

Hello everyone, and welcome back to our weekly Positioning Watch – insights into how market participants are positioned.Markets are waiting patiently for the US CPI report today before placing their bets it seems, with little to no action seen yesterday and in European opening hours yesterday.As elaborated upon in our “Week At a Glance” on Monday, we see hawkish surprises to both headline and core inflation , which will not be good news for markets, who have seemingly returned to their hopes of rate cut(s) this year.

Positioning Watch – How are Macro Hedge Funds positioned?

<ul><li>Welcome to our monthly flagship asset allocation analysis – the “Macro Regime Indicator”.</li><li>Coming into April, we wrote that “The macro environment is turning worse on both inflation -and liquidity metrics, while the growth variable remains positive (measured by the cyclical manufacturing momentum).</li><li>This leaves us in a classic “QT” environment with less obvious “gung ho” risk taking through April compared to the full-on risk positive environment we have seen over the past 4-5 months as continuously flagged and traded via our allocation tools.”Without the growth parameter being a home-run in our models, we mostly got the April correction right and also capitalized decently well on the liquidity withdrawal and the hot inflation report.</li></ul>

Welcome to our monthly flagship asset allocation analysis – the “Macro Regime Indicator”.Coming into April, we wrote that “The macro environment is turning worse on both inflation -and liquidity metrics, while the growth variable remains positive (measured by the cyclical manufacturing momentum).This leaves us in a classic “QT” environment with less obvious “gung ho” risk taking through April compared to the full-on risk positive environment we have seen over the past 4-5 months as continuously flagged and traded via our allocation tools.”Without the growth parameter being a home-run in our models, we mostly got the April correction right and also capitalized decently well on the liquidity withdrawal and the hot inflation report.

<ul><li>Hello everyone, and welcome to our weekly ‘5 Things We Watch’, where we boil down 5 of the things we keep an eye out for, in a short and concise format.</li><li>Enjoy!This week we are watching out for the following 5 topics within global macro:  <ul><li>Further tailwinds for risk assets?</li><li>A hot CPI report in the cards next week</li><li>More liquidity for markets ahead</li><li>UK Assets are looking increasingly interesting</li><li>Overall dollar weakness, but not against Asian FX?</li></ul></li></ul>

Hello everyone, and welcome to our weekly ‘5 Things We Watch’, where we boil down 5 of the things we keep an eye out for, in a short and concise format.Enjoy!This week we are watching out for the following 5 topics within global macro:  Further tailwinds for risk assets?A hot CPI report in the cards next weekMore liquidity for markets aheadUK Assets are looking increasingly interestingOverall dollar weakness, but not against Asian FX?

5 Things We Watch – Risk assets, US CPI, Liquidity, FTSE/GBP & Asian FX

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Over the past two weeks we've discussed the possibility that further downside was limited (4/23/24 Compass) and mounting evidence that suggests the pullback lows may be in (4/30/24 Compass).</li>
<li>Major risk-on developments for the broad equity market have continued to roll in over the past week, which we discuss below.</li>
<li>We continue to believe the lows are in, and we see the pullback to the 100-day MA on the S&amp;P 500 as healthy/normal within the ongoing bull market.</li>
</ul>


Over the past two weeks we've discussed the possibility that further downside was limited (4/23/24 Compass) and mounting evidence that suggests the pullback lows may be in (4/30/24 Compass).
Major risk-on developments for the broad equity market have continued to roll in over the past week, which we discuss below.
We continue to believe the lows are in, and we see the pullback to the 100-day MA on the S&amp;P 500 as healthy/normal within the ongoing bull market.


Major Risk-On Developments; Bullish Outlook Intact; Downgrading Health Care $XLV to Underweight

United States

The S&P 500® is widely regarded as the best single gauge of large-cap U.S. equities and serves as the foundation for a wide range of investment products. The index includes 500 leading companies and captures approximately 80% coverage of available market capitalization.

S&P 500 INDEX (SPX INDEX)

Business Cycle Watch – What to buy if manufacturing keeps surprising to the upside?

Hello everyone, and welcome to a short and sweet look at the current business cycle, what to expect, and which assets to buy ahead of what could...

Steno Research

Positioning Watch – How are Macro Hedge Funds positioned?

Hello everyone, and welcome back to our weekly Positioning Watch – insights into how market participants are positioned. Markets are waiting...

Steno Research

Macro Regime Indicator May – UP UP UP!

Welcome to our monthly flagship asset allocation analysis – the “Macro Regime Indicator”. Coming into April, we wrote that “The macro environment...

Steno Research

5 Things We Watch – Risk assets, US CPI, Liquidity, FTSE/GBP & Asian FX

Hello everyone, and welcome to our weekly ‘5 Things We Watch’, where we boil down 5 of the things we keep an eye out for, in a short and concise...

Steno Research

Major Risk-On Developments; Bullish Outlook Intact; Downgrading Health Care $XLV to Underweight

Major Risk-On Developments; Bullish Outlook Intact $SPX $QQQ $IWM; Downgrading Health Care $XLV to Underweight Despite Still Being Bullish on $XBI....

Vermilion Research