Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Our recent insight on where to add to shorts outlined entry points in the ASX, Nikkei and Korea. Entry points are being met with updated charts.</li>
<li>Australia exhibits tough resistance near 7,200-50 to cap but we are fighting a stronger commodity cycle there.</li>
<li>Nikkei call to see a rejection at 27k to test 26,200 resolve. Korea displays a higher conviction break down from the rising wedge to short this uptick.</li>
</ul>


Our recent insight on where to add to shorts outlined entry points in the ASX, Nikkei and Korea. Entry points are being met with updated charts.
Australia exhibits tough resistance near 7,200-50 to cap but we are fighting a stronger commodity cycle there.
Nikkei call to see a rejection at 27k to test 26,200 resolve. Korea displays a higher conviction break down from the rising wedge to short this uptick.


Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zip-co-ltd-3708706d-4978-4e29-acbc-d9702b971da9" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29126:1" rel="noopener">Zip Co Ltd (Z1P AU)</a> has agreed to acquire <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sezzle-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:30969:1" rel="noopener">Sezzle Inc (SZL AU)</a> in an all-scrip deal where Sezzle shareholders will receive 0.98 shares of Z1P per shares of SZL.</li>
<li>At last closing prices, the deal values <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sezzle-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:30969:1" rel="noopener">Sezzle Inc (SZL AU)</a> at A$2.1658/share, a 21.7% premium to the last close and a 31.7% premium to 30 day VWAP.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zip-co-ltd-3708706d-4978-4e29-acbc-d9702b971da9" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29126:1" rel="noopener">Zip Co Ltd (Z1P AU)</a> has also announced a A$148.7m fully underwritten institutional placement and a A$50m non-underwritten share placement plan to strengthen its balance sheet.</li>
</ul>



Zip Co Ltd (Z1P AU) has agreed to acquire Sezzle Inc (SZL AU) in an all-scrip deal where Sezzle shareholders will receive 0.98 shares of Z1P per shares of SZL.
At last closing prices, the deal values Sezzle Inc (SZL AU) at A$2.1658/share, a 21.7% premium to the last close and a 31.7% premium to 30 day VWAP.

Zip Co Ltd (Z1P AU) has also announced a A$148.7m fully underwritten institutional placement and a A$50m non-underwritten share placement plan to strengthen its balance sheet.


Zip to Acquire Sezzle: Buy Now, Pray Later?

<ul>
<li>Markets that have held up are now vulnerable in Asia. We expect selling to mount next week. Weakness today/tomorrow to see an uptick to short into for a bigger decline.</li>
<li>SPX big risk break below 4,250 follows previous major support breaks in NDX, RTY and more recently Europe. 4,250 is now resistance to contend with on a bounce.</li>
<li>Australia, Korea and H shares presents places to add to short exposure followed by Taiwan and India (below 16,500). We have been short NKY, HSI and STI.</li>
</ul>


Markets that have held up are now vulnerable in Asia. We expect selling to mount next week. Weakness today/tomorrow to see an uptick to short into for a bigger decline.
SPX big risk break below 4,250 follows previous major support breaks in NDX, RTY and more recently Europe. 4,250 is now resistance to contend with on a bounce.
Australia, Korea and H shares presents places to add to short exposure followed by Taiwan and India (below 16,500). We have been short NKY, HSI and STI.


<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hochtief-ag" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21652:1" rel="noopener">Hochtief AG (HOT GR)</a> holds 78.58% of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cimic-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20030:1" rel="noopener">CIMIC Group Ltd (CIM AU)</a> and has made an offer to acquire the remaining shares at A$22/share.</li>
<li>Hochtief will squeeze out the remaining shareholders once it holds more than 90% of the shares in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cimic-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20030:1" rel="noopener">CIMIC Group Ltd (CIM AU)</a>. </li>
<li>We think the offer is fair and expect the stock to open close to A$22/share tomorrow. There could be ad hoc inclusion to the ASX200 index in May or June.</li>
</ul>



Hochtief AG (HOT GR) holds 78.58% of CIMIC Group Ltd (CIM AU) and has made an offer to acquire the remaining shares at A$22/share.
Hochtief will squeeze out the remaining shareholders once it holds more than 90% of the shares in CIMIC Group Ltd (CIM AU). 
We think the offer is fair and expect the stock to open close to A$22/share tomorrow. There could be ad hoc inclusion to the ASX200 index in May or June.


CIMIC (CIM AU) Takeover Offer: Should Get Done; Index Implications

Index Rebalance

HomeCo Daily Needs REIT / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aventus-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25897:1" rel="noopener">Aventus Group (AVN AU)</a> received the ATO tax ruling on 18 February. This creates some uncertainty around the timing of the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/homeco-daily-needs-reit" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33526:1" rel="noopener">HomeCo Daily Needs REIT</a> inclusion in the ASX200 Index.</li>
<li>Given the 'latest available shares in issue' are used, we think there is a better than even chance of the stock being included in the index at the March rebalance.</li>
<li>If <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/homeco-daily-needs-reit" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33526:1" rel="noopener">HomeCo Daily Needs REIT (HDN AU)</a> is not included in March, then it could replace Crown Resorts in May. Else, the stock will be added at the June rebalance.</li>
</ul>



Aventus Group (AVN AU) received the ATO tax ruling on 18 February. This creates some uncertainty around the timing of the HomeCo Daily Needs REIT inclusion in the ASX200 Index.
Given the 'latest available shares in issue' are used, we think there is a better than even chance of the stock being included in the index at the March rebalance.
If HomeCo Daily Needs REIT (HDN AU) is not included in March, then it could replace Crown Resorts in May. Else, the stock will be added at the June rebalance.


ASX200 Index Rebalance: HDN AU Inclusion Is a Matter of Time (Or Timing)

Australia

The S&P/ASX 200 measures the performance of the 200 largest index-eligible stocks listed on the ASX by float-adjusted market capitalization. Representative liquid and tradable, it is widely considered Australia's preeminent benchmark index. The index is float-adjusted. The index was launched in April 2000.

S&P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)

ASX and Korea Short Entries

Our recent insight on where to add to shorts outlined entry points in the ASX, Nikkei and Korea. Entry points are being met with updated charts.

Thomas Schroeder

Zip to Acquire Sezzle: Buy Now, Pray Later?

Zip is looking to acquire Sezzle in an all-stock deal that values Sezzle at A$491m, a 21.7% premium to the last close. Zip could migrate higher to...

Brian Freitas

Where to Add to Shorts in Asia

Markets that have held up are now vulnerable in Asia. We expect selling to mount next week. Weakness today/tomorrow to see an uptick to short into...

Thomas Schroeder

CIMIC (CIM AU) Takeover Offer: Should Get Done; Index Implications

Hochtief has offered to buy the shares it does not own in CIMIC at A$22/share. At a one year high and in line with peer valuation, we think this...

Brian Freitas

ASX200 Index Rebalance: HDN AU Inclusion Is a Matter of Time (Or Timing)

We think there is a better than even chance of HDN being included in the ASX200 Index at the March rebalance. Else, HDN will replace Crown Resorts...

Brian Freitas