Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>Hang Seng announced the results of the March rebalance post market close Friday. Two adds for the HSI, one set of changes for HSCEI, three sets for HSTECH.</li>
<li>An ad hoc rebalance was announced for the KOSDAQ150 following Osstem being designated an 'Administrative Issue'. In IPO world, we have LIC in India and SBI Sumishin NetBank coming up.</li>
<li>Friday was the review cutoff date for the March rebalance of the ASX200 Index. The ATO has provided Aventus with the tax ruling and that creates a timing issue.</li>
</ul>


Hang Seng announced the results of the March rebalance post market close Friday. Two adds for the HSI, one set of changes for HSCEI, three sets for HSTECH.
An ad hoc rebalance was announced for the KOSDAQ150 following Osstem being designated an 'Administrative Issue'. In IPO world, we have LIC in India and SBI Sumishin NetBank coming up.
Friday was the review cutoff date for the March rebalance of the ASX200 Index. The ATO has provided Aventus with the tax ruling and that creates a timing issue.


Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: HSI, HSCEI, HSTECH, HSCI, S&P/ASX, SET50, LIC, SBI Sumishin, Crown

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Crown and Blackstone have entered a Scheme Implementation Deed under which Blackstone will acquire all shares in Crown Resorts at a cash price of A$13.1/share.</li>
<li>Crown Resorts closed at A$12.64/share on 14 February. Assuming the cash payment is received by mid June , the return is 3.64% absolute and 10.92% annualised.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/seven-group-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:803:1" rel="noopener">Seven Group Holdings (SVW AU)</a> could be added to the S&amp;P/ASX 100 Index in May, while the merged HDN AU/ AVN AU entity could be added to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200</a>.</li>
</ul>


Crown and Blackstone have entered a Scheme Implementation Deed under which Blackstone will acquire all shares in Crown Resorts at a cash price of A$13.1/share.
Crown Resorts closed at A$12.64/share on 14 February. Assuming the cash payment is received by mid June , the return is 3.64% absolute and 10.92% annualised.

Seven Group Holdings (SVW AU) could be added to the S&amp;P/ASX 100 Index in May, while the merged HDN AU/ AVN AU entity could be added to the S&amp;P/ASX 200.


Crown Resorts (CWN AU): And Blackstone (Almost) Has It; Index Implications

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Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

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Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>ASX has been a favored macro long prior to breaking key support at 7,200 and is now key resistance to rally into within a stronger February cycle.</li>
<li>Expect a fade near Feb 4 for a reaction lower to 6,900, rally back to test previous support near 7,200-50 that sets up the next down leg (short).</li>
<li>For a more bullish cycle to extend, we would need to see a sustained move above 7,250 to mend the damaging technical break of range support.</li>
</ul>


ASX has been a favored macro long prior to breaking key support at 7,200 and is now key resistance to rally into within a stronger February cycle.
Expect a fade near Feb 4 for a reaction lower to 6,900, rally back to test previous support near 7,200-50 that sets up the next down leg (short).
For a more bullish cycle to extend, we would need to see a sustained move above 7,250 to mend the damaging technical break of range support.


<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ausnet-services" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10293:1" rel="noopener">Ausnet Services (AST AU)</a> will be deleted from the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)</a> after the close of trading on 4 February and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/arena-reit" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12209:1" rel="noopener">Arena Reit (ARF AU)</a> will be included.</li>
<li>With this change announced, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/telix-pharmaceuticals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26052:1" rel="noopener">Telix Pharmaceuticals (TLX AU)</a> is a high probability inclusion to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)</a> next week when <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sydney-airport" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19063:1" rel="noopener">Sydney Airport (SYD AU)</a> will be deleted.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/arena-reit" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12209:1" rel="noopener">Arena Reit (ARF AU)</a> has outperformed its peers over the last year and now trades at higher valuations. We would use price spikes on inclusion to rotate into its peers.</li>
</ul>



Ausnet Services (AST AU) will be deleted from the S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) after the close of trading on 4 February and Arena Reit (ARF AU) will be included.
With this change announced, Telix Pharmaceuticals (TLX AU) is a high probability inclusion to the S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) next week when Sydney Airport (SYD AU) will be deleted.

Arena Reit (ARF AU) has outperformed its peers over the last year and now trades at higher valuations. We would use price spikes on inclusion to rotate into its peers.


ASX200 Index Rebalance: Arena REIT to Replace Ausnet

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aventus-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25897:1" rel="noopener">Aventus Group (AVN AU)</a> securityholders vote on the proposed merger with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/homeco-daily-needs-reit" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33526:1" rel="noopener">HomeCo Daily Needs REIT (HDN AU)</a>/ <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/home-consortium-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29082:1" rel="noopener">Home Consortium Ltd (HMC AU)</a> on 25 January.</li>
<li>If approved, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aventus-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25897:1" rel="noopener">Aventus Group (AVN AU)</a> will stop trading after the close on 3 February and the shares in issue for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/homeco-daily-needs-reit" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33526:1" rel="noopener">HomeCo Daily Needs REIT (HDN AU)</a> will increase substantially.</li>
<li>That will make <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/homeco-daily-needs-reit" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33526:1" rel="noopener">HDN AU</a> the highest ranked non-ASX200 constituent and a high probability add for March. There could be an earlier inclusion to replace <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sydney-airport" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19063:1" rel="noopener">SYD AU</a> in the index.</li>
</ul>



Aventus Group (AVN AU) securityholders vote on the proposed merger with HomeCo Daily Needs REIT (HDN AU)/ Home Consortium Ltd (HMC AU) on 25 January.
If approved, Aventus Group (AVN AU) will stop trading after the close on 3 February and the shares in issue for HomeCo Daily Needs REIT (HDN AU) will increase substantially.
That will make HDN AU the highest ranked non-ASX200 constituent and a high probability add for March. There could be an earlier inclusion to replace SYD AU in the index.


HDN/AVN Merger & Potential ASX200 Inclusion in March (Or Earlier)

Australia

The S&P/ASX 200 measures the performance of the 200 largest index-eligible stocks listed on the ASX by float-adjusted market capitalization. Representative liquid and tradable, it is widely considered Australia's preeminent benchmark index. The index is float-adjusted. The index was launched in April 2000.

S&P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)

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