European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The Saipem–Subsea7 merger delivers scale, €300m synergies, €43bn backlog, and balanced governance; Subsea7 shareholders secure 6.688x Saipem shares plus NOK 22.15 dividends, crystallizing immediate cash returns.</li>
<li>Hedged arbitrage (long Subsea7, short Saipem, FX-hedged dividend) offers ~7–11% annualized returns under conservative assumptions, with optional leverage if short proceeds are usable; main risks stem from regulatory scrutiny.</li>
<li>Key catalysts: UK CMA Phase 1 decision, Brazil CADE review, and Italy’s conditional approval. Spread at +4.3% adjusted offers attractive entry for patient investors seeking event-driven opportunities.</li>
</ul>


The Saipem–Subsea7 merger delivers scale, €300m synergies, €43bn backlog, and balanced governance; Subsea7 shareholders secure 6.688x Saipem shares plus NOK 22.15 dividends, crystallizing immediate cash returns.
Hedged arbitrage (long Subsea7, short Saipem, FX-hedged dividend) offers ~7–11% annualized returns under conservative assumptions, with optional leverage if short proceeds are usable; main risks stem from regulatory scrutiny.
Key catalysts: UK CMA Phase 1 decision, Brazil CADE review, and Italy’s conditional approval. Spread at +4.3% adjusted offers attractive entry for patient investors seeking event-driven opportunities.


Deep Horizons Revisited: Saipem–Subsea7 Merger Arb at +4.3% Spread

<ul>
<li>The Saipem-Subsea 7 merger aims to create a global leader in energy services with €43 billion backlog, €20 billion revenue, and €2 billion EBITDA by leveraging complementary strengths.</li>
<li>Subsea 7 shareholders benefit from a €450 million extraordinary dividend and an exchange ratio of 6.688 Saipem shares per share, leading to a premium relative to Saipem’s valuation.</li>
<li>Market skepticism persists, reflected in Saipem’s declining share price, suggesting concerns over integration risks, regulatory challenges, and relative valuation imbalances in the merger structure.</li>
</ul>


The Saipem-Subsea 7 merger aims to create a global leader in energy services with €43 billion backlog, €20 billion revenue, and €2 billion EBITDA by leveraging complementary strengths.
Subsea 7 shareholders benefit from a €450 million extraordinary dividend and an exchange ratio of 6.688 Saipem shares per share, leading to a premium relative to Saipem’s valuation.
Market skepticism persists, reflected in Saipem’s declining share price, suggesting concerns over integration risks, regulatory challenges, and relative valuation imbalances in the merger structure.


Deep Horizons: Saipem-Subsea 7 Merger Agreement

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<ul>
<li>Cyan Renewables has bumped its <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mma-offshore-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:594:1" rel="noopener">Mma Offshore (MRM AU)</a> offer to A$2.70 per share, a 3.8% premium to the previous A$2.60 offer.</li>
<li>The bump is derisory in the context of recent earnings upgrades. Since the binding proposal, MMA has upgraded its FY24 EBITDA and EBIT guidance by 9.8% and 15.5%, respectively.</li>
<li>The AFR reported that around 30% of the register opposed the previous offer. A cursory 3.8% bump is unlikely to sway most of these dissenters to change their views.</li>
</ul>


Cyan Renewables has bumped its Mma Offshore (MRM AU) offer to A$2.70 per share, a 3.8% premium to the previous A$2.60 offer.
The bump is derisory in the context of recent earnings upgrades. Since the binding proposal, MMA has upgraded its FY24 EBITDA and EBIT guidance by 9.8% and 15.5%, respectively.
The AFR reported that around 30% of the register opposed the previous offer. A cursory 3.8% bump is unlikely to sway most of these dissenters to change their views.


MMA Offshore (MRM AU): Disappointing Final Offer Poses a Vote Risk

Index Rebal Trades & Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Index Rebal Trades & Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The SE600 index is one of the most widely followed benchmark indices in Europe. This index is rebalanced on a quarterly basis.</li>
<li>The base date for rankings for the June 2024 index rebal event is 31st May 2024. In this insight, we take a look at the latest list of potential ADDs/DELs.</li>
<li>Currently, I see 7 ADDs and 7 DELs for the SE600 index. There are more names just outside the border requiring small price changes to get involved in index changes.</li>
</ul>


The SE600 index is one of the most widely followed benchmark indices in Europe. This index is rebalanced on a quarterly basis.
The base date for rankings for the June 2024 index rebal event is 31st May 2024. In this insight, we take a look at the latest list of potential ADDs/DELs.
Currently, I see 7 ADDs and 7 DELs for the SE600 index. There are more names just outside the border requiring small price changes to get involved in index changes.


Quiddity Leaderboard SE600 Jun 24: Potential ADDs Could Continue to Outperform Potential DELs

<ul>
<li>The SE600 index is one of the most widely followed benchmark indices in Europe. This index is rebalanced on a quarterly basis.</li>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes that could take place between now and the end of the June 2024 index rebal event.</li>
<li>Currently, I see 7 ADDs and 7 DELs for the SE600 index. There are more names just outside the border requiring small price changes to get involved in index changes. </li>
</ul>


The SE600 index is one of the most widely followed benchmark indices in Europe. This index is rebalanced on a quarterly basis.
In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes that could take place between now and the end of the June 2024 index rebal event.
Currently, I see 7 ADDs and 7 DELs for the SE600 index. There are more names just outside the border requiring small price changes to get involved in index changes. 


Quiddity Leaderboard SE600 Mar 24: 7 Changes Likely; Expected ADDs Could Outperform Expected DELs

Italy

Saipem S.p.A. offers construction and offshore and onshore drilling services. The Company installs sub-sea pipelines, installs fixed platforms, manages complete onshore construction projects, and drills for oil mainly in Italy, Algeria, Nigeria, and the Arabian peninsula.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Saipem SpA (SPM IM)

Deep Horizons Revisited: Saipem–Subsea7 Merger Arb at +4.3% Spread

Saipem–Subsea7 merger offers +4.3% spread and 7–11% annualized arb returns with dividends locked; regulatory risk remains, but shareholder...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Deep Horizons: Saipem-Subsea 7 Merger Agreement

Saipem-Subsea 7 merger aims to create global energy services leader with €43 billion backlog, €20 billion revenue, and €2 billion EBITDA, but...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

MMA Offshore (MRM AU): Disappointing Final Offer Poses a Vote Risk

The bump is derisory in the context of recent earnings upgrades. It is unlikely that a cursory 3.8% bump will sway most of the NO vote to change...

Arun George

Quiddity Leaderboard SE600 Jun 24: Potential ADDs Could Continue to Outperform Potential DELs

The Top 10 potential ADDs have strongly outperformed the Top 7 potential DELs in the last 1-month, 3-month, and 1-year periods. I expect this trend...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Quiddity Leaderboard SE600 Mar 24: 7 Changes Likely; Expected ADDs Could Outperform Expected DELs

My latest estimate for one-way flow is US$95mn. The expected ADDs have strong positive momentum while the expected DELs have strong negative momentum.

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Deep Horizons Revisited: Saipem–Subsea7 Merger Arb at +4.3% Spread

Saipem–Subsea7 merger offers +4.3% spread and 7–11% annualized arb returns with dividends locked; regulatory risk remains, but shareholder...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Deep Horizons: Saipem-Subsea 7 Merger Agreement

​Saipem-Subsea 7 merger aims to create global energy services leader with €43 billion backlog, €20 billion revenue, and €2 billion EBITDA, but...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

MMA Offshore (MRM AU): Disappointing Final Offer Poses a Vote Risk

The bump is derisory in the context of recent earnings upgrades. It is unlikely that a cursory 3.8% bump will sway most of the NO vote to change...

Arun George

Quiddity Leaderboard SE600 Jun 24: Potential ADDs Could Continue to Outperform Potential DELs

The Top 10 potential ADDs have strongly outperformed the Top 7 potential DELs in the last 1-month, 3-month, and 1-year periods. I expect this trend...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Quiddity Leaderboard SE600 Mar 24: 7 Changes Likely; Expected ADDs Could Outperform Expected DELs

My latest estimate for one-way flow is US$95mn. The expected ADDs have strong positive momentum while the expected DELs have strong negative momentum.

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Saipem-Subsea 7 merger aims to create global energy services leader with €43 billion backlog, €20 billion revenue, and €2 billion EBITDA, but...