External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Dragged by the weakness of major global peers, SANYI’s share price has been weak since early Oct.</li>
<li>Its share price was under further pressure yesterday (1 Nov) following the release of weaker-than-expected revenue growth (26% YoY) despite decent earnings growth (46% YoY) in 3Q23.</li>
<li>We revise down our 2023E/24E/25E earnings forecast by 5%/9%/7% after factoring in lower sales growth of road header and CCMU.</li>
</ul>
Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.


Dragged by the weakness of major global peers, SANYI’s share price has been weak since early Oct.
Its share price was under further pressure yesterday (1 Nov) following the release of weaker-than-expected revenue growth (26% YoY) despite decent earnings growth (46% YoY) in 3Q23.
We revise down our 2023E/24E/25E earnings forecast by 5%/9%/7% after factoring in lower sales growth of road header and CCMU.

Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

SANY International (631 HK) – Weak revenue growth in the price; overseas growth story still intact

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>In our prior EM Strategy (August 7, 2023) we discussed how MSCI EM (EEM-US) was near major 1+ year resistance at $42.</li>
<li>After being unable to break out, EEM-US consolidation has continued, and is again approaching major 10.5-month support at $37-$37.50, which has been our important line-in-the-sand throughout 2023.</li>
<li>As long as EEM-US is above $37, we are buyers on this pullback.</li>
</ul>


In our prior EM Strategy (August 7, 2023) we discussed how MSCI EM (EEM-US) was near major 1+ year resistance at $42.
After being unable to break out, EEM-US consolidation has continued, and is again approaching major 10.5-month support at $37-$37.50, which has been our important line-in-the-sand throughout 2023.
As long as EEM-US is above $37, we are buyers on this pullback.


MSCI EM Index Approaching 10.5-Month Support; Remain Overweight India; Many EM Buys

HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

<ul>
<li>While valuations for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lonking-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3944:1" rel="noopener">Lonking Holdings (3339 HK)</a> do not appear expensive, there is a risk that the 2H23 earnings outlook is weaker than expected. This opens room for disappointment.</li>
<li>There is no sign that domestic sales have picked up and Jul-Aug was still down significantly. Meanwhile, the strong export in 1H23 has not sustained in the last two months. </li>
<li>The weaker A-share market so far in 2H23 also does not bode well for investment gains, which are important contributors to the impressive earnings rebound in 1H23.</li>
</ul>


While valuations for Lonking Holdings (3339 HK) do not appear expensive, there is a risk that the 2H23 earnings outlook is weaker than expected. This opens room for disappointment.
There is no sign that domestic sales have picked up and Jul-Aug was still down significantly. Meanwhile, the strong export in 1H23 has not sustained in the last two months. 
The weaker A-share market so far in 2H23 also does not bode well for investment gains, which are important contributors to the impressive earnings rebound in 1H23.


Lonking (3339 HK): Between a Rock and a Hard Place

<ul><li>While SANYI’s net profit in 2Q23 grew only 19% YoY to RMB552mn, it was largely due to an increase in R&amp;D spending.</li><li>We do not think this is negative given SANYI’s good track record in new product development through R&amp;D commitment.</li><li>The strong revenue growth (+54% YoY) and gross margin expansion (+0.9ppt YoY, +3.3ppt QoQ to 27.8%) in 2Q23 are impressive, in our view. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

While SANYI’s net profit in 2Q23 grew only 19% YoY to RMB552mn, it was largely due to an increase in R&amp;D spending.We do not think this is negative given SANYI’s good track record in new product development through R&amp;D commitment.The strong revenue growth (+54% YoY) and gross margin expansion (+0.9ppt YoY, +3.3ppt QoQ to 27.8%) in 2Q23 are impressive, in our view. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

SANY International (631 HK) – Net Profit in 2Q23 +19% YoY

Oil & Natural Gas Corp / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>MSCI EM (EEM-US) continues to show signs of bottoming as it has held above our $37-$37.50 line-in-the-sand. </li>
<li>Major 1+ year resistance on the EEM-US is at $42, and a breakout would mean the bottom is in (and would be a buy signal).</li>
<li>Favor EM over EAFE due to 2.5-year downtrend reversal in the EAFE vs. EM ratio. Top Overweights: Taiwan, India, Greece; Attractive EM Sectors: Energy, Technology, Consumer Discretionary, Financials</li>
</ul>


MSCI EM (EEM-US) continues to show signs of bottoming as it has held above our $37-$37.50 line-in-the-sand. 
Major 1+ year resistance on the EEM-US is at $42, and a breakout would mean the bottom is in (and would be a buy signal).
Favor EM over EAFE due to 2.5-year downtrend reversal in the EAFE vs. EM ratio. Top Overweights: Taiwan, India, Greece; Attractive EM Sectors: Energy, Technology, Consumer Discretionary, Financials


MSCI Emerging Market Index Testing 1+ Year Resistance; Favor EM over EAFE; Top EM Buys Highlighted

China

Sany Heavy Equipment International Holdings Co Ltd. manufactures coal mining equipment, including roadheaders.

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Sany Heavy Equipment (631 HK)

SANY International (631 HK) – Weak revenue growth in the price; overseas growth story still intact

Dragged by the weakness of major global peers, SANYI’s share price has been weak since early Oct. Its share price was under further pressure...

CMB International

MSCI EM Index Approaching 10.5-Month Support; Remain Overweight India; Many EM Buys

$EEM is again approaching major 10.5-month support at $37-$37.50, which has been our important line-in-the-sand throughout 2023. As long as $EEM is...

Vermilion Research

Lonking (3339 HK): Between a Rock and a Hard Place

Lonking's valuations are not too expensive, but 2H23 earnings may disappoint. Domestic sales have not improved, strong export in 1H23 not...

Osbert Tang, CFA

SANY International (631 HK) – Net Profit in 2Q23 +19% YoY

The strong revenue growth (+54% YoY) and gross margin expansion (+0.9ppt YoY, +3.3ppt QoQ to 27.8%) in 2Q23 are impressive, in our view.

CMB International

MSCI Emerging Market Index Testing 1+ Year Resistance; Favor EM over EAFE; Top EM Buys Highlighted

MSCI EM Index $EEM Testing 1+ Year Resistance; Favor EM over EAFE $EFA. Top EM Country Overweights: Taiwan, India, Greece; Attractive EM Sectors:...

Vermilion Research

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SANY International (631 HK) – Weak revenue growth in the price; overseas growth story still intact

Dragged by the weakness of major global peers, SANYI’s share price has been weak since early Oct. Its share price was under further pressure...

CMB International

MSCI EM Index Approaching 10.5-Month Support; Remain Overweight India; Many EM Buys

$EEM is again approaching major 10.5-month support at $37-$37.50, which has been our important line-in-the-sand throughout 2023. As long as $EEM is...

Vermilion Research

Lonking (3339 HK): Between a Rock and a Hard Place

​Lonking's valuations are not too expensive, but 2H23 earnings may disappoint. Domestic sales have not improved, strong export in 1H23 not...

Osbert Tang, CFA

SANY International (631 HK) – Net Profit in 2Q23 +19% YoY

The strong revenue growth (+54% YoY) and gross margin expansion (+0.9ppt YoY, +3.3ppt QoQ to 27.8%) in 2Q23 are impressive, in our view.

CMB International

MSCI Emerging Market Index Testing 1+ Year Resistance; Favor EM over EAFE; Top EM Buys Highlighted

MSCI EM Index $EEM Testing 1+ Year Resistance; Favor EM over EAFE $EFA. Top EM Country Overweights: Taiwan, India, Greece; Attractive EM Sectors:...

Vermilion Research

Lonking's valuations are not too expensive, but 2H23 earnings may disappoint. Domestic sales have not improved, strong export in 1H23 not...