Founder-CEO & Chief Analyst, Real Estate Foresight

Robert Ciemniak

Founder-CEO & Chief Analyst

Real Estate Foresight

Since 2012, REF has been helping investors with market research, project due diligence, and strategy development. This has ranged from detailed assessments and estimates on distressed developers' project portfolios to market due diligence on specific projects to macro-level questions linked to demand for commodities. The unique combination of the housing markets and developer data from data partner China Index Academy in Beijing, primary research, and technology-powered alternative data collection from public sources result in a valuable content set used in REF analytics and reports.

Predictive Analytics for China Property

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

The charts below illustrate what has happened in China in terms of primary land sales for residential or mixed-use development in 40 major cities.In 2016, the land sales declined slightly in Gross Floor Area (GFA) terms (despite <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/china-property-2017-forecast-summary" target="_blank">strong property sales volumes</a>) but increased significantly in terms of RMB Value, i.e. the average price of land on that basis went up.Such average calculations don't take into account the change in the type of locations where land is being sold - recent sales are more…

The charts below illustrate what has happened in China in terms of primary land sales for residential or mixed-use development in 40 major cities.In 2016, the land sales declined slightly in Gross Floor Area (GFA) terms (despite strong property sales volumes) but increased significantly in terms of RMB Value, i.e. the average price of land on that basis went up.Such average calculations don't take into account the change in the type of locations where land is being sold - recent sales are more…

China Property: Land Sales In 2016 - Less Supply, Higher Prices

In this 20-minute video, we review the China housing markets dynamics and present our 2017 forecast, with key arguments and data around it. We look at house prices, sales volumes, inventory clearing, land sales, construction indicators, policy and other factors.  Adapted from the presentation on ChinaDebate on Feb 2.

In this 20-minute video, we review the China housing markets dynamics and present our 2017 forecast, with key arguments and data around it. We look at house prices, sales volumes, inventory clearing, land sales, construction indicators, policy and other factors.  Adapted from the presentation on ChinaDebate on Feb 2.

China Housing 2017 - ChinaDebate Video Presentation

China's National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) released today the new data on house price indices (new home sales) for 70 cities in China. New data shows a gradual deceleration in price growth overall on a year-on-year basis from +12.4% in December to +12.2% in January, with the month-on-month growth still up +0.2% but slower than +0.3% in December. The biggest month-on-month changes were in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/china-property-a-turning-point-for-the-sunny-sanya-and-hainan-island" target="_blank">Sanya (+1.7%)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/china-property-the-case-of-chongqing" target="_blank">Chongqing (+1.3%)</a> among the risers, incidentally the two cities we have recently…

China's National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) released today the new data on house price indices (new home sales) for 70 cities in China. New data shows a gradual deceleration in price growth overall on a year-on-year basis from +12.4% in December to +12.2% in January, with the month-on-month growth still up +0.2% but slower than +0.3% in December. The biggest month-on-month changes were in Sanya (+1.7%) and Chongqing (+1.3%) among the risers, incidentally the two cities we have recently…

China Property: Cooling Signs In Official NBS House Price Data For January; Sanya and Chongqing Up

Sales volumes in gross floor area of newly sold homes in cities that imposed or extended the HPRs at the end of September and beginning of October show, with some exceptions, a clear negative trend, with the volume dynamics illustrated below. Here we are using weekly sales volume data from Fang-CREIS (note Xi'an included but only introduced HPRs in January):<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/021/306/original/Screen%20Shot%202017-02-19%20at%2017.01.36.png?1487676807" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="21306"></figure>Among Tier-2 cities in January, the cities with HPR saw the continued pattern of declines in volumes, although without the immediate impact…

Sales volumes in gross floor area of newly sold homes in cities that imposed or extended the HPRs at the end of September and beginning of October show, with some exceptions, a clear negative trend, with the volume dynamics illustrated below. Here we are using weekly sales volume data from Fang-CREIS (note Xi'an included but only introduced HPRs in January):Among Tier-2 cities in January, the cities with HPR saw the continued pattern of declines in volumes, although without the immediate impact…

China Property: Impact Of Policy Tightening More Visible In Sales Volumes

Founder, Riedel Research

David Riedel

Founder

Independent equity research on GEM Markets

Riedel Research

Riedel provides equity research and analysis to leading financial organizations. By becoming members of a region (Asia, Latin America, Emerging Europe or Global), organizations have access to an integrated set of services including:

Regular company coverage reports
Up-to-date investment decision advice (buy, hold, sell)
Monthly regional and global conference calls
Customized company reports and unlimited on-line access to the program's services.

Riedel provides research coverage of companies across the full range of market capitalization. Experienced research professionals in each market develop company reports and analysis as well as earnings models and projections. Ratings are Buy, Hold and Sell with a focus on compelling investment ideas - both long and short. Downloadable, dynamic earnings models are built to facilitate sensitivity analysis.

Please feel free to contact us for complimentary access to our written research.  We want to show you that our unique research flow can add value and help develop a long-term, high value-add relationship.

Riedel's model focuses on providing clients with unique insights and consulting in addition to unlimited access to all produced research This model allows members to receive exponential benefits for their retainer fees.

Equity Bottom-Up

We recently screened the HKG and China markets for ideas with below market P/E ratios and Dividend Yields above 2% that traded more than US$1 mn per day.  This screen netted 207 names.We then screened for which companies have corporate governance scores over 70/100 from the Riedel Research Corporate Governance Scoring system.The RRG Corporate Governance system scores Emerging Market companies on 12 different criteria to measure board independence, alignment of interest with shareholders…

We recently screened the HKG and China markets for ideas with below market P/E ratios and Dividend Yields above 2% that traded more than US$1 mn per day.  This screen netted 207 names.We then screened for which companies have corporate governance scores over 70/100 from the Riedel Research Corporate Governance Scoring system.The RRG Corporate Governance system scores Emerging Market companies on 12 different criteria to measure board independence, alignment of interest with shareholders…

Actionable Value Ideas with Solid Corporate Governance in China and Hong Kong

China

Seazen is a property developer in the Yangtze River Delta, focusing primarily on the development of residential properties and mixed-use complex projects.

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Seazen (Formerly Future Land) (1030 HK)

China Property: Land Sales In 2016 - Less Supply, Higher Prices

The charts below illustrate what has happened in China in terms of primary land sales for residential or mixed-use development in 40...

Robert Ciemniak

China Housing 2017 - ChinaDebate Video Presentation

In this 20-minute video, we review the China housing markets dynamics and present our 2017 forecast, with key arguments and data around it. We look...

Robert Ciemniak

China Property: Cooling Signs In Official NBS House Price Data For January; Sanya and Chongqing Up

China's National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) released today the new data on house price indices (new home sales) for 70 cities in China. New data...

Robert Ciemniak

China Property: Impact Of Policy Tightening More Visible In Sales Volumes

Sales volumes in gross floor area of newly sold homes in cities that imposed or extended the HPRs at the end of September and beginning of October...

Robert Ciemniak

Actionable Value Ideas with Solid Corporate Governance in China and Hong Kong

We recently screened the HKG and China markets for ideas with below market P/E ratios and Dividend Yields above 2% that traded more than US$1 mn...

David Riedel

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52-week Range

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