Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets, JapanConsuming

Michael Causton

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets

Real Insight on Japanese Consumer Markets

JapanConsuming

JapanConsuming is a specialist research firm producing intelligence on Japanese retail and consumer markets. Founded in 2000, JapanConsuming has become the leading provider of insights on Japanese retailers and consumer trends to retailers, brands, government agencies and investors. As well as a highly regarded monthly report on the market, JapanConsuming produces in-depth reports on retail sectors, seminars on key trends and telephone consulting to investors on trends and retailers.

JapanConsuming was founded by Michael Causton and Roy Larke. 

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>2020-21 was the second year in a row to see a net fall in the number of SCs in Japan. Sales levels also fell to an unprecedented degree.</li>
<li>The good news is that 2021 has been better, with even city centre malls reducing sales falls by 20 points. But the crisis has exacerbated underlying pressures. </li>
<li>A significant clear out of the SC sector is now occurring as more uneconomic properties close.</li>
</ul>


2020-21 was the second year in a row to see a net fall in the number of SCs in Japan. Sales levels also fell to an unprecedented degree.
The good news is that 2021 has been better, with even city centre malls reducing sales falls by 20 points. But the crisis has exacerbated underlying pressures. 
A significant clear out of the SC sector is now occurring as more uneconomic properties close.


Japan Shopping Centres 2020-21 Review: A Shocking Year

Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Following a strong third quarter the company has raised the full year revenue and OP outlook by 3.0% and 7.3% respectively due to stronger than expected overseas convenience store performance.</li>
<li>Moreover, the company continues to raise the Speedway synergies with the new medium-term plan expecting <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/seven-i-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1041:1" rel="noopener">Seven &amp; I Holdings (3382 JP)</a> to double the EBITDA and EPS through 2020-25.</li>
<li>After rallying 65% in 1H21, shares took a breather during the last seven months. We think the timing is right to start the second half of Seven &amp; I’s rally.</li>
</ul>


Following a strong third quarter the company has raised the full year revenue and OP outlook by 3.0% and 7.3% respectively due to stronger than expected overseas convenience store performance.
Moreover, the company continues to raise the Speedway synergies with the new medium-term plan expecting Seven &amp; I Holdings (3382 JP) to double the EBITDA and EPS through 2020-25.
After rallying 65% in 1H21, shares took a breather during the last seven months. We think the timing is right to start the second half of Seven &amp; I’s rally.


Time to Get Back Into Our 2021 High Conviction Call Seven & I

Japan/Asia Long-Short, LightStream Research

Mio Kato

Japan/Asia Long-Short

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>We update on our TOPIX-Nikkei Skew Trade again as we head into the end of the year with markets remaining choppy.</li>
<li>Given likely drops in liquidity but continued choppiness in markets we feel that liquidity risk will be important over the next 2-3 weeks. </li>
<li>Given that, we quite like the risk-reward skew on offer here.</li>
</ul>


We update on our TOPIX-Nikkei Skew Trade again as we head into the end of the year with markets remaining choppy.
Given likely drops in liquidity but continued choppiness in markets we feel that liquidity risk will be important over the next 2-3 weeks. 
Given that, we quite like the risk-reward skew on offer here.


We Like the TOPIX-Nikkei Skew Trade Into End of Year Liquidity Drops

<ul>
<li>Oisix Ra Daichi sees sales continue to rise, up 18% in the first half of the year and ARPU still remains 18% higher than 2019.</li>
<li>Additional promotional costs and the cost of expanding production and distribution capacity meant profits fell short of 2020. </li>
<li>But the online food firm is a leader in the online category with the biggest growth potential and we see no downside, especially given the recent decline in share price.</li>
</ul>


Oisix Ra Daichi sees sales continue to rise, up 18% in the first half of the year and ARPU still remains 18% higher than 2019.
Additional promotional costs and the cost of expanding production and distribution capacity meant profits fell short of 2020. 
But the online food firm is a leader in the online category with the biggest growth potential and we see no downside, especially given the recent decline in share price.


Oisix Fundamentals Strong Base for Future Premium Online Food Leadership

<ul>
<li>Familymart is fast becoming the leading retailer for unmanned stores.</li>
<li>It has a target of 1,000 unmanned stores by 2024 and is rolling out new shops regularly, although most remain experimental as it searches for the best model.</li>
<li>Other convenience stores are catching up too although have much less ambitious targets.</li>
</ul>


Familymart is fast becoming the leading retailer for unmanned stores.
It has a target of 1,000 unmanned stores by 2024 and is rolling out new shops regularly, although most remain experimental as it searches for the best model.
Other convenience stores are catching up too although have much less ambitious targets.


Familymart Taking the Lead in Developing Unmanned Conbini

Japan

Seven & i Holdings Co., Ltd. is a holding company which was established through the merger of Ito-Yokado Co., Seven Eleven Japan Co., and Denny's Japan. The Company plans, manages, and operates mainly convenience stores, supermarkets, and department stores.

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Seven & I Holdings (3382 JP)

Japan Shopping Centres 2020-21 Review: A Shocking Year

A good window into Japanese retail performance is the performance of shopping malls. This is an in-depth review, including rankings of the best...

Michael Causton

Time to Get Back Into Our 2021 High Conviction Call Seven & I

After trading range bound for almost seven months, we are expecting a breakout with Seven & I’s revised FY22 guidance which suggests that there...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

We Like the TOPIX-Nikkei Skew Trade Into End of Year Liquidity Drops

Given likely drops in liquidity but continued choppiness in markets we feel that liquidity risk will be important over the next 2-3 weeks. Given...

Mio Kato

Oisix Fundamentals Strong Base for Future Premium Online Food Leadership

Japan's online food market has less than 3% share but will grow fast in the next 3 years as both consumers and retailers adapt. Oisix is brilliant...

Michael Causton

Familymart Taking the Lead in Developing Unmanned Conbini

A labour shortage has pushed Japanese convenience store retailers to invest in technologies to reduce staff requirements and are now beginning to...

Michael Causton

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