EM PM, Ecstrat

Emad Mostaque

EM PM

Ecstrat

Ecstrat is a consultancy advising on asset allocation between global equity markets, with a focus on the intersection of governments, geopolitics, governance and markets.
 
Over the past few years and more especially since the Great Financial Crisis (GFC), investors have become more focused on short-term market movements and real-time returns and have consequently neglected the analysis of the underlying structural themes that underpin longer term performance.
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More specifically we believe that the evolution of governance-based relationships between investors, controlling shareholders, labour and the state is one of the primary determinants of both relative and absolute performance between individual equity markets.
 
We will endeavour to provide investors with some of the context surrounding governance-related issues which encompass many different disciplines including history, economics and political science, as well as the financial metrics which are the most obvious manifestation of the structural characteristics of each market.
 
We will pay particular attention to the shifts and potential inflection points for governance in individual markets as these are often the best lead indicators for both economic and market performance.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

As we come to the end of potentially one of the most transformative nights in global history it now seems almost certain that Donald Trump will be President of the United States of America, comfortably winning the electoral vote even as Hillary won the popular vote. I outline my initial thoughts on the drivers behind this, and the political, geopolitical and market impact of this below.

As we come to the end of potentially one of the most transformative nights in global history it now seems almost certain that Donald Trump will be President of the United States of America, comfortably winning the electoral vote even as Hillary won the popular vote. I outline my initial thoughts on the drivers behind this, and the political, geopolitical and market impact of this below.

Trump & The Morning After the Night Before

Independent, global risk consultancy, Control Risks

Aparajita Verma

Independent, global risk consultancy

Control Risks

Control Risks is an independent, global risk consultancy specialising in helping organisations manage political, integrity and security risks in complex and hostile environments. We support clients by providing strategic consultancy, expert analysis and in-depth investigations, handling sensitive political issues and providing practical on-the-ground protection and support.

Our unique combination of services, geographical reach and the trust our clients place in us ensure we can help them to effectively solve their problems and realise new opportunities across the world.

The bitter divisiveness of the campaign, between Democrat Hillary Clinton and her Republican rival Donald Trump, reflects the deep disaffection of substantial parts of the electorate despite a return to modest economic growth.

The bitter divisiveness of the campaign, between Democrat Hillary Clinton and her Republican rival Donald Trump, reflects the deep disaffection of substantial parts of the electorate despite a return to modest economic growth.

Winds Across the Pacific: What the US Election Will Bring to Asia

This piece highlights my recent proposal for a mechanism to solve the enforceability and adaptability issues faced by OPEC in their proposed production cuts and provides some worked examples of how the Tactical Petroleum Fund would work in practice for Smartkarma readers.

This piece highlights my recent proposal for a mechanism to solve the enforceability and adaptability issues faced by OPEC in their proposed production cuts and provides some worked examples of how the Tactical Petroleum Fund would work in practice for Smartkarma readers.

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Event-Driven

After the close of trading today, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/109" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:109:1">Idemitsu Kosan Co Ltd (5019 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/108" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:108:1">Showa Shell Sekiyu KK (5002 JP)</a> announced that indeed, their merger is delayed. <h2>The New News</h2>There were two announcements in Japanese (none in English yet).The <a href="http://www.idemitsu.co.jp/company/news/2016/161013.pdf" target="_blank">FIRST</a> was that the previous announcement that the purchase from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/22108" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22108:1">Royal Dutch Shell PLC (RDSA LN)</a> of a 33.24% stake in Showa Shell Sekiyu by Idemitsu Kosan which had been delayed to "sometime in October or November" by what was noted to be a delay in the approval from the…

After the close of trading today, Idemitsu Kosan Co Ltd (5019 JP) and Showa Shell Sekiyu KK (5002 JP) announced that indeed, their merger is delayed. The New NewsThere were two announcements in Japanese (none in English yet).The FIRST was that the previous announcement that the purchase from Royal Dutch Shell PLC (RDSA LN) of a 33.24% stake in Showa Shell Sekiyu by Idemitsu Kosan which had been delayed to "sometime in October or November" by what was noted to be a delay in the approval from the…

Idemitsu/ShowaShell Merger Delayed... Indefinitely.

The merger between <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/109" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:109:1">Idemitsu Kosan Co Ltd (5019 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/108" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:108:1">Showa Shell Sekiyu KK (5002 JP)</a> has been on the rocks for many months as the Idemitsu family's son has been publicly against the merger for months. On September 7th, the two companies <a href="http://v4.eir-parts.net/v4Contents/View.aspx?template=ir_material&amp;sid=57603&amp;code=5019" target="_blank">announced</a> a delay to Idemitsu's purchase of a 33+% stake in Showa Shell from Royal Dutch Shell because the JFTC had not yet approved the deal (though the release noted that all other anti-trust approvals had been received), but they kept the schedule for the…

The merger between Idemitsu Kosan Co Ltd (5019 JP) and Showa Shell Sekiyu KK (5002 JP) has been on the rocks for many months as the Idemitsu family's son has been publicly against the merger for months. On September 7th, the two companies announced a delay to Idemitsu's purchase of a 33+% stake in Showa Shell from Royal Dutch Shell because the JFTC had not yet approved the deal (though the release noted that all other anti-trust approvals had been received), but they kept the schedule for the…

United Kingdom

Shell PLC explores and refines petroleum products. The Company produces fuels, chemicals, and lubricants. Shell serves clients worldwide.

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Shell PLC (SHEL LN)

Trump & The Morning After the Night Before

As we come to the end of potentially one of the most transformative nights in global history it now seems almost certain that Donald Trump will be...

Emad Mostaque

Winds Across the Pacific: What the US Election Will Bring to Asia

The bitter divisiveness of the campaign, between Democrat Hillary Clinton and her Republican rival Donald Trump, reflects the deep disaffection of...

Control Risks

How to Fix Oil Prices

This piece highlights my recent proposal for a mechanism to solve the enforceability and adaptability issues faced by OPEC in their proposed...

Emad Mostaque

Idemitsu/ShowaShell Merger Delayed... Indefinitely.

After the close of trading today, Idemitsu Kosan Co Ltd (5019 JP) and Showa Shell Sekiyu KK (5002 JP) announced that indeed, their merger is...

Travis Lundy

Idemitsu/ShowaShell Merger Delayed?

The merger between Idemitsu Kosan Co Ltd (5019 JP) and Showa Shell Sekiyu KK (5002 JP) has been on the rocks for many months as the Idemitsu...

Travis Lundy

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