IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>On its first closing date on 15 November, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/xingda-international-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17836:1" rel="noopener">Xingda International (1899 HK)</a> declared the Chairman’s offer unconditional as the offeror and concert parties represented 60.76% of outstanding shares. </li>
<li>The result was surprising. The IFA opined that the offer was not fair or reasonable, and the independent Board recommended that the shareholder not accept it. </li>
<li>The CCASS movements suggest that the offer was declared unconditional mainly because friends and family supported the Chairman’s offer. The gross/annualised spread is 1.6%/92.6%.</li>
</ul>


On its first closing date on 15 November, Xingda International (1899 HK) declared the Chairman’s offer unconditional as the offeror and concert parties represented 60.76% of outstanding shares. 
The result was surprising. The IFA opined that the offer was not fair or reasonable, and the independent Board recommended that the shareholder not accept it. 
The CCASS movements suggest that the offer was declared unconditional mainly because friends and family supported the Chairman’s offer. The gross/annualised spread is 1.6%/92.6%.


Xingda (1899 HK): A Surprising Result as Offer Declared Unconditional

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>For the month of October 2024, 10 new transactions (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall announced deal size of ~US$9bn.</li>
<li>The average premium for the new transactions announced (or first discussed) in October was ~26%. The average premium YTD is ~42%.</li>
<li>This compares to the average premium for transactions in 2023 (117 transactions), 2022 (106), 2021 (165), 2020 (158), and 2019 (145 ) of 39%, 41%, 33%, 31%, and 31% respectively.</li>
</ul>


For the month of October 2024, 10 new transactions (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall announced deal size of ~US$9bn.
The average premium for the new transactions announced (or first discussed) in October was ~26%. The average premium YTD is ~42%.
This compares to the average premium for transactions in 2023 (117 transactions), 2022 (106), 2021 (165), 2020 (158), and 2019 (145 ) of 39%, 41%, 33%, 31%, and 31% respectively.


(Mostly) Asia M&A, Oct 2024: Arcadium, T Gaia, Elematec, NEC Network, MPHB, Sigma Health, Fuji Soft

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/seven-i-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1041:1" rel="noopener">Seven &amp; I (3382 JP)</a>'s roadmap is a solid response to where retailing is headed, both in Japan and elsewhere; while ACT's bid is just about carrying on as now.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/esr-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27983:1" rel="noopener">ESR (1821 HK)</a> is a non-binding proposal, no official terms, with a fragmented shareholder register. And this is before any opaque PRC regulatory conditions tacked on in a firm Offer.</li>
<li>Murakami-San is up to 23.5% of voting rights in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/exedy-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6516:1" rel="noopener">Exedy Corp (7278 JP)</a>. He would probably need 30% to be able to threaten a board spill.</li>
</ul>



Seven &amp; I (3382 JP)'s roadmap is a solid response to where retailing is headed, both in Japan and elsewhere; while ACT's bid is just about carrying on as now.

ESR (1821 HK) is a non-binding proposal, no official terms, with a fragmented shareholder register. And this is before any opaque PRC regulatory conditions tacked on in a firm Offer.
Murakami-San is up to 23.5% of voting rights in Exedy Corp (7278 JP). He would probably need 30% to be able to threaten a board spill.


Last Week in Event SPACE: Seven & I, ESR, Exedy, CMCDI, Shin Kong

<ul>
<li>I tally 42 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal.</li>
<li>One new deals discussed this week: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cemex-holdings-philippines" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22700:1" rel="noopener">Cemex Holdings Philippines (CHP PM)</a> low-balled MTO.</li>
<li>Key updates took place on: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fuji-soft-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17504:1" rel="noopener">Fuji Soft Inc (9749 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shinko-electric-industries" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15066:1" rel="noopener">Shinko Electric Industries (6967 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cpmc-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10427:1" rel="noopener">CPMC Holdings (906 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mphb-capital-bhd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8540:1" rel="noopener">MPHB Capital (MPHB MK)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dyna-mac-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16153:1" rel="noopener">Dyna Mac Holdings (DMHL SP)</a>.</li>
</ul>


I tally 42 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal.
One new deals discussed this week: Cemex Holdings Philippines (CHP PM) low-balled MTO.
Key updates took place on: Fuji Soft Inc (9749 JP), Shinko Electric Industries (6967 JP), CPMC Holdings (906 HK), MPHB Capital (MPHB MK), and Dyna Mac Holdings (DMHL SP).


(Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: CEMEX, Fuji Soft, Shinko Electric, CPMC, MPHB Capital, Dyna Mac

<ul>
<li>On the 24 September,  tyre component manufacturer <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/xingda-international-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17836:1" rel="noopener">Xingda International (1899 HK)</a> announced a $1.30/share cash Offer from Liu Jinlan, chairman and executive director. </li>
<li>The Offer is conditional on a 50% acceptance hurdle, and Liu and concert parties hold 37.03%. The Composite Doc is  out. The IFA rightfully concludes the Offer is not fair.
</li>
<li>However, the Offer is effectively a pre-emptive strike against former employee Yue Zhao (9.24% shareholder), who was recently appointed ED and vice-chairman of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shougang-concord-century-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5500:1" rel="noopener">Shougang Concord (103 HK)</a>, Xingda's major competitor.</li>
</ul>


On the 24 September,  tyre component manufacturer Xingda International (1899 HK) announced a $1.30/share cash Offer from Liu Jinlan, chairman and executive director. 
The Offer is conditional on a 50% acceptance hurdle, and Liu and concert parties hold 37.03%. The Composite Doc is  out. The IFA rightfully concludes the Offer is not fair.

However, the Offer is effectively a pre-emptive strike against former employee Yue Zhao (9.24% shareholder), who was recently appointed ED and vice-chairman of Shougang Concord (103 HK), Xingda's major competitor.


Xingda (1899 HK)'s Offer Now Open. IFA Say Not Fair

Hong Kong

Shougang Concord Century Holdings Limited, through its subsidiaries, manufactures steel cords, and processes and trades copper and brass products. The Company also develops and invests in properties.

Shougang Concord Century Holdings Ltd (103 HK)

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Shougang Concord Century Holdings Ltd (103 HK)

Xingda (1899 HK): A Surprising Result as Offer Declared Unconditional

The result was surprising as the IFA opined that the offer was not fair or reasonable. At the last close and for a 26 November payment, the gross...

Arun George

(Mostly) Asia M&A, Oct 2024: Arcadium, T Gaia, Elematec, NEC Network, MPHB, Sigma Health, Fuji Soft

For the month of Oct, 10 new deals were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall deal size of just ~US$9bn. The average premium for the new deals...

David Blennerhassett

Last Week in Event SPACE: Seven & I, ESR, Exedy, CMCDI, Shin Kong

It’s Sunday! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed during the...

David Blennerhassett

(Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: CEMEX, Fuji Soft, Shinko Electric, CPMC, MPHB Capital, Dyna Mac

This insight provides a summary of gross/annualised spreads (on deals discussed on Smartkarma) across Asia-Pacific as at the last trading date, and...

David Blennerhassett

Xingda (1899 HK)'s Offer Now Open. IFA Say Not Fair

Trading a tick below terms. If small illiquid arbs are your thing, I'd might be picking up shares here. This could morph into a competitive bidding...

David Blennerhassett

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