Index Rebal Trades & Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Index Rebal Trades & Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>A couple of weeks ago, Indian Financial Services Conglomerate Shriram Group's founder R Thyagarajan announced a succession plan which involved the creation of the Shriram Ownership Trust. </li>
<li>As the next step in this process, the group announced yesterday that three of its companies will merge to consolidate the group's lending operations under one roof.</li>
<li>This is one of the most anticipated corporate restructuring processes in India this year. Below is a closer look at the details of this Transaction.</li>
</ul>


A couple of weeks ago, Indian Financial Services Conglomerate Shriram Group's founder R Thyagarajan announced a succession plan which involved the creation of the Shriram Ownership Trust. 
As the next step in this process, the group announced yesterday that three of its companies will merge to consolidate the group's lending operations under one roof.
This is one of the most anticipated corporate restructuring processes in India this year. Below is a closer look at the details of this Transaction.


Shriram Group: Merger Announced to Form Largest Retail NBFC in India

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Motilal Oswal Financial Services Limited

Motilal Oswal

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Motilal Oswal Financial Services Limited

Motilal Oswal Financial Services Limited is an Indian diversified financial services firm offering a range of financial products and services. 

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Equity Bottom-Up

Shriram City Union Finance / Equity Bottom-Up

PAT in line; minor improvement in Stage 3 SCUF posted a PAT of INR2.82b (up 10% YoY and 36% QoQ, in line) in 2QFY22. PPOP was largely in line at INR5.8b (up 3% YoY and 2% QoQ). NII/credit costs stood in line ~INR9b/~INR2b. 2QFY22 was characterized by a sequentially strong growth of ~40% in disbursements and ~5bp QoQ improvement in GS3. Access to liquidity has considerably improved for SCUF and it has now reverted back to its pre-ILFS quarterly disbursement run-rate of INR65-70b....<div class="content-highlight">Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</div>

PAT in line; minor improvement in Stage 3 SCUF posted a PAT of INR2.82b (up 10% YoY and 36% QoQ, in line) in 2QFY22. PPOP was largely in line at INR5.8b (up 3% YoY and 2% QoQ). NII/credit costs stood in line ~INR9b/~INR2b. 2QFY22 was characterized by a sequentially strong growth of ~40% in disbursements and ~5bp QoQ improvement in GS3. Access to liquidity has considerably improved for SCUF and it has now reverted back to its pre-ILFS quarterly disbursement run-rate of INR65-70b....Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Consolidation phase over; getting back to its growth ways

Silver Point

Thomas J. Monaco

Silver Point is a boutique research firm that focuses on the broader financial services sector, with a particular focus on troubled institutions globally. 

Asia Ex Japan

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

*Not So Stable: According to the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), gross NPLS are not anticipated to be as bad as originally believed. In addition, the RBI retains its cautious outlook on MSME credit risk; and
* Rose Colored Glasses: As we have highlighted in numerous individual Indian bank notes, credit quality continued to deteriorate at an accelerated pace prior to the second wave of COVID-19. While many financials are already considered technically insolvent, the reality is that there has been absolutely no let up in the breakdown of credit quality.

*Not So Stable: According to the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), gross NPLS are not anticipated to be as bad as originally believed. In addition, the RBI retains its cautious outlook on MSME credit risk; and
* Rose Colored Glasses: As we have highlighted in numerous individual Indian bank notes, credit quality continued to deteriorate at an accelerated pace prior to the second wave of COVID-19. While many financials are already considered technically insolvent, the reality is that there has been absolutely no let up in the breakdown of credit quality.

Reserve Bank Of India – FSR Is Very Unrealistic

*Extending The Emergency Funding Plan: The Emergency Credit Line Guarantee Scheme (ECLGS) for Indian SMEs was launched in May 2020 under the Indian government’s ‘Atmanirbhar’ or self-sufficiency package in order to help offset the weakened economic conditions resultant of COVID-19. ECGLS was subsequently expanded in November 2020 to include 26 additional stressed sectors. In its latest attempt at forbearance, the Indian government just expanded its ECLGS from INR 3 tn to INR 4.5 tn; and *Kick That Can: Banks have already on-lent INR 2.7 tn under the ECLGS, and this recent announcement should further allow India to kick the can of stressed loans down the road. We remind the Indian government that if you’re extending, you are pretending.  That said, net new NPL growth should still accelerate through FYE 2022 given what appears to government crisis mismanagement which should extend the duration of the second COVID-19.

*Extending The Emergency Funding Plan: The Emergency Credit Line Guarantee Scheme (ECLGS) for Indian SMEs was launched in May 2020 under the Indian government’s ‘Atmanirbhar’ or self-sufficiency package in order to help offset the weakened economic conditions resultant of COVID-19. ECGLS was subsequently expanded in November 2020 to include 26 additional stressed sectors. In its latest attempt at forbearance, the Indian government just expanded its ECLGS from INR 3 tn to INR 4.5 tn; and *Kick That Can: Banks have already on-lent INR 2.7 tn under the ECLGS, and this recent announcement should further allow India to kick the can of stressed loans down the road. We remind the Indian government that if you’re extending, you are pretending.  That said, net new NPL growth should still accelerate through FYE 2022 given what appears to government crisis mismanagement which should extend the duration of the second COVID-19.

*New Regulation, New Loopholes: The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has finalized rules for non-bank financial company (NBFC) dividend payout ratios at a maximum of 50%. The methodology is predicated on the net NPL ratio and CAR. The new proposal is riddled with loopholes, as NBFCs can easily manipulate these ratios; and*Well-Placed NBFCs: Excluding LIC Housing Finance (LICHF.IN) and Shriram Transport (SHTF.IN), most large NBFCs are well placed to meet the proposed dividend cap if the guidelines are made applicable from the previous year.

*New Regulation, New Loopholes: The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has finalized rules for non-bank financial company (NBFC) dividend payout ratios at a maximum of 50%. The methodology is predicated on the net NPL ratio and CAR. The new proposal is riddled with loopholes, as NBFCs can easily manipulate these ratios; and*Well-Placed NBFCs: Excluding LIC Housing Finance (LICHF.IN) and Shriram Transport (SHTF.IN), most large NBFCs are well placed to meet the proposed dividend cap if the guidelines are made applicable from the previous year.

Reserve Bank of India – Wrong Rule At Wrong Time

India

Shriram City Union Finance Ltd. provides consumer loans.

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Shriram City Union Finance (SCUF IN)

Shriram Group: Merger Announced to Form Largest Retail NBFC in India

Indian Financial Services Conglomerate Shriram Group has announced a Merger between three of its group companies. This is one of India's most...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Consolidation phase over; getting back to its growth ways

PAT in line; minor improvement in Stage 3 SCUF posted a PAT of INR2.82b (up 10% YoY and 36% QoQ, in line) in 2QFY22. PPOP was largely in line at...

Motilal Oswal

Reserve Bank Of India – FSR Is Very Unrealistic

RESERVE BANK OF INDIA: According to the RBI, NPLS are not anticipated to be as bad. This couldn't be further from the truth. NPLs continue to...

Thomas J. Monaco

India Financials – Plop Plop Fizz Fizz

INDIA FINANCIALS: ECLGS was launched in May 2020 to offset poor economic conditions. ECGLS has again been expanded from INR 3 tn to INR 4.5 tn....

Thomas J. Monaco

Reserve Bank of India – Wrong Rule At Wrong Time

RESERVE BANK OF INDIA: The RBI has finalized rules for NBFC dividend payout ratios at 50% - predicated on the net NPL ratio and CAR. The new...

Thomas J. Monaco

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