Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors, Fabricated Knowledge

Douglas O'Laughlin

Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors

Fabricated Knowledge

Learn more about the world's most important manufactured product. Meaningful insight, timely analysis, and an occasional investment idea.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>The year 2023 began with a significant downturn in the semiconductor market.</li><li>Significant capacity additions were brought on after the historic shortages due to COVID-19, and then demand wobbled as interest rates quickly rose.</li><li>Supply outpaced demand, and the market turned into a period of oversupply.</li></ul>

The year 2023 began with a significant downturn in the semiconductor market.Significant capacity additions were brought on after the historic shortages due to COVID-19, and then demand wobbled as interest rates quickly rose.Supply outpaced demand, and the market turned into a period of oversupply.

Semiconductor Outlook 2024: AI's Adolescence

<ul><li>Let’s first talk about Intel. Intel reported earnings last week, and what a surprise; they managed to have a beat and raise!</li><li>I wrote about this in “<a href="https://www.fabricatedknowledge.com/p/is-this-the-intel-inflection" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Is this the Intel Inflection</a>,” noting that, for once, they had low enough hurdles to jump over.</li><li>Most of this quarter’s strength came from Client computing, while Datacenter looked better than feared. There is a slight restocking event with the back-to-school season, which implies that the worst is done for PC CPU inventories.</li></ul>

Let’s first talk about Intel. Intel reported earnings last week, and what a surprise; they managed to have a beat and raise!I wrote about this in “Is this the Intel Inflection,” noting that, for once, they had low enough hurdles to jump over.Most of this quarter’s strength came from Client computing, while Datacenter looked better than feared. There is a slight restocking event with the back-to-school season, which implies that the worst is done for PC CPU inventories.

Earnings: Intel, AMD, ANET, ON, RMBS, SITM, QCOM, QRVO

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>The Fed injected some volatility into the market after their December meeting, as they noted an uncertain inflation outlook and the SEP less expected rate cuts for 2025.</li>
<li>We discussed in our latest report (12/23/24 ETF Pathfinder), and continue to believe, that this is a buying opportunity.</li>
<li>Market dynamics remain risk-on, the SPX remains above 5850 (a key support level we have discussed since late-November), mid-caps (IJH) and small-caps (IWM) are above supports at $61.50 and $218</li>
</ul>


The Fed injected some volatility into the market after their December meeting, as they noted an uncertain inflation outlook and the SEP less expected rate cuts for 2025.
We discussed in our latest report (12/23/24 ETF Pathfinder), and continue to believe, that this is a buying opportunity.
Market dynamics remain risk-on, the SPX remains above 5850 (a key support level we have discussed since late-November), mid-caps (IJH) and small-caps (IWM) are above supports at $61.50 and $218


Semiconductors Re-Emerge as Leadership; $SPX $QQQ $IWM Outlook Remains Bullish

<ul><li>Last year, I called 2024 the year of AI’s adolescence, and that was quite a call. I “predicted” growing pains or a tremendous growth spurt, and the immense growth spurt happened all right.</li><li>This last year was the year of AI through and through.</li><li>There’s a deep irony because anything related to AI had a phenomenal year while everything else languished. Surprisingly, SOXX underperformed the SPY, which seemed unheard of for the year that SOXX’s largest components ripped 100%+.</li></ul>

Last year, I called 2024 the year of AI’s adolescence, and that was quite a call. I “predicted” growing pains or a tremendous growth spurt, and the immense growth spurt happened all right.This last year was the year of AI through and through.There’s a deep irony because anything related to AI had a phenomenal year while everything else languished. Surprisingly, SOXX underperformed the SPY, which seemed unheard of for the year that SOXX’s largest components ripped 100%+.

External reports (aggregated public sources), Value Investors Club

Value Investors Club (VIC)

External reports (aggregated public sources)

Value Investors Club

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>SiTime is a leading semiconductor company specializing in MEMS timing devices for electronics</li><li>Founded in 2005 in Silicon Valley, later acquired by MegaChips and spun off in 2019 through an IPO</li><li>Positioned to drive industry transition towards MEMS-based systems with exponential improvements in semiconductor technology</li></ul><p><em>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.</em></p>

SiTime is a leading semiconductor company specializing in MEMS timing devices for electronicsFounded in 2005 in Silicon Valley, later acquired by MegaChips and spun off in 2019 through an IPOPositioned to drive industry transition towards MEMS-based systems with exponential improvements in semiconductor technologyThis content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.

Sitime Corp (SITM) - Thursday, Aug 1, 2024

United States

Sitime Corporation develops silicon-based timing solutions. The Company manufacturers oscillators, clock generators, and embedded resonators used for ethernet switches, computing devices, graphics cards, disk drives, mobile phones, and subscriber identity module cards. Sitime serves customers worldwide.

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Sitime Corporation (SITM US)

Semiconductor Outlook 2024: AI's Adolescence

Its time to jog your memory. We've gone through the downturn, what does an upturn look like? The year 2023 began with a significant downturn in the...

Fabricated Knowledge

Earnings: Intel, AMD, ANET, ON, RMBS, SITM, QCOM, QRVO

Let’s first talk about Intel. Intel reported earnings last week, and what a surprise; they managed to have a beat and raise! I wrote about this in...

Fabricated Knowledge

Semiconductors Re-Emerge as Leadership; $SPX $QQQ $IWM Outlook Remains Bullish

Semiconductors Re-Emerge as Leadership $SMH $TSM $NVDA; $SPX $QQQ $IWM Outlook Remains Bullish Despite Recent Consolidation. Market Dynamics Remain...

Vermilion Research

2025 AI & Semiconductor Outlook

Last year, I called 2024 the year of AI’s adolescence, and that was quite a call. I “predicted” growing pains or a tremendous growth spurt, and...

Fabricated Knowledge

Sitime Corp (SITM) - Thursday, Aug 1, 2024

SiTime is a leading semiconductor company specializing in MEMS timing devices for electronics. Founded in 2005 in Silicon Valley, later acquired by...

Value Investors Club (VIC)

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