Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>There are 44 adds/41 deletes for the JPX Nikkei 400 Index to bring the number of index constituents back to 400. There are stocks with multiple days ADV to trade.</li>
<li>Based on the adds, deletes and capping changes, we estimate one way turnover of 7.9% and a round-trip trade of JPY 880bn (US$6bn).</li>
<li>The adds have outperformed the deletes over the last year though that has been faded over the last couple of months. Breaking with history, there could be outperformance near-term.</li>
</ul>


There are 44 adds/41 deletes for the JPX Nikkei 400 Index to bring the number of index constituents back to 400. There are stocks with multiple days ADV to trade.
Based on the adds, deletes and capping changes, we estimate one way turnover of 7.9% and a round-trip trade of JPY 880bn (US$6bn).
The adds have outperformed the deletes over the last year though that has been faded over the last couple of months. Breaking with history, there could be outperformance near-term.


JPX Nikkei 400 Index Rebalance: A Bunch of Chunky Adds & US$6bn Trade

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

BrainBees Solutions / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/brainbees-solutions" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36115:1" rel="noopener">BrainBees Solutions (0172540D IN)</a>, India’s largest multi-channel retailing platform for mothers’, babies’ and kids’ products, will launch an IPO to raise up to US$500 million.</li>
<li>We previously discussed the IPO in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/brainbees-solutions-firstcry-ipo-the-bull-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:125537" rel="noopener">Brainbees Solutions (FirstCry) IPO: The Bull Case</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/brainbees-solutions-firstcry-ipo-the-bear-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:125973" rel="noopener">Brainbees Solutions (FirstCry) IPO: The Bear Case</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/brainbees-solutions-firstcry-ipo-the-investment-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:153804" rel="noopener">Brainbees Solutions (FirstCry) IPO: The Investment Case</a>.</li>
<li>Our valuation analysis suggests that the IPO price range of Rs440-465 per share is attractive. Therefore, we would participate in the IPO.</li>
</ul>



BrainBees Solutions (0172540D IN), India’s largest multi-channel retailing platform for mothers’, babies’ and kids’ products, will launch an IPO to raise up to US$500 million.
We previously discussed the IPO in Brainbees Solutions (FirstCry) IPO: The Bull Case, Brainbees Solutions (FirstCry) IPO: The Bear Case and Brainbees Solutions (FirstCry) IPO: The Investment Case.
Our valuation analysis suggests that the IPO price range of Rs440-465 per share is attractive. Therefore, we would participate in the IPO.


Brainbees Solutions (FirstCry) IPO: Valuation Insights

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/brainbees-solutions" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36115:1" rel="noopener">BrainBees Solutions (0172540D IN)</a>, India’s largest multi-channel retailing platform for mothers’, babies’ and kids’ products, will launch an IPO to raise up to US$500 million.</li>
<li>We previously discussed the IPO in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/brainbees-solutions-firstcry-ipo-the-bull-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:125537" rel="noopener">Brainbees Solutions (FirstCry) IPO: The Bull Case</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/brainbees-solutions-firstcry-ipo-the-bear-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:125973" rel="noopener">Brainbees Solutions (FirstCry) IPO: The Bear Case</a>. In this note, we examine the RHP update.</li>
<li>The RHP shows that positives (KPIs heading in the right direction, margin improvement, lower cash burn) offset the negatives (declining organic growth and deteriorating balance sheet).    </li>
</ul>



BrainBees Solutions (0172540D IN), India’s largest multi-channel retailing platform for mothers’, babies’ and kids’ products, will launch an IPO to raise up to US$500 million.
We previously discussed the IPO in Brainbees Solutions (FirstCry) IPO: The Bull Case and Brainbees Solutions (FirstCry) IPO: The Bear Case. In this note, we examine the RHP update.
The RHP shows that positives (KPIs heading in the right direction, margin improvement, lower cash burn) offset the negatives (declining organic growth and deteriorating balance sheet).    


Brainbees Solutions (FirstCry) IPO: The Investment Case

Japanese Equity Specialist, Ortus Advisors

Andrew Jackson

Japanese Equity Specialist

Ortus Advisors

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Meta and MSFT commented they are seeing benefits from their AI investments, pointing to increased capex positive for JP SPE names.</li>
<li>Advantest upgrading its tester market outlook for both SoC and memory over a solid 1Q earnings print will be positive for 6871 Micronics ahead of numbers.</li>
<li>Japan off the China export ban for now, however the US is unlikely to rollover and allow China unfettered access to cutting edge tech.</li>
</ul>


Meta and MSFT commented they are seeing benefits from their AI investments, pointing to increased capex positive for JP SPE names.
Advantest upgrading its tester market outlook for both SoC and memory over a solid 1Q earnings print will be positive for 6871 Micronics ahead of numbers.
Japan off the China export ban for now, however the US is unlikely to rollover and allow China unfettered access to cutting edge tech.


Japan Morning Connection - 6857 JP, 6871 JP, 6525 JP

<ul>
<li>The review period for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX)</a> September rebalance ended yesterday. There could be three changes at the rebalance with sector balance in focus for the additions.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fast-retailing-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:751:1" rel="noopener">Fast Retailing (9983 JP)</a>'s capping in the index has been confirmed and its index weight will drop by around 0.9% resulting in big selling at the close on 30 September. </li>
<li>Passive trackers will need to buy between 3.5-35x ADV (2.4%-24% of real float) on the inclusions and sell between 3.7-42.5x ADV on the deletions.</li>
</ul>


The review period for the Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) September rebalance ended yesterday. There could be three changes at the rebalance with sector balance in focus for the additions.

Fast Retailing (9983 JP)'s capping in the index has been confirmed and its index weight will drop by around 0.9% resulting in big selling at the close on 30 September. 
Passive trackers will need to buy between 3.5-35x ADV (2.4%-24% of real float) on the inclusions and sell between 3.7-42.5x ADV on the deletions.


Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance Preview (Sep 2024): Review Period Done; Fast Retailing Capping Confirmed

Japan

SoftBank Group Corp. provides telecommunication services. The Company also operates ADSL (Asymmetric Digital Subscriber Line) and fiber optic high-speed Internet connection, e-Commerce businesses, and Internet based advertising and auction businesses.

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Softbank Group (9984 JP)

JPX Nikkei 400 Index Rebalance: A Bunch of Chunky Adds & US$6bn Trade

There are 44 adds/41 deletes for the JPX Nikkei 400 Index resulting in a one-way turnover of 7.9% and a round-trip trade of JPY 880bn (US$6bn)....

Brian Freitas

Brainbees Solutions (FirstCry) IPO: Valuation Insights

Our valuation analysis suggests that the IPO price range of Rs440-465 per share is attractive. Therefore, we would participate in the IPO.

Arun George

Brainbees Solutions (FirstCry) IPO: The Investment Case

The RHP shows that positives (KPIs heading in the right direction, margin improvement, lower cash burn) offset the negatives (declining organic...

Arun George

Japan Morning Connection - 6857 JP, 6871 JP, 6525 JP

Meta and MSFT's AI gains boost capex and JP SPE names. Advantest's strong outlook aids Micronics. Japan lifts China export ban, but US likely to...

Andrew Jackson

Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance Preview (Sep 2024): Review Period Done; Fast Retailing Capping Confirmed

Review period ended yesterday. Fast Retailing's capping will result in a 0.9% drop in index weight. There could be 3 index changes with sector...

Brian Freitas

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52-week Range

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