Equity Analyst - Asia Consumer Sector, Investory

Devi Subhakesan

Equity Analyst - Asia Consumer Sector

ASIA CONSUMER: INSIGHTS AND INVESTMENT IDEAS

Investory

Investory is a Singapore-based boutique independent equity research firm founded in January 2017 with a primary focus on consumption themes across Asia-Pacific.

We aim to generate investible ideas based on consumption trends and outlook. We screen our ideas on several parameters - product potential, long-term growth and management commitment being the most critical.  We follow a fundamental analysis approach in our stock selection process and are not restricted by market cap.

We aspire to grow into a leading source of unbiased research, free of conflict of interest, for investors yearning for independent and disciplined analysis. 

We also undertake bespoke research mandates to support our Institutional clients’ investment needs.

Our team comprises of professionals with extensive experience in the Asian equity markets, in areas ranging from research, servicing institutional clients and investment management.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ola-electric-mobility-pvt-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40618:1" rel="noopener">Ola Electric (1700674D IN)</a> , India's leading electric 2-wheeler backed by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/softbank-group-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:315:1" rel="noopener">Softbank Group</a> 's Vision Fund, will launch its USD 735 million IPO on Friday, August 2.</li>
<li>The IPO pricing suggests a post-money equity valuation of around USD 4 billion, significantly lower than its earlier funding levels.</li>
<li>Government incentives for EVs are being revised, with the current scheme valid only until the end of September, creating uncertainty that has possibly impacted valuations.</li>
</ul>



Ola Electric (1700674D IN) , India's leading electric 2-wheeler backed by Softbank Group 's Vision Fund, will launch its USD 735 million IPO on Friday, August 2.
The IPO pricing suggests a post-money equity valuation of around USD 4 billion, significantly lower than its earlier funding levels.
Government incentives for EVs are being revised, with the current scheme valid only until the end of September, creating uncertainty that has possibly impacted valuations.


Ola Electric: India's First EV IPO - Key Facts, Financials & Valuation

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

<ul>
<li>A group of shareholders aims to raise around US$1.3bn via selling around 11% of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/asics-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16287:1" rel="noopener">ASICS Corp (7936 JP).</a>
</li>
<li>In our earlier note, we talked about the placement and ran the deal through our ECM framework.</li>
<li>In this note, we talk about the updates and share price performance since then.</li>
</ul>


A group of shareholders aims to raise around US$1.3bn via selling around 11% of ASICS Corp (7936 JP).

In our earlier note, we talked about the placement and ran the deal through our ECM framework.
In this note, we talk about the updates and share price performance since then.


ASICS Placement Updates - Share Pop Done, Now Needs to Correct

<ul>
<li>A group of shareholders aims to raise around US$1.3bn via selling around 11% of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/asics-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16287:1" rel="noopener">ASICS Corp (7936 JP)</a>.</li>
<li>For the two large banks, this will be a cleanup of their cross-shareholding.</li>
<li>In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.</li>
</ul>


A group of shareholders aims to raise around US$1.3bn via selling around 11% of ASICS Corp (7936 JP).
For the two large banks, this will be a cleanup of their cross-shareholding.
In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.


ASICS Placement - Needs to Correct, but Watch Out for the Revision Impact

Financials & FinTech research, Galliano’s Financials Research

Victor Galliano

Financials & FinTech research

Financials & FinTech, EM & Developed Markets

Galliano’s Financials Research

Galliano's Financials Research provides fundamental research in Emerging Markets financials, including FinTech, as well as financials in select Developed Markets.

The investment style applied is generally value oriented, although Growth At Reasonable Price (GARP) strategies can also be used where appropriate. 

Our investment research approach aim is often contrarian, looking to capitalise on overly sceptical or optimistic consensus views. In terms of valuation techniques, the focus is on PBV ratio to ROE, PE multiples and dividend yield, as well as the application of PEG ratios and, where appropriate, Sum of the Parts (SOTP) valuations.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Since Elliott Management emerged as a shareholder in SoftBank group last month, the share price has rallied sharply, largely driven by the further appreciation of the Arm Holding share price</li>
<li>SoftBank management is currently focused on growing its Gen AI investment portfolio and appears to have shelved share buybacks for now, which is likely to disappoint minority shareholders</li>
<li>Despite the above challenges and the risk of de-rating at Arm, we remain positive on Softbank shares as they trade at a historically high 54%+ discount to the estimated NAV</li>
</ul>


Since Elliott Management emerged as a shareholder in SoftBank group last month, the share price has rallied sharply, largely driven by the further appreciation of the Arm Holding share price
SoftBank management is currently focused on growing its Gen AI investment portfolio and appears to have shelved share buybacks for now, which is likely to disappoint minority shareholders
Despite the above challenges and the risk of de-rating at Arm, we remain positive on Softbank shares as they trade at a historically high 54%+ discount to the estimated NAV


Softbank (9984 JP): Arm Headwinds Building, but NAV Discount Is Attractive

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The review period for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225 Index</a> September rebalance ends in three weeks. There could be three changes at the rebalance with sector balance used for the additions.</li>
<li>Depending on the changes, passive trackers will need to buy between 3-57x ADV (2.4%-24% of real float) on the inclusions and sell between 3.7-8.4x ADV on the deletions.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fast-retailing-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:751:1" rel="noopener">Fast Retailing (9983 JP)</a>'s index weight is currently higher than 10% and that will result in capping in September. Passives will need to sell 6x ADV in the stock.</li>
</ul>


The review period for the Nikkei 225 Index September rebalance ends in three weeks. There could be three changes at the rebalance with sector balance used for the additions.
Depending on the changes, passive trackers will need to buy between 3-57x ADV (2.4%-24% of real float) on the inclusions and sell between 3.7-8.4x ADV on the deletions.

Fast Retailing (9983 JP)'s index weight is currently higher than 10% and that will result in capping in September. Passives will need to sell 6x ADV in the stock.


Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance Preview (Sep 2024): Potential Adds/Deletes, Capping & Funding Changes

Japan

SoftBank Group Corp. provides telecommunication services. The Company also operates ADSL (Asymmetric Digital Subscriber Line) and fiber optic high-speed Internet connection, e-Commerce businesses, and Internet based advertising and auction businesses.

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Softbank Group (9984 JP)

Ola Electric: India's First EV IPO - Key Facts, Financials & Valuation

Ola Electric's IPO valuation, Investment Positives and Risks, Financials - based on updated information shared in RHP. Also, our take on why...

Devi Subhakesan

ASICS Placement - Needs to Correct, but Watch Out for the Revision Impact

A group of shareholders aims to raise around US$1.3bn via selling around 11% of ASICS Corp (7936 JP). In this note, we talk about the deal dynamics.

Sumeet Singh

Softbank (9984 JP): Arm Headwinds Building, but NAV Discount Is Attractive

Elliott's stake in SoftBank has boosted the share price; focus on Gen AI portfolio over buybacks may disappoint minority shareholders short term,...

Victor Galliano

Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance Preview (Sep 2024): Potential Adds/Deletes, Capping & Funding Changes

We forecast 3 changes for the NKY in September with sector balance determining the inclusions. Fast Retailing will be capped at 10%. Passives need...

Brian Freitas

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Ola Electric: India's First EV IPO - Key Facts, Financials & Valuation

Ola Electric's IPO valuation, Investment Positives and Risks, Financials - based on updated information shared in RHP. Also, our take on why...

Devi Subhakesan

ASICS Placement Updates - Share Pop Done, Now Needs to Correct

A group of shareholders aims to raise around US$1.3bn via selling around 11% of ASICS Corp (7936 JP). We have looked at the deal dyanmics in our...

Sumeet Singh

ASICS Placement - Needs to Correct, but Watch Out for the Revision Impact

A group of shareholders aims to raise around US$1.3bn via selling around 11% of ASICS Corp (7936 JP). In this note, we talk about the deal dynamics.

Sumeet Singh

Softbank (9984 JP): Arm Headwinds Building, but NAV Discount Is Attractive

​Elliott's stake in SoftBank has boosted the share price; focus on Gen AI portfolio over buybacks may disappoint minority shareholders short term,...

Victor Galliano

Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance Preview (Sep 2024): Potential Adds/Deletes, Capping & Funding Changes

We forecast 3 changes for the NKY in September with sector balance determining the inclusions. Fast Retailing will be capped at 10%. Passives need...

Brian Freitas

Elliott's stake in SoftBank has boosted the share price; focus on Gen AI portfolio over buybacks may disappoint minority shareholders short term,...