Financials & FinTech research, Galliano’s Financials Research

Victor Galliano

Financials & FinTech research

Financials & FinTech, EM & Developed Markets

Galliano’s Financials Research

Galliano's Financials Research provides fundamental research in Emerging Markets financials, including FinTech, as well as financials in select Developed Markets.

The investment style applied is generally value oriented, although Growth At Reasonable Price (GARP) strategies can also be used where appropriate. 

Our investment research approach aim is often contrarian, looking to capitalise on overly sceptical or optimistic consensus views. In terms of valuation techniques, the focus is on PBV ratio to ROE, PE multiples and dividend yield, as well as the application of PEG ratios and, where appropriate, Sum of the Parts (SOTP) valuations.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>We believe that Arm is now valued as a “growth at any price” stock; with nearly half of SoftBank group’s equity value reliant on Arm, NAV downside risk is rising</li>
<li>The risk of JPY appreciation is real, whilst SVF2 remains very exposed to financing costs, with 85% of its equity value in private companies</li>
<li>Softbank shares trade at a 55%+ discount to the estimated NAV; yet the downside risks to Arm’s valuation, along with the potential JPY appreciation, should keep the discount wide</li>
</ul>


We believe that Arm is now valued as a “growth at any price” stock; with nearly half of SoftBank group’s equity value reliant on Arm, NAV downside risk is rising
The risk of JPY appreciation is real, whilst SVF2 remains very exposed to financing costs, with 85% of its equity value in private companies
Softbank shares trade at a 55%+ discount to the estimated NAV; yet the downside risks to Arm’s valuation, along with the potential JPY appreciation, should keep the discount wide


Softbank (9984 JP): Relying on Arm Strength and JPY Weakness

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that were covered by the team recently along with updates for upcoming IPOs.</li>
<li>On the IPO front, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/thai-credit-bank-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40192:1" rel="noopener">Thai Credit Bank</a> finally ended Thailand's long dry spell, although it wasn't a happy ending.</li>
<li>For placements, REITs appear to be coming back to life with rates now having peaked.</li>
</ul>


Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that were covered by the team recently along with updates for upcoming IPOs.
On the IPO front, Thai Credit Bank finally ended Thailand's long dry spell, although it wasn't a happy ending.
For placements, REITs appear to be coming back to life with rates now having peaked.


ECM Weekly (12th Feb 2024) - Nissan/Renault, Metcash, Digital Core, SBFC, Thai Credit, Park Hotel

Senior Credit Analyst, Lucror Analytics

Trung Nguyen

Senior Credit Analyst

High Yield Experts

Lucror Analytics

Lucror Analytics is a leading credit and ESG research specialist and a provider of technology solutions for differentiated fixed income strategies. Our roots are in bottom-up fundamental credit analysis with a specialization in high yield corporate credits from Europe, Asia and Latin America. We are one of few research specialists integrating ESG considerations with fundamental credit research through a dedicated ESG platform. Our ESG assessment covers five key criteria: Disclosure, E,S, & G Pillars, Controversies, ESG Impact on Credit and ESG Momentum.

Recognizing the importance and value-add of Factor Investing in fixed income, Lucror developed the Smart Quant Navigator (SQN), an intuitive platform that helps clients devise and implement factor-based strategies ranging from pure quant to active fundamental, with integrated ESG.

Our company has been at the forefront of developments in the fixed income markets, identifying opportunities and consistently delivering new products and value-adding solutions to clients. Lucror has close relationships with the largest and most reputable asset managers, family offices, hedge funds, investment and wealth managers globally.

Credit

<p><br/> Softbank Group's (SBG) Q3/23-24 results were positive as expected, with decent investment gains, a significant increase in NAV, along with stable and healthy LTV. The development came on the back of strong equity markets, at least in the US. Conversely, portfolio diversification has worsened severely. SBG intends to maintain share buybacks while actively making investments.<br/></p>

  Softbank Group's (SBG) Q3/23-24 results were positive as expected, with decent investment gains, a significant increase in NAV, along with stable and healthy LTV. The development came on the back of strong equity markets, at least in the US. Conversely, portfolio diversification has worsened severely. SBG intends to maintain share buybacks while actively making investments. 

Softbank Group - Earnings Flash - Q3 FY 2023-24 Results - Lucror Analytics

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>One year ago we looked at the arrangement between <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nissan-motor-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:72:1" rel="noopener">Nissan (7201 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/renault-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21536:1" rel="noopener">Renault (RNO FP)</a> regarding their relationship, which left Renault with a 28% Nissan stake to be sold.</li>
<li>Since then, Renault has undertaken one selldown but its recent announcement of Ampere’s listing cancellation once again raises the possibility of a further selldown of Nissan’s stake by Renault.</li>
<li>In this note, we talk about the updates since our previous note and the impact of the Ampere listing delay.</li>
</ul>


One year ago we looked at the arrangement between Nissan (7201 JP) and Renault (RNO FP) regarding their relationship, which left Renault with a 28% Nissan stake to be sold.
Since then, Renault has undertaken one selldown but its recent announcement of Ampere’s listing cancellation once again raises the possibility of a further selldown of Nissan’s stake by Renault.
In this note, we talk about the updates since our previous note and the impact of the Ampere listing delay.


Nissan’s Renault Led Selldown Updates - Lack of Ampere Listing Brings Back the US$4bn Overhang

Anta Sports Products / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that were covered by the team recently along with updates for upcoming IPOs.</li>
<li>On the IPO front, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/amer-sports-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21751:1" rel="noopener">Amer Sports (AS US)</a> was priced below its range, while <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/thai-credit-bank-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40192:1" rel="noopener">Thai Credit Bank PCL</a>, managed to get enough support to pull thru. </li>
<li>Given the earnings season, there weren't many placement apart from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/indus-towers-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8922:1" rel="noopener">Indus Towers (INDUSTOW IN)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/metals-acquisition-corp-206b4b4c-e422-4777-bb84-419017ffff10" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:39082:1" rel="noopener">Metals Acquisition (MTAL US)</a>'s CDR offering. </li>
</ul>


Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that were covered by the team recently along with updates for upcoming IPOs.
On the IPO front, Amer Sports (AS US) was priced below its range, while Thai Credit Bank PCL, managed to get enough support to pull thru. 
Given the earnings season, there weren't many placement apart from Indus Towers (INDUSTOW IN) and Metals Acquisition (MTAL US)'s CDR offering. 


ECM Weekly (4th Feb 2024) - Ola Electric, Mixue, Citicore, Amer, Thai Credit, Indus Tower, MTAL

Japan

SoftBank Group Corp. provides telecommunication services. The Company also operates ADSL (Asymmetric Digital Subscriber Line) and fiber optic high-speed Internet connection, e-Commerce businesses, and Internet based advertising and auction businesses.

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Softbank Group (9984 JP)

Softbank (9984 JP): Relying on Arm Strength and JPY Weakness

SoftBank's reliance on Arm's super-premium valuation, the prospect of JPY appreciation and higher funding costs for SVF2 private entities,...

Victor Galliano

ECM Weekly (12th Feb 2024) - Nissan/Renault, Metcash, Digital Core, SBFC, Thai Credit, Park Hotel

Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that were covered by the team recently along with updates for upcoming IPOs.

Sumeet Singh

Softbank Group - Earnings Flash - Q3 FY 2023-24 Results - Lucror Analytics

Softbank Group's (SBG) Q3/23-24 results were positive as expected, with decent investment gains, a significant increase in NAV, along with stable...

Lucror Analytics

Nissan’s Renault Led Selldown Updates - Lack of Ampere Listing Brings Back the US$4bn Overhang

A year ago we looked at the arrangement between Nissan and Renault regarding their relationship, which left Renault with a 28% Nissan stake to be...

Sumeet Singh

ECM Weekly (4th Feb 2024) - Ola Electric, Mixue, Citicore, Amer, Thai Credit, Indus Tower, MTAL

Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that were covered by the team recently along with updates for upcoming IPOs.

Sumeet Singh

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Softbank (9984 JP): Relying on Arm Strength and JPY Weakness

​SoftBank's reliance on Arm's super-premium valuation, the prospect of JPY appreciation and higher funding costs for SVF2 private entities,...

Victor Galliano

ECM Weekly (12th Feb 2024) - Nissan/Renault, Metcash, Digital Core, SBFC, Thai Credit, Park Hotel

Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that were covered by the team recently along with updates for upcoming IPOs.

Sumeet Singh

Softbank Group - Earnings Flash - Q3 FY 2023-24 Results - Lucror Analytics

Softbank Group's (SBG) Q3/23-24 results were positive as expected, with decent investment gains, a significant increase in NAV, along with stable...

Lucror Analytics

Nissan’s Renault Led Selldown Updates - Lack of Ampere Listing Brings Back the US$4bn Overhang

A year ago we looked at the arrangement between Nissan and Renault regarding their relationship, which left Renault with a 28% Nissan stake to be...

Sumeet Singh

ECM Weekly (4th Feb 2024) - Ola Electric, Mixue, Citicore, Amer, Thai Credit, Indus Tower, MTAL

Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that were covered by the team recently along with updates for upcoming IPOs.

Sumeet Singh

SoftBank's reliance on Arm's super-premium valuation, the prospect of JPY appreciation and higher funding costs for SVF2 private entities,...