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Granite Bay Capital

An innovation focussed investment company

Granite Bay Capital is an innovation focussed investment company with a deep focus on the companies at the leading edge of innovation across major themes such as AI, ubiquitous computing, sustainability, automation and longevity.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Headline Developments The battle is on between Fortnite developer Epic Games (private) and Apple (AAPL) - a David and Goliath case which, in a nutshell, will ask whether Apple is acting fairly by charging developers a 15-30% fee for all revenues made via subscriptions and in-app purchases.

Headline Developments The battle is on between Fortnite developer Epic Games (private) and Apple (AAPL) - a David and Goliath case which, in a nutshell, will ask whether Apple is acting fairly by charging developers a 15-30% fee for all revenues made via subscriptions and in-app purchases.

Japan/Asia Long-Short, LightStream Research

Mio Kato

Japan/Asia Long-Short

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

Sony posted OP of ¥972bn coming in just a touch above consensus and significantly below our own estimates of ¥1.12trn. Guidance for next year is overdoing conservatism predicting a 3.3% drop in OP despite a robust 7.8% projected growth in the top line. Our analysis suggests that Sony has joined its gaming brethren in hiding profit in its booming gaming segment and OP should be up very significantly next year.

Sony posted OP of ¥972bn coming in just a touch above consensus and significantly below our own estimates of ¥1.12trn. Guidance for next year is overdoing conservatism predicting a 3.3% drop in OP despite a robust 7.8% projected growth in the top line. Our analysis suggests that Sony has joined its gaming brethren in hiding profit in its booming gaming segment and OP should be up very significantly next year.

Sony – 2021 Conviction Call Hiding Profits

Our FY estimates for Sony going into 3Q were for OP of ¥910bn vs. guidance of ¥700bn. Our estimates themselves were on the conservative side due to uncertainty regarding PS5 launch costs but these concerns proved unfounded as Sony delivered a blowout quarter and raised guidance to ¥940bn. That prompted a 17% rise in Sony share price over two days. We believe another strong quarter is on the cards.

Our FY estimates for Sony going into 3Q were for OP of ¥910bn vs. guidance of ¥700bn. Our estimates themselves were on the conservative side due to uncertainty regarding PS5 launch costs but these concerns proved unfounded as Sony delivered a blowout quarter and raised guidance to ¥940bn. That prompted a 17% rise in Sony share price over two days. We believe another strong quarter is on the cards.

Sony - 2021 High Conviction Call Estimates for Wed Results and Next FY

Our sceptical position on the elevated multiples for tech stocks has been relatively consistent over time. As with all bubbles, despite valuations clearly being out of touch with reality, markets have continued to trend upwards, and in many cases the least attractive stocks have done the best. We would argue that signs of liquidity issues at Ark and the rapid implosion of Archegos herald the beginning of the end.

Our sceptical position on the elevated multiples for tech stocks has been relatively consistent over time. As with all bubbles, despite valuations clearly being out of touch with reality, markets have continued to trend upwards, and in many cases the least attractive stocks have done the best. We would argue that signs of liquidity issues at Ark and the rapid implosion of Archegos herald the beginning of the end.

Softbank – Is Archegos the Bear Stearns CDO Funds in the Coalmine?

Nintendo announced today that it would be tying up with Pokemon Go creator Niantic to develop new mobile titles utilising AR, with the first title set to use Shigeru Miyamoto’s Pikmin franchise. This puts Nintendo in an interesting spot to effectively utilise AR even as rival Sony strengthens its grip on VR with the announcement of the PS5’s version of the PSVR.

Nintendo announced today that it would be tying up with Pokemon Go creator Niantic to develop new mobile titles utilising AR, with the first title set to use Shigeru Miyamoto’s Pikmin franchise. This puts Nintendo in an interesting spot to effectively utilise AR even as rival Sony strengthens its grip on VR with the announcement of the PS5’s version of the PSVR.

Nintendo – Nintendo Targets AR as Sony Consolidates VR

Japan

Sony Corporation manufactures audio, home video game consoles, communications, key device and information technology products for the consumer and professional markets.  The Company's other businesses include music, pictures, computer entertainment, and online businesses.

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Sony Corp (6758 JP)

Weekly Innovation Review (WIRE) #30

Headline Developments The battle is on between Fortnite developer Epic Games (private) and Apple (AAPL) - a David and Goliath case which, in a...

Granite Bay Capital

Sony – 2021 Conviction Call Hiding Profits

Our analysis suggests that Sony has joined its gaming brethren in hiding profit in its booming gaming segment and OP should be up very...

Mio Kato

Sony - 2021 High Conviction Call Estimates for Wed Results and Next FY

Given the 17% move in Sony shares over two days when it last reported, we examine the potential for an earnings beat this year and what earnings...

Mio Kato

Softbank – Is Archegos the Bear Stearns CDO Funds in the Coalmine?

With a lot of signs of market stress emerging following a truly bubbly run up in 2020 we examine the prospects for a stock that has traditionally...

Mio Kato

Nintendo – Nintendo Targets AR as Sony Consolidates VR

There are signs that the gaming world could split between strong AR implementations by Nintendo and strong VR implementations by Sony.

Mio Kato

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