UK Cycle: Bullish Trends Stretch Before Slowing
UK employment growth increased further in Dec-18 despite GDP’s yearend weakness. Higher participation has bolstered the bullish trend but tends to...
541 Views
FLASH: UK Consumer Is Bullish BoB in Jan-19
UK retail sales more than recovered their Dec-18 fall with a Jan-19 resurgence back above an already brisk trend. I still see the BoE as overly...
491 Views
BoE: Extracting the Policy Option Value of Delays
The BoE MPC was unanimous in voting for no policy changes in Feb-19, as widely expected. Hawkish pressures remain in the Bank’s forecast, but the...
571 Views
FLASH: UK GDP Shrinkage Shock in Dec-18
UK monthly GDP disappointed all expectations by falling 0.4% m-o-m in Dec-18, which trimmed 4Q18 to 0.2% q-o-q. IP weighed most, mainly owing to...
447 Views
Preview: UK Disinflation Regulated for Jan-19
The imposition of a household energy price cap in the UK had a significant disinflationary effect in Jan-19 and lowered my CPI and RPI inflation...
461 Views