Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>We maintain a Neutral rating with a new 12-month fair value (12M FV) of Bt42.25 (previously Bt42.75) after revising the profit estimates, based on the earnings yield method with a required return of 8.8%.</li><li>SAWAD remains fundamentally attractive, with its share price implying 22% upside potential to the fair value of Bt42.20..</li><li>The long-term growth is weaker compared to the industry, with profit expected to recover at a 10% CAGR in 2025-27E, driven by lower provisioning. </li></ul>

We maintain a Neutral rating with a new 12-month fair value (12M FV) of Bt42.25 (previously Bt42.75) after revising the profit estimates, based on the earnings yield method with a required return of 8.8%.SAWAD remains fundamentally attractive, with its share price implying 22% upside potential to the fair value of Bt42.20..The long-term growth is weaker compared to the industry, with profit expected to recover at a 10% CAGR in 2025-27E, driven by lower provisioning. 

Srisawad Corporation - To Resume Loan Growth in 2025E

<ul><li>We maintain an Neutral rating and the 12M fair value at Bt42.75, based on the earnings yield with a required return of 8.8%.</li><li>4Q24 profit retreated (-3.3% YoY, -5.9% QoQ) due to a shrinking loan portfolio and narrowing interest margin, while asset quality continued to improve.</li><li>As the loan portfolio contracted more than expected, there is downside risk to our 2025-26E profit forecasts.</li></ul>

We maintain an Neutral rating and the 12M fair value at Bt42.75, based on the earnings yield with a required return of 8.8%.4Q24 profit retreated (-3.3% YoY, -5.9% QoQ) due to a shrinking loan portfolio and narrowing interest margin, while asset quality continued to improve.As the loan portfolio contracted more than expected, there is downside risk to our 2025-26E profit forecasts.

Srisawad Corporation - Reserves and Repossession Losses Decreased, but Loans Contracted

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>The weakness in DELTA and ADVANC, along with a lack of new market catalysts, weighed on the SET.</li><li>However, the index appears to have raised its support zone to 1,271–1,260 points, up from the previous 1,250–1,230 range.</li><li>We therefore maintain our buy-on-dips, sell-on-rallies strategy, as the index still has limited upside and requires a clearer bullish confirmation.</li></ul>

The weakness in DELTA and ADVANC, along with a lack of new market catalysts, weighed on the SET.However, the index appears to have raised its support zone to 1,271–1,260 points, up from the previous 1,250–1,230 range.We therefore maintain our buy-on-dips, sell-on-rallies strategy, as the index still has limited upside and requires a clearer bullish confirmation.

Krungthai XSpring Technical Eng. December 4, 2025

Index Rebal Trades & Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Index Rebal Trades & Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The SET50 index tracks the performance of the top 50 largest and most liquid names listed in the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET). </li>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the potential ADDs/DELs for SET during the index rebal event in June 2024.</li>
<li>There could be three ADDs and three DELs as things stand. There are a couple of names lurking close to the border too.</li>
</ul>


The SET50 index tracks the performance of the top 50 largest and most liquid names listed in the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET). 
In this insight, we take a look at the potential ADDs/DELs for SET during the index rebal event in June 2024.
There could be three ADDs and three DELs as things stand. There are a couple of names lurking close to the border too.


Quiddity Leaderboard SET50 Jun 24: Multiple Changes Possible

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

<ul>
<li>Two thirds of the way through the review period, we see one change for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/stock-exchange-of-thailand-set-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31493:1" rel="noopener">SET 50 Index</a> in December with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kce-electronics-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1892:1" rel="noopener">KCE Electronics (KCE TB)</a> replacing <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ngern-tid-lor-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31103:1" rel="noopener">Ngern Tid Lor (TIDLOR TB)</a>. </li>
<li>There is one close change where <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/i-tail-corp-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36428:1" rel="noopener">I-TAIL (ITC TB)</a> could replace <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/srisawad-corp-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9480:1" rel="noopener">Srisawad Power 1979 (SAWAD TB)</a> in the index.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/delta-electronics-thailand-pcl-98806732-8ac4-42b2-a565-ba32673d1e5a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20912:1" rel="noopener">Delta Electronics Thailand (DELTA TB)</a> is unlikely to be deleted while <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/berli-jucker-public-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3685:1" rel="noopener">Berli Jucker (BJC TB)</a> fails liquidity and is unlikely to be added.</li>
</ul>


Two thirds of the way through the review period, we see one change for the SET 50 Index in December with KCE Electronics (KCE TB) replacing Ngern Tid Lor (TIDLOR TB). 
There is one close change where I-TAIL (ITC TB) could replace Srisawad Power 1979 (SAWAD TB) in the index.

Delta Electronics Thailand (DELTA TB) is unlikely to be deleted while Berli Jucker (BJC TB) fails liquidity and is unlikely to be added.


SET50 Index Rebalance Preview: One High Probability Change; Another One Is Close

Thailand

Srisawad Corporation Public Company Limited operates as a consumer finance company. The Company provides personal secured loans, home loans, loans for international labors, and other related financial products. Srisawad offers its products and services to retail clients in Thailand.

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Srisawad Power 1979 (SAWAD TB)

Srisawad Corporation - To Resume Loan Growth in 2025E

The long-term growth is weaker compared to the industry, with profit expected to recover at a 10% CAGR in 2025-27E, driven by lower provisioning....

Krungthai XSpring

Srisawad Corporation - Reserves and Repossession Losses Decreased, but Loans Contracted

We maintain an Neutral rating and the 12M fair value at Bt42.75, based on the earnings yield with a required return of 8.8%. 4Q24 profit retreated...

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring Technical Eng. December 4, 2025

The weakness in DELTA and ADVANC, along with a lack of new market catalysts, weighed on the SET.However, the index appears to have raised its...

Krungthai XSpring

Quiddity Leaderboard SET50 Jun 24: Multiple Changes Possible

Ngern Tid Lor, I-TAIL, and Bangkok Chain Hospital could be added and Com7, Srisawad Corp , and KCE Electronics could be deleted according to the...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

SET50 Index Rebalance Preview: One High Probability Change; Another One Is Close

KCE could replace TIDLOR in the SET50 in Dec. ITC is a close add and could replace SAWAD. The impact on the stocks is big given the index is...

Brian Freitas

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