Founder, Riedel Research

David Riedel

Founder

Independent equity research on GEM Markets

Riedel Research

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Equity Bottom-Up

China Construction Bank H / Equity Bottom-Up

This interview covers the outlook for Standard Chartered Bank <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/193" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:193:1">Standard Chartered Plc (STAN LN)</a> and the overall banking sector.Recent comments from the IMF and others point to a broad-based, global trend of economic growth.  This is a positive environment for bank earnings.Many of the major banks globally have restored dividends and stock buybacks their capital base has strengthened.  Our Top Pick in EM banks is <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/45" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45:1">China Construction Bank H (939 HK)</a> We believe that CCB is positioned to benefit from…

This interview covers the outlook for Standard Chartered Bank Standard Chartered Plc (STAN LN) and the overall banking sector.Recent comments from the IMF and others point to a broad-based, global trend of economic growth.  This is a positive environment for bank earnings.Many of the major banks globally have restored dividends and stock buybacks their capital base has strengthened.  Our Top Pick in EM banks is China Construction Bank H (939 HK) We believe that CCB is positioned to benefit from…

Review of Global Environment for Bank Stocks - Top Pick in Asia - Riedel CNBC Interview

Silver Point

Thomas J. Monaco

Silver Point is a boutique research firm that focuses on the broader financial services sector, with a particular focus on troubled institutions globally. 

Asia Ex Japan

* Weak 4Q17 Results Guidance: 4Q17 pre-tax results missed Street forecasts by 8%. Revenues were 1% light of consensus while costs were 3% higher. Moving capital targets, weaker UK credit, a poorly structured US business,  and higher operational costs from Brexit give us cause for pause as well.* Is a US Deal Imminent Now?: HSBC’s US business operating profit metrics may actually be the absolute worst of any American bank. If nothing is materially done with the US operation in the immediate term…

* Weak 4Q17 Results Guidance: 4Q17 pre-tax results missed Street forecasts by 8%. Revenues were 1% light of consensus while costs were 3% higher. Moving capital targets, weaker UK credit, a poorly structured US business,  and higher operational costs from Brexit give us cause for pause as well.* Is a US Deal Imminent Now?: HSBC’s US business operating profit metrics may actually be the absolute worst of any American bank. If nothing is materially done with the US operation in the immediate term…

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

* Regulator spread letter and LDR changes could prompt aggressive NIM/spread compression at the Bangladeshi banks.  * Higher capital requirements and USD 7.7 bn of NPLs could prompt further EPS reductions and capital raises. <h2>Summary </h2>Bangladesh Bank (the central bank) chronically tries to encourage its commercial banks to narrow their net lending spreads below 5.0%. 2018 is no different. Bangladesh Bank has instructed eight private banks to reduce their interest rate spread to less than 5.0%…

* Regulator spread letter and LDR changes could prompt aggressive NIM/spread compression at the Bangladeshi banks.  * Higher capital requirements and USD 7.7 bn of NPLs could prompt further EPS reductions and capital raises. Summary Bangladesh Bank (the central bank) chronically tries to encourage its commercial banks to narrow their net lending spreads below 5.0%. 2018 is no different. Bangladesh Bank has instructed eight private banks to reduce their interest rate spread to less than 5.0%…

Bangladesh Banks – Harder Line Being Taken

Asia Commercial Bank/Vietnam / Equity Bottom-Up

* Fully-loaded problem loan figures are a major concern, as is the size of  Level 3 asset and net open short F/X position. Loan loss reserves need a significant shoring up, and there is no doubt, in our view, that some form of major re-capitalization/balance sheet restructure at Asia Commercial Bank (ACB.VN) is on its way.* Not only does Standard Chartered plc (2888.HK/STAN.LN) push the aggressive accounting envelope with its consolidated subsidiaries, but it does so with minority- owned…

* Fully-loaded problem loan figures are a major concern, as is the size of  Level 3 asset and net open short F/X position. Loan loss reserves need a significant shoring up, and there is no doubt, in our view, that some form of major re-capitalization/balance sheet restructure at Asia Commercial Bank (ACB.VN) is on its way.* Not only does Standard Chartered plc (2888.HK/STAN.LN) push the aggressive accounting envelope with its consolidated subsidiaries, but it does so with minority- owned…

Specialist in Indian Banking and Economic Research

Hemindra Hazari

Anil Ambani, chairman, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/5197" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5197:1">Reliance Communications Ltd (RCOM IN)</a>, sounded optimistic at a press conference on December 26, 2017, stating that the company will exit the Strategic Debt Restructuring (SDR) with a zero write-off to lenders, as the company plans to monetize its wireless operations by January-March 2018 and settle its dues. The truth, however, is that banks are preparing to classify the company as a non-performing asset (NPA) if their dues are not paid by December 31. The banking sector has a funded exposure of around Rs 380 bn to the company, and will have to provide 10% (5% already provided at the time of SDR) of their exposure for the quarter ended December if it is classified as NPA.

Anil Ambani, chairman, Reliance Communications Ltd (RCOM IN), sounded optimistic at a press conference on December 26, 2017, stating that the company will exit the Strategic Debt Restructuring (SDR) with a zero write-off to lenders, as the company plans to monetize its wireless operations by January-March 2018 and settle its dues. The truth, however, is that banks are preparing to classify the company as a non-performing asset (NPA) if their dues are not paid by December 31. The banking sector has a funded exposure of around Rs 380 bn to the company, and will have to provide 10% (5% already provided at the time of SDR) of their exposure for the quarter ended December if it is classified as NPA.

Mysterious Saviour for Reliance Communications?

United Kingdom

Standard Chartered PLC is an international banking group operating principally in Asia, Africa, and the Middle East. The Company offers its products and services in the personal, consumer, corporate, institutional and treasury areas.

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Standard Chartered (STAN LN)

Review of Global Environment for Bank Stocks - Top Pick in Asia - Riedel CNBC Interview

This interview covers the outlook for Standard Chartered Bank Standard Chartered Plc (STAN LN) and the overall banking sector.Recent comments from...

David Riedel

HSBC Holdings Plc – Swing & A Miss

* Weak 4Q17 Results Guidance: 4Q17 pre-tax results missed Street forecasts by 8%. Revenues were 1% light of consensus while costs were 3% higher....

Thomas J. Monaco

Bangladesh Banks – Harder Line Being Taken

* Regulator spread letter and LDR changes could prompt aggressive NIM/spread compression at the Bangladeshi banks. * Higher capital requirements...

Thomas J. Monaco

Asia Commercial Bank – Too Much Credit

* Fully-loaded problem loan figures are a major concern, as is the size of Level 3 asset and net open short F/X position. Loan loss reserves need...

Thomas J. Monaco

Mysterious Saviour for Reliance Communications?

Anil Ambani, chairman, Reliance Communications Ltd (RCOM IN), sounded optimistic at a press conference on December 26, 2017, stating that the...

Hemindra Hazari

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