ASEAN Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Angus Mackintosh

ASEAN Insight Provider

Smartkarma

Smartkarma unites the fragmented investment industry, connecting institutional investors, independent research providers, and corporates within a single network.

Research Reinvented

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In this week's ASEAN offering we have some quite controversial commentary on the Singapore Banks, that suggest that there is more pain to come on credit costs. Three Insight Providers comment on Indonesia's current political standoff and the prospects for economy. We have a travel report and overview on Sri Lanka versus other Frontier Vietnam and Pakistan. We ask, can <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/497" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:497:1">Comfortdelgro Corp Ltd (CD SP)</a> win out against innovative competitors and improving public transport? We have interesting post…

In this week's ASEAN offering we have some quite controversial commentary on the Singapore Banks, that suggest that there is more pain to come on credit costs. Three Insight Providers comment on Indonesia's current political standoff and the prospects for economy. We have a travel report and overview on Sri Lanka versus other Frontier Vietnam and Pakistan. We ask, can Comfortdelgro Corp Ltd (CD SP) win out against innovative competitors and improving public transport? We have interesting post…

The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma - Banking Woes, the Rise of the Machines and Big Box Shopping

APAC Investment Strategy, Animal Spirits Report, Quiddity Advisors

Paul M. Kitney, PhD

APAC Investment Strategy, Animal Spirits Report

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

<h2>Executive Summary</h2><ul>
<li>Early focus on trade and protectionism by the Trump administration has not stemmed the reflation regime change. The setback in the USD is temporary and a strong dollar is not dependent on Fiscal Trumponomics</li>
<li>We continue to like Japan and prefer China over India. Animal Spirits is neutral on Emerging Markets.</li>
<li>APAC financials call remains in place.</li>
<li>Macau Tourism play continues to be favored within the Chinese consumer discretionary space.</li>
<li>We continue to avoid "bond proxy" dividend…</li>
</ul>

Executive Summary
Early focus on trade and protectionism by the Trump administration has not stemmed the reflation regime change. The setback in the USD is temporary and a strong dollar is not dependent on Fiscal Trumponomics
We continue to like Japan and prefer China over India. Animal Spirits is neutral on Emerging Markets.
APAC financials call remains in place.
Macau Tourism play continues to be favored within the Chinese consumer discretionary space.
We continue to avoid "bond proxy" dividend…


ANIMAL SPIRITS: Reflationary Investment Thesis Intact Without Fiscal Trumponomics

Independent Insight Provider

Stewart Paterson

Taurus Advisors LLP

Macroeconomics

US Consumer Price Inflation released today surprised to the upside. Core CPI at 2.3% is comfortably above the Fed's inflation target of 2%. As importantly, perhaps, the 12 month moving average for the core inflation - at 2.2% - is at its highest level since the GFC. The last time the twelve month average core CPI was this high AND trending up (as opposed to being in the process of collapsing) was in mid 2006 when the upper bound of the fed fund rate was 5.25%. While the world has change since…

US Consumer Price Inflation released today surprised to the upside. Core CPI at 2.3% is comfortably above the Fed's inflation target of 2%. As importantly, perhaps, the 12 month moving average for the core inflation - at 2.2% - is at its highest level since the GFC. The last time the twelve month average core CPI was this high AND trending up (as opposed to being in the process of collapsing) was in mid 2006 when the upper bound of the fed fund rate was 5.25%. While the world has change since…

Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

We doubt there are many people who believe that China’s banks have especially safe corporate exposure. Few believe the low 1.8% NPL ratio that China’s banks report. So when NPLs and credit costs ratchet higher, it will hurt, but will not be totally unexpected. Singapore is the opposite extreme, and this is what is of real interest: where there is a giant gap between perception and reality. We turn to Google as a proxy on what the world believes.We note the number of results for the search “China…

We doubt there are many people who believe that China’s banks have especially safe corporate exposure. Few believe the low 1.8% NPL ratio that China’s banks report. So when NPLs and credit costs ratchet higher, it will hurt, but will not be totally unexpected. Singapore is the opposite extreme, and this is what is of real interest: where there is a giant gap between perception and reality. We turn to Google as a proxy on what the world believes.We note the number of results for the search “China…

Singapore Banks: A Far Greater Perception-Reality Gap Compared with China Banks

On my Latin key board "I Mera Tis Marmotas" is the closest I can get to the Greek for groundhog day. Traditionally celebrated at the start of February, groundhog day is suppose to portend the arrival of spring but since the 1993 film of the same name has come to mean that feeling of being caught in a repeating time-loop. And so we find that in February 2017, the German Finance Minister, the Greek Prime Minister, the board of the IMF and Greece's Eurozone partners are arguing about the…

On my Latin key board "I Mera Tis Marmotas" is the closest I can get to the Greek for groundhog day. Traditionally celebrated at the start of February, groundhog day is suppose to portend the arrival of spring but since the 1993 film of the same name has come to mean that feeling of being caught in a repeating time-loop. And so we find that in February 2017, the German Finance Minister, the Greek Prime Minister, the board of the IMF and Greece's Eurozone partners are arguing about the…

United Kingdom

Standard Chartered PLC is an international banking group operating principally in Asia, Africa, and the Middle East. The Company offers its products and services in the personal, consumer, corporate, institutional and treasury areas.

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Standard Chartered (STAN LN)

The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma - Banking Woes, the Rise of the Machines and Big Box Shopping

In this week's ASEAN offering we have some quite controversial commentary on the Singapore Banks, that suggest that there is more pain to come on...

Angus Mackintosh

ANIMAL SPIRITS: Reflationary Investment Thesis Intact Without Fiscal Trumponomics

Executive Summary Early focus on trade and protectionism by the Trump administration has not stemmed the reflation regime change. The setback in...

Paul M. Kitney, PhD

Money Matters: US Inflation & The Fed

US Consumer Price Inflation released today surprised to the upside. Core CPI at 2.3% is comfortably above the Fed's inflation target of 2%. As...

Stewart Paterson

Singapore Banks: A Far Greater Perception-Reality Gap Compared with China Banks

We doubt there are many people who believe that China’s banks have especially safe corporate exposure. Few believe the low 1.8% NPL ratio that...

Daniel Tabbush

Money Matters: I Mera Tis Marmotas

On my Latin key board "I Mera Tis Marmotas" is the closest I can get to the Greek for groundhog day. Traditionally celebrated at the start of...

Stewart Paterson

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