'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

ja research

ja research is an independent research platform focused exclusively on Japanese equities. Leveraging data and graphic analysis provided by Japan Analytics, we provide insights on small and medium-sized companies that have been ignored by the sell-side as well as challenging conventional wisdom on larger companies. We also offer analyst and corporate access, the latter with translation if required. 

Quantitative Analysis

<div class="content-caption">
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/082/163/original/2019-03-17_07-32-23.png?1552775594" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="82163"></figure>Source: Japan Analytics
</div>SIDEWAYS - Japanese equities have gove up half of their late-February gains in US dollar terms over the last two weeks. Poised just 1.7% above the fifty-day moving average, last breached to the downside six months ago, the market needs fresh catalysts. <figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/082/164/original/2019-03-17_07-54-56.png?1552777022" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="82164"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source: Japan Analytics</div>BOJ IS BACK - After almost a one-month hiatus, the Bank of Japan resumed purchases of exchange-traded funds, intervening four times in the last nine trading days. Further intervention is to be expected as the market adjusts to the continuing stream of weak macro data.  <figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/082/165/original/2019-03-17_08-15-44.png?1552778203" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="82165"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source: Japan Analytics</div>THANK YOU, MIZUHO - <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/219" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:219:1">Mizuho' s (8411 JP)</a> ¥680b retail branch, software and foreign bond write down, and net profit forecast of ¥80b for FY 2018 has resulted in the market composite forecast for net income falling to ¥43.6t, 5.6% below the November peak. Forecast net income is now 1.2% below the level of one year ago, and seven sectors' forecasts are more than 10% lower than a year ago.   MARKET/SECTOR STRATEGY- We continue to recommend an underweight position in Japan in global portfolios and favour undervalued domestically-orientated companies in the Information Technology, Internet, Media, Transportation, Healthcare and Telecommunications sectors. We would avoid or short the financial sectors Banks, Non-Bank Finance and Multi-Industry. We would underweight the Auto, Machinery, Retail and Other Consumer Products sectors as consumer spending contracts further in the US, Europe, China and Japan. In the DETAIL section below, we will review Sector performance, company results, revisions and stock performance over the previous two weeks, as well as adding some brief comments on the Auto sector,  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/1411" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1411:1">Sumitomo Realty (8830 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/4508" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4508:1">Sekisui House (1928 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/3294" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3294:1">Pigeon (7956 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/8723" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8723:1">Fuji Seal (7864 JP)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/3548" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3548:1">Kawasaki Kisen (9107 JP)</a>


Source: Japan Analytics
SIDEWAYS - Japanese equities have gove up half of their late-February gains in US dollar terms over the last two weeks. Poised just 1.7% above the fifty-day moving average, last breached to the downside six months ago, the market needs fresh catalysts. Source: Japan AnalyticsBOJ IS BACK - After almost a one-month hiatus, the Bank of Japan resumed purchases of exchange-traded funds, intervening four times in the last nine trading days. Further intervention is to be expected as the market adjusts to the continuing stream of weak macro data.  Source: Japan AnalyticsTHANK YOU, MIZUHO - Mizuho' s (8411 JP) ¥680b retail branch, software and foreign bond write down, and net profit forecast of ¥80b for FY 2018 has resulted in the market composite forecast for net income falling to ¥43.6t, 5.6% below the November peak. Forecast net income is now 1.2% below the level of one year ago, and seven sectors' forecasts are more than 10% lower than a year ago.   MARKET/SECTOR STRATEGY- We continue to recommend an underweight position in Japan in global portfolios and favour undervalued domestically-orientated companies in the Information Technology, Internet, Media, Transportation, Healthcare and Telecommunications sectors. We would avoid or short the financial sectors Banks, Non-Bank Finance and Multi-Industry. We would underweight the Auto, Machinery, Retail and Other Consumer Products sectors as consumer spending contracts further in the US, Europe, China and Japan. In the DETAIL section below, we will review Sector performance, company results, revisions and stock performance over the previous two weeks, as well as adding some brief comments on the Auto sector,  Sumitomo Realty (8830 JP), Sekisui House (1928 JP), Pigeon (7956 JP), Fuji Seal (7864 JP), and Kawasaki Kisen (9107 JP)

🇯🇵 Japan • Fortnightly Update - Reverse Gear

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

Those who have been steady observers of the capital structure of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/623" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:623:1">NTT (Nippon Telegraph &amp; Telephone) (9432 JP)</a> have oft-wondered why <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/4221" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4221:1">NTT Urban Development (8933 JP)</a> was left as a virtual 'orphan', left to conduct its business without quite as much input as one might have hoped, and since the GFC, a thorn in the side of owners who thought it should be done better, differently, by a different owner, with bigger ambitions. Today, NTT - which owns 67.3% of the real estate developer/leaser - <a href="http://www.ntt.co.jp/news2018/1810e/pdf/181015a.pdf" target="_blank">announced</a> (<a href="http://www.ntt.co.jp/news2018/1810/pdf/181015a.pdf" target="_blank">J</a>) that it wanted to buy in the 27.7% of NTT Urban that it did not own through a Tender Offer to start October 16th and run 30 business days through November 27th.The price offered is ¥1680/share, which is a 29.8% premium to today's close (28.6% vs Friday), a 31.6% premium to the 1-month average, and 39.2% and 39.8% to the 3-month and 6-month averages to Friday. It is also a 5-year high price and other than a single day May 13th 2013 (just before the first 'Abenomics bubble' burst a week later) - where the shares closed at ¥1688 - the Tender Offer Price is at 10-year high.The deal is subject to a 'two-step' process whereby after a tender offer, NTT will seek to squeeze out minorities. If NTT gets to 90%, there will be a share cash-out demand by NTT to NTT Urban, who will then oblige remaining minorities to sell their shares. If at the end of the tender, NTT owns more than two-thirds of the shares outstanding but less than 90%, NTT will call for Urban to hold an EGM to vote on a consolidation (reverse share split) of shares where odd lots get cashed out. The result of that would be that all minorities would also be cashed out, but it will take longer. The trick here is that NTT already owns more than two-thirds so this is a fait accompli. There is no minimum share tender required to make it successful, and strictly speaking, NTT needs no shares to squeeze out minorities from here.It's all over but the shouting. Even before it starts. <table class="table table-striped"><tbody>
<tr><td colspan="2"><h2> Schedule of Tender Offer </h2></td></tr>
<tr>
<td> Event </td>
<td>Date</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td> Announcement Date </td>
<td>15-Oct-18</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td> Start Date </td>
<td>16-Oct-18</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td> Closing Date </td>
<td>27-Nov-18</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td> Payment Date </td>
<td>4-Dec-18</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Likely Squeeze Out if &gt;90%</td>
<td>early January 2019</td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>More below.

Those who have been steady observers of the capital structure of NTT (Nippon Telegraph &amp; Telephone) (9432 JP) have oft-wondered why NTT Urban Development (8933 JP) was left as a virtual 'orphan', left to conduct its business without quite as much input as one might have hoped, and since the GFC, a thorn in the side of owners who thought it should be done better, differently, by a different owner, with bigger ambitions. Today, NTT - which owns 67.3% of the real estate developer/leaser - announced (J) that it wanted to buy in the 27.7% of NTT Urban that it did not own through a Tender Offer to start October 16th and run 30 business days through November 27th.The price offered is ¥1680/share, which is a 29.8% premium to today's close (28.6% vs Friday), a 31.6% premium to the 1-month average, and 39.2% and 39.8% to the 3-month and 6-month averages to Friday. It is also a 5-year high price and other than a single day May 13th 2013 (just before the first 'Abenomics bubble' burst a week later) - where the shares closed at ¥1688 - the Tender Offer Price is at 10-year high.The deal is subject to a 'two-step' process whereby after a tender offer, NTT will seek to squeeze out minorities. If NTT gets to 90%, there will be a share cash-out demand by NTT to NTT Urban, who will then oblige remaining minorities to sell their shares. If at the end of the tender, NTT owns more than two-thirds of the shares outstanding but less than 90%, NTT will call for Urban to hold an EGM to vote on a consolidation (reverse share split) of shares where odd lots get cashed out. The result of that would be that all minorities would also be cashed out, but it will take longer. The trick here is that NTT already owns more than two-thirds so this is a fait accompli. There is no minimum share tender required to make it successful, and strictly speaking, NTT needs no shares to squeeze out minorities from here.It's all over but the shouting. Even before it starts. 
 Schedule of Tender Offer 

 Event 
Date


 Announcement Date 
15-Oct-18


 Start Date 
16-Oct-18


 Closing Date 
27-Nov-18


 Payment Date 
4-Dec-18


Likely Squeeze Out if &gt;90%
early January 2019

More below.

NTT (9432 JP) Buyout of NTT Urban (8933 JP). FINALLY.

Doing bespoke work since 2002....., Custom Products Group

Patrick Hansen

Doing bespoke work since 2002.....

Custom Products Group

Custom Products was started 14 years ago at Lehman Brothers by current co-founder Patrick Hansen, CFA. After 3 years at Lehman, Patrick moved the team to Macquarie Securities where Simon Rigney (co-founder) joined. 3 years ago we took Custom Products independent. 

Our core strength can be summed up three words. 1- Customization - we have very little off the shelf products and most work is done on a one on one bespoke basis. 2- Speed - We pride ourselves in our ability to get requests back to the client very quickly. 3- Confidentiality - We do not redistribute. There is no grace period where we wait a week and then mass blast. Any request stops with that client.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

If we look at the most recent upgrades, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/5718" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5718:1">Shiseido Co Ltd (4911 JP)</a> and Cosmo Energy (5021 JP) both picked up 3 upgrades in the last 2 weeks. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/18847" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18847:1">TDK Corp (6762 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/17620" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17620:1">JSR Corp (4185 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/1411" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1411:1">Sumitomo Realty &amp; Developmen (8830 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/109" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:109:1">Idemitsu Kosan Co Ltd (5019 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/379" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:379:1">Sumco Corp (3436 JP)</a> all picked up 2 upgrades in the last 2 weeks. <h2>Upgrades in last 2 Weeks</h2><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/032/097/original/2.png?1503417960" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="32097"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source: Custom Products</div>While Shiseido's % of BUY recommendations is still relatively low at 53%, it is at its 5-year high and Shiseido's price has done…

If we look at the most recent upgrades, Shiseido Co Ltd (4911 JP) and Cosmo Energy (5021 JP) both picked up 3 upgrades in the last 2 weeks. TDK Corp (6762 JP), JSR Corp (4185 JP), Sumitomo Realty &amp; Developmen (8830 JP), Idemitsu Kosan Co Ltd (5019 JP) and Sumco Corp (3436 JP) all picked up 2 upgrades in the last 2 weeks. Upgrades in last 2 WeeksSource: Custom ProductsWhile Shiseido's % of BUY recommendations is still relatively low at 53%, it is at its 5-year high and Shiseido's price has done…

Popular and Unpopular Names - Names Analysts Do Like / Do Not Like in Japan....

Leading Independent Investment Research, Morningstar, Inc.

Morningstar

Leading Independent Investment Research

Morningstar, Inc.

Morningstar, Inc. is a leading provider of independent investment research in North America, Europe, Australia, and Asia. We offer an extensive line of products and services for individual investors, financial advisors, asset managers, and retirement plan providers and sponsors. 

Morningstar provides data on more than 500,000 investment offerings, including stocks, mutual funds, and similar vehicles, along with real-time global market data on more than 16 million equities, indexes, futures, options, commodities, and precious metals, in addition to foreign exchange and Treasury markets. Morningstar also offers investment management services through its investment advisory subsidiaries, with more than $180 billion in assets under advisement or management as of June 30, 2015. We have operations in 27 countries.

Download the Morningstar Fact Sheet : http://corporate.morningstar.com/US/documents/MarketingFactSheets/AboutMorningstarFactsheet.pdf

Equity Bottom-Up

Sumitomo Realty & Developmen / Equity Bottom-Up

We raise our fair value estimate for Sumitomo Realty &amp; Development, or SRD, to JPY 3,800 per share, from JPY 3,000 per share previously, representing price/forward earnings at 14.6 times from 14.3 times previously. Our key assumption changes are: (1) better-than-expected margin expansion supported by lower acquisition cost than its peers; and (2) better-than-expected market share gain while Tokyo’s condominium market supply remains tight. We think the share has near-term upside to our fair value estimate as the developer is set to release more condominium units for sale while Tokyo’s condominium market remains undersupplied at least for the next 12 months. Our uncertainty rating has been reduced to medium from high to account for the company's respectable track record on premium pricing for uniquely branded wide product offering with proprietary development methodology. Our no-moat rating with stable outlook remains unchanged given the industry-wide oversupply concerns beyond 2020.Analyst: Mari Kumagai

We raise our fair value estimate for Sumitomo Realty &amp; Development, or SRD, to JPY 3,800 per share, from JPY 3,000 per share previously, representing price/forward earnings at 14.6 times from 14.3 times previously. Our key assumption changes are: (1) better-than-expected margin expansion supported by lower acquisition cost than its peers; and (2) better-than-expected market share gain while Tokyo’s condominium market supply remains tight. We think the share has near-term upside to our fair value estimate as the developer is set to release more condominium units for sale while Tokyo’s condominium market remains undersupplied at least for the next 12 months. Our uncertainty rating has been reduced to medium from high to account for the company's respectable track record on premium pricing for uniquely branded wide product offering with proprietary development methodology. Our no-moat rating with stable outlook remains unchanged given the industry-wide oversupply concerns beyond 2020.Analyst: Mari Kumagai

Higher Margin on Incoming Supplies for the Next Five Years, Lifting Sumitomo R&D's FVE to JPY 3,800

High Beta names do not do well in August in Japan. In fact, August is the worst month out of the year for high Beta names. On the other side, names with a high Retail Investor presence and Quality names do well in August. <figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/030/331/original/1.png?1500926681" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="30331"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source: Custom Products</div>While historically high dividend yield names have done well in August, last year was an exception. Dividend yield names really did not do well in August last year. Aside from Quality and Retail Investor names, short-term momentum is the only other factor…

High Beta names do not do well in August in Japan. In fact, August is the worst month out of the year for high Beta names. On the other side, names with a high Retail Investor presence and Quality names do well in August. Source: Custom ProductsWhile historically high dividend yield names have done well in August, last year was an exception. Dividend yield names really did not do well in August last year. Aside from Quality and Retail Investor names, short-term momentum is the only other factor…

August Is All About Quality and Momentum and Definitely Not About Beta....

Japan

Sumitomo Realty & Development Co., Ltd. develops, manages, and sells houses and condominiums.  The Company also develops and manages real estates in overseas. Sumitomo Realty & Development undertakes infrastructure projects, manages real estate properties, and provides financing services to its customers.  The Company operates fitness clubs and restaurants as well.

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Sumitomo Realty & Developmen (8830 JP)

🇯🇵 Japan • Fortnightly Update - Reverse Gear

SIDEWAYS - Japanese equities have gove up half of their late-February gains in US dollar terms over the last two weeks. Poised just 1.7% above the...

Campbell Gunn

NTT (9432 JP) Buyout of NTT Urban (8933 JP). FINALLY.

Those who have been steady observers of the capital structure of NTT (Nippon Telegraph & Telephone) (9432 JP) have oft-wondered why NTT Urban...

Travis Lundy

Popular and Unpopular Names - Names Analysts Do Like / Do Not Like in Japan....

If we look at the most recent upgrades, Shiseido Co Ltd (4911 JP) and Cosmo Energy (5021 JP) both picked up 3 upgrades in the last 2 weeks. TDK...

Custom Products Group

Higher Margin on Incoming Supplies for the Next Five Years, Lifting Sumitomo R&D's FVE to JPY 3,800

We raise our fair value estimate for Sumitomo Realty & Development, or SRD, to JPY 3,800 per share, from JPY 3,000 per share previously,...

Morningstar, Inc.

August Is All About Quality and Momentum and Definitely Not About Beta....

High Beta names do not do well in August in Japan. In fact, August is the worst month out of the year for high Beta names. On the other side, names...

Custom Products Group

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