HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The HKD hit its upper limit of 7.75/USD. Capital inflows are expected post–Labor Day, likely boosting Hong Kong stock prices.</li>
<li>Mindray faces headwinds. A turnaround may come in 25Q3–Q4, but the market seeks a new growth story. A 20–25x TTM P/E reflects fair value, not undervaluation.</li>
<li>Akeso’s high valuation leans on HARMONi-3 and HARMONi 7 over HARMONi-2. Final OS data raises concerns, as MRCT is challenging and the safety margin is lower than expected.</li>
</ul>


The HKD hit its upper limit of 7.75/USD. Capital inflows are expected post–Labor Day, likely boosting Hong Kong stock prices.
Mindray faces headwinds. A turnaround may come in 25Q3–Q4, but the market seeks a new growth story. A 20–25x TTM P/E reflects fair value, not undervaluation.
Akeso’s high valuation leans on HARMONi-3 and HARMONi 7 over HARMONi-2. Final OS data raises concerns, as MRCT is challenging and the safety margin is lower than expected.


China Healthcare Weekly (May.4)-HK Stock Is About to Soar, Mindray's Trouble,Views on Akeso's Plunge

Shanghai Henlius Biotech  / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The NewCo model can be considered as an "intermediate state" for Chinese biotech companies when they hopes to enter overseas markets, rather than a real success in internationalization.</li>
<li>After the announcement of Pfizer-Summit cooperation, share price of Summit plunged. Pfizer is clearly the beneficiary. The possibility of Summit being acquired could be reduced, which make investors unhappy.</li>
<li>Shares of Henlius surged. Thanks to Lin Lijun's dissenting vote, investors have the opportunity to profit at a higher price.Next goal is to be included in Hong Kong Stock Connect.</li>
</ul>


The NewCo model can be considered as an "intermediate state" for Chinese biotech companies when they hopes to enter overseas markets, rather than a real success in internationalization.
After the announcement of Pfizer-Summit cooperation, share price of Summit plunged. Pfizer is clearly the beneficiary. The possibility of Summit being acquired could be reduced, which make investors unhappy.
Shares of Henlius surged. Thanks to Lin Lijun's dissenting vote, investors have the opportunity to profit at a higher price.Next goal is to be included in Hong Kong Stock Connect.


China Healthcare Weekly (Mar.2) - NewCo Model, Pfizer-Summit Deal, Henlius to Enter HK Stock Connect

<ul>
<li>Based on excellent data in HARMONi-2, Akeso’s investment certainty has significantly increased compared to a year ago. Accordingly, Summit plans to modify the clinical protocol to expand the ongoing HARMONi-3.</li>
<li>If the clinical trials go smoothly, Summit is able to sell AK112 (or the entire company) at a much higher price. Akeso would successfully become a Biopharma and achieve internationalization.</li>
<li>If AK112 is finally approved by the FDA based on HARMONi-2, Akeso’s market value would be higher than Innovent. If HARMONI-3 is successful, market value would be above RMB100 billion.</li>
</ul>


Based on excellent data in HARMONi-2, Akeso’s investment certainty has significantly increased compared to a year ago. Accordingly, Summit plans to modify the clinical protocol to expand the ongoing HARMONi-3.
If the clinical trials go smoothly, Summit is able to sell AK112 (or the entire company) at a much higher price. Akeso would successfully become a Biopharma and achieve internationalization.
If AK112 is finally approved by the FDA based on HARMONi-2, Akeso’s market value would be higher than Innovent. If HARMONI-3 is successful, market value would be above RMB100 billion.


2025 High Conviction – China Healthcare: Chinese Biotech to Compete on the International Stage

<ul>
<li>AK112’s HARMONi-2 results were impressive, but there’s still critical data gap before obtaining approval from FDA. The main concern is whether good PFS can be translated into significant OS benefits.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/akeso-biopharma-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28830:1" rel="noopener">Akeso </a>will be eligible to receive low double-digit royalties on net sales from Summit. So, Summit is actually a better investment because it has complete global rights of AK112.</li>
<li>Investors are betting Summit to be acquired by MNCs at a high price.Due to anti-monopoly issue, the narrowing pool of potential buyers would increase the difficulty of Summit being acquired.</li>
</ul>


AK112’s HARMONi-2 results were impressive, but there’s still critical data gap before obtaining approval from FDA. The main concern is whether good PFS can be translated into significant OS benefits.

Akeso will be eligible to receive low double-digit royalties on net sales from Summit. So, Summit is actually a better investment because it has complete global rights of AK112.
Investors are betting Summit to be acquired by MNCs at a high price.Due to anti-monopoly issue, the narrowing pool of potential buyers would increase the difficulty of Summit being acquired.


Akeso Biopharma Inc (9926 HK) - Something Beautiful Is Happening

<ul>
<li>One interesting interpretation of the new Akeso-summit cooperation is that it aims to pave the way for potential acquisition of Summit by MNC. The climax of the story hasn’t arrived.</li>
<li>Jacobio is a good target for potential M&amp;A and licensing deals. So, this company has considerable potential returns and also strong safety margin, which is worth taking a gamble on.</li>
<li>There’re concerns that Genscript could face US scrutiny due to alleged ties with Chinese government. Share price rebound may not last considering geopolitical conflicts and CXO industry downturn in 24H1.</li>
</ul>


One interesting interpretation of the new Akeso-summit cooperation is that it aims to pave the way for potential acquisition of Summit by MNC. The climax of the story hasn’t arrived.
Jacobio is a good target for potential M&amp;A and licensing deals. So, this company has considerable potential returns and also strong safety margin, which is worth taking a gamble on.
There’re concerns that Genscript could face US scrutiny due to alleged ties with Chinese government. Share price rebound may not last considering geopolitical conflicts and CXO industry downturn in 24H1.


China Healthcare Weekly (Jun.9) - New Akeso-Summit Deal, Jacobio Is a Good Bet, Genscript's Trouble

United States

Summit Therapeutics Inc. operates as a biopharmaceutical company. The Company focuses on developing new mechanism antibiotics for the treatment of people with infectious diseases. Summit Therapeutics serves customers in the United States and the United Kingdom.

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Summit Therapeutics (SMMT US)

China Healthcare Weekly (May.4)-HK Stock Is About to Soar, Mindray's Trouble,Views on Akeso's Plunge

HKD exchange rate at upper limit, capital influx expected post Labor Day. Mindray facing challenges, with turning point in 2026. Akeso's high...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

China Healthcare Weekly (Mar.2) - NewCo Model, Pfizer-Summit Deal, Henlius to Enter HK Stock Connect

The NewCo model is just an "intermediate state" for Chinese Biotech. After Pfizer-Summit deal, the possibility of Summit being acquired is reduced....

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

2025 High Conviction – China Healthcare: Chinese Biotech to Compete on the International Stage

Akeso's investment certainty increases based on promising HARMONi-2 data, leading to potential market value surpassing Innovent and reaching above...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Akeso Biopharma Inc (9926 HK) - Something Beautiful Is Happening

AK112's HARMONi-2 results show promise, but FDA approval depends on OS. Summit is actually a better investment than Akeso. Investors bet Summit to...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

China Healthcare Weekly (Jun.9) - New Akeso-Summit Deal, Jacobio Is a Good Bet, Genscript's Trouble

The new Akeso-Summit deal may pave the way for MNC to acquire Summit.Jacobio is a good target for potential M&A/license deal.Genscript faces US...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

China Healthcare Weekly (May.4)-HK Stock Is About to Soar, Mindray's Trouble,Views on Akeso's Plunge

​HKD exchange rate at upper limit, capital influx expected post Labor Day. Mindray facing challenges, with turning point in 2026. Akeso's high...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

China Healthcare Weekly (Mar.2) - NewCo Model, Pfizer-Summit Deal, Henlius to Enter HK Stock Connect

The NewCo model is just an "intermediate state" for Chinese Biotech. After Pfizer-Summit deal, the possibility of Summit being acquired is reduced....

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

2025 High Conviction – China Healthcare: Chinese Biotech to Compete on the International Stage

​Akeso's investment certainty increases based on promising HARMONi-2 data, leading to potential market value surpassing Innovent and reaching above...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Akeso Biopharma Inc (9926 HK) - Something Beautiful Is Happening

​AK112's HARMONi-2 results show promise, but FDA approval depends on OS. Summit is actually a better investment than Akeso. Investors bet Summit to...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

China Healthcare Weekly (Jun.9) - New Akeso-Summit Deal, Jacobio Is a Good Bet, Genscript's Trouble

​The new Akeso-Summit deal may pave the way for MNC to acquire Summit.Jacobio is a good target for potential M&A/license deal.Genscript faces US...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

HKD exchange rate at upper limit, capital influx expected post Labor Day. Mindray facing challenges, with turning point in 2026. Akeso's high...

Akeso's investment certainty increases based on promising HARMONi-2 data, leading to potential market value surpassing Innovent and reaching above...

AK112's HARMONi-2 results show promise, but FDA approval depends on OS. Summit is actually a better investment than Akeso. Investors bet Summit to...

The new Akeso-Summit deal may pave the way for MNC to acquire Summit.Jacobio is a good target for potential M&A/license deal.Genscript faces US...