Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR

<ul>
<li>TSMC: +28.4% Premium; Near-All-Time High, Good Level to Short the Spread</li>
<li>UMC: -0.4% Discount; Fifth Consecutive Month of Increase in ADR Headroom</li>
<li>CHT: -0.9% Discount; Good Level to Go Long the Spread</li>
</ul>


TSMC: +28.4% Premium; Near-All-Time High, Good Level to Short the Spread
UMC: -0.4% Discount; Fifth Consecutive Month of Increase in ADR Headroom
CHT: -0.9% Discount; Good Level to Go Long the Spread


Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Premium Near All-Time Highs; CHT Rare Discount Level

<ul>
<li>Latest TSMC Price Hike -- Introducing the $18,000 Wafer; Supports The Case That Management Margin Guidance is Overly Conservative</li>
<li>Mover Over Apple, Nvidia Could Become TSMC's Largest Customer in 2025E</li>
<li>SK Hynix(000660.KS): Insisting on HBM Technology and Continuing to Surpass Samsung in Net Earnings </li>
</ul>


Latest TSMC Price Hike -- Introducing the $18,000 Wafer; Supports The Case That Management Margin Guidance is Overly Conservative
Mover Over Apple, Nvidia Could Become TSMC's Largest Customer in 2025E
SK Hynix(000660.KS): Insisting on HBM Technology and Continuing to Surpass Samsung in Net Earnings 


Taiwan Tech Weekly: Latest TSMC Pricing for Apple Supports Bullish Margin Case; SK Hynix's HBM Win

Taiwan Tech Focused Senior Analyst

Patrick Liao

<ul>
<li>After the peak of 4Q24, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taiwan-semiconductor-sp-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8587:1" rel="noopener">Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR (TSM US)</a>'s  revenue will see a decline of about -5% QoQ in 1Q25.  </li>
<li>TSMC is expected to use 2nm technology in 4Q25, and we believe <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/advanced-micro-devices-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19009:1" rel="noopener">Advanced Micro Devices (AMD US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/apple-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:666:1" rel="noopener">Apple (AAPL US)</a> could present products around 1Q26.</li>
<li>TSMC could be set to announce its 2nm production plans, expansion into the US, Germany, and Japan, mature technology quotations, and the Capex budget for 2025. </li>
</ul>


After the peak of 4Q24, Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR (TSM US)'s  revenue will see a decline of about -5% QoQ in 1Q25.  
TSMC is expected to use 2nm technology in 4Q25, and we believe Advanced Micro Devices (AMD US) and Apple (AAPL US) could present products around 1Q26.
TSMC could be set to announce its 2nm production plans, expansion into the US, Germany, and Japan, mature technology quotations, and the Capex budget for 2025. 


TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): 1Q25 Outlook, TSMC Will Use 2nm in 4Q25, and Production Will Occur in 1Q26.

Chief Executive Officer, Emmer Capital Partners Limited

Manishi Raychaudhuri

Chief Executive Officer

Emmer Capital Partners Limited

Emmer Capital Partners is an Asia Pacific focused financial advisory firm engaging in strategic financial asset allocation advice, bespoke thematic research and advising early-stage companies and connecting them to investors. Emmer Capital provides macro-economic and multi-asset investment strategy inputs to institutions, family offices, private wealth managers, private equity, and corporate boards directly and through independent research platforms. Emmer Capital also advises a wide range of startup companies on fund raising and business strategy. Emmer Capital's active engagement with the print and electronic media reaches a broad spectrum of investors across the globe.

<ul>
<li>Since the last rebalancing of our portfolio on 5th September, it has returned 13.5% vs 9.5% from MSCI-Asia-ex-Japan. Since inception (15th May), our portfolio has appreciated 20.1% vs MXASJ's 18.6%.</li>
<li>Six stocks, SK Hynix, TSMC, Samsung Electronics, Alibaba, China Hongqiao, Tencent, contributed almost the entire return of our portfolio. Overweight on Korea drove more than half the portfolio's return.</li>
<li>We turn more selective on Chinese discretionary consumption and step into the Korean defense sector. We exclude Anta Sports and Mediatek and include Hyundai Rotem and Hon Hai Precision.</li>
</ul>


Since the last rebalancing of our portfolio on 5th September, it has returned 13.5% vs 9.5% from MSCI-Asia-ex-Japan. Since inception (15th May), our portfolio has appreciated 20.1% vs MXASJ's 18.6%.
Six stocks, SK Hynix, TSMC, Samsung Electronics, Alibaba, China Hongqiao, Tencent, contributed almost the entire return of our portfolio. Overweight on Korea drove more than half the portfolio's return.
We turn more selective on Chinese discretionary consumption and step into the Korean defense sector. We exclude Anta Sports and Mediatek and include Hyundai Rotem and Hon Hai Precision.


Asian Equities: Model Portfolio Outperformed Sharply; Less China Consumption, More Korea Defence

<ul>
<li>TSMC: +21.1% Premium; Spread Has Fallen From Previous Short Levels, Remains Elevated</li>
<li>UMC: -0.3% Discount; Middle of the Historical Trading Range, Not Compelling</li>
<li>ChipMOS: -1.2% Discount; Wait for Deeper Discount Before Going Long</li>
</ul>


TSMC: +21.1% Premium; Spread Has Fallen From Previous Short Levels, Remains Elevated
UMC: -0.3% Discount; Middle of the Historical Trading Range, Not Compelling
ChipMOS: -1.2% Discount; Wait for Deeper Discount Before Going Long


Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Spread Decline from Near Historical Highs; ChipMOS Discount

Taiwan

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Ltd. manufactures integrated circuits based on its proprietary designs.  The Company offers a comprehensive set of integrated circuit fabrication processes to manufacture CMOS logic, mixed-mode, volatile and non-volatile memory and BiCMOS chips.  Taiwan Semiconductor is an affiliate of Philips Electronics N.V.

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR (TSM US)

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
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TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR (TSM US)

Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Premium Near All-Time Highs; CHT Rare Discount Level

We analyze the premium and discount levels of dual-listed Taiwan companies, suggesting potential spread trading levels based on historical trends.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Taiwan Tech Weekly: Latest TSMC Pricing for Apple Supports Bullish Margin Case; SK Hynix's HBM Win

TSMC's price hike and potential shift in top customers could impact margins, while SK Hynix maintains lead over Samsung in earnings with focus on...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): 1Q25 Outlook, TSMC Will Use 2nm in 4Q25, and Production Will Occur in 1Q26.

TSMC's revenue to decline in 1Q25, but expected to use 2nm technology by 4Q25 with potential partnerships with AMD and Apple by 1Q26. Expansion...

Patrick Liao

Asian Equities: Model Portfolio Outperformed Sharply; Less China Consumption, More Korea Defence

China's economic data (FAI & industrial growth sharply lower than expected, retail sales growth underwhelming) underscores the need for nuanced...

Manishi Raychaudhuri

Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Spread Decline from Near Historical Highs; ChipMOS Discount

We analyze the premium and discount levels of dual-listed Taiwan companies, suggesting potential spread trading levels based on historical trends.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Premium Near All-Time Highs; CHT Rare Discount Level

We analyze the premium and discount levels of dual-listed Taiwan companies, suggesting potential spread trading levels based on historical trends.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Taiwan Tech Weekly: Latest TSMC Pricing for Apple Supports Bullish Margin Case; SK Hynix's HBM Win

​TSMC's price hike and potential shift in top customers could impact margins, while SK Hynix maintains lead over Samsung in earnings with focus on...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): 1Q25 Outlook, TSMC Will Use 2nm in 4Q25, and Production Will Occur in 1Q26.

​TSMC's revenue to decline in 1Q25, but expected to use 2nm technology by 4Q25 with potential partnerships with AMD and Apple by 1Q26. Expansion...

Patrick Liao

Asian Equities: Model Portfolio Outperformed Sharply; Less China Consumption, More Korea Defence

China's economic data (FAI & industrial growth sharply lower than expected, retail sales growth underwhelming) underscores the need for nuanced...

Manishi Raychaudhuri

Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Spread Decline from Near Historical Highs; ChipMOS Discount

We analyze the premium and discount levels of dual-listed Taiwan companies, suggesting potential spread trading levels based on historical trends.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

TSMC's price hike and potential shift in top customers could impact margins, while SK Hynix maintains lead over Samsung in earnings with focus on...

TSMC's revenue to decline in 1Q25, but expected to use 2nm technology by 4Q25 with potential partnerships with AMD and Apple by 1Q26. Expansion...