Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing)

<ul>
<li>WSTS is revising up Semiconductor demand for 2024 and 2025, AI demand higher than expected. Taiwan AI Server ODM revenues are still booming, impressive numbers.</li>
<li>Samsung and SK Hynix expediting new LPDDR “In Memory Processing” for Nvidia in 2026. TSMC forecast AI demand 3x increase to 2026.</li>
<li>Intel 18A low yield and low density brings new light on management reshuffle. TSMC N2 is ~20% ahead. Apple trying its own 5G modem, again.</li>
</ul>


WSTS is revising up Semiconductor demand for 2024 and 2025, AI demand higher than expected. Taiwan AI Server ODM revenues are still booming, impressive numbers.
Samsung and SK Hynix expediting new LPDDR “In Memory Processing” for Nvidia in 2026. TSMC forecast AI demand 3x increase to 2026.
Intel 18A low yield and low density brings new light on management reshuffle. TSMC N2 is ~20% ahead. Apple trying its own 5G modem, again.


Tech News: Semi Revised Up, TSMC CoWoS up 3x, Hynix Speeding up for Nvidia, Intel 18A Behind TSMC N2

Chief Executive Officer, Emmer Capital Partners Limited

Manishi Raychaudhuri

Chief Executive Officer

Emmer Capital Partners Limited

Emmer Capital Partners is an Asia Pacific focused financial advisory firm engaging in strategic financial asset allocation advice, bespoke thematic research and advising early-stage companies and connecting them to investors. Emmer Capital provides macro-economic and multi-asset investment strategy inputs to institutions, family offices, private wealth managers, private equity, and corporate boards directly and through independent research platforms. Emmer Capital also advises a wide range of startup companies on fund raising and business strategy. Emmer Capital's active engagement with the print and electronic media reaches a broad spectrum of investors across the globe.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Over 2024 and 2025, Asia-ex-Japan equities are up c30%. During this period, the 12-month forward EPS has expanded only 5.6%. Forward EPS recovery is essential to take the market higher.</li>
<li>Over the medium to long term, share prices track earnings, as we notice in our long-term analysis of forward EPS trajectory and market movement. Disjoint movements usually mean revert quickly.</li>
<li>Forward EPS could move up further in China, Korea, Taiwan and Thailand. Hong Kong has overshot its forward EPS trajectory. Philippines has massively undershot. Other markets appear broadly in line.</li>
</ul>


Over 2024 and 2025, Asia-ex-Japan equities are up c30%. During this period, the 12-month forward EPS has expanded only 5.6%. Forward EPS recovery is essential to take the market higher.
Over the medium to long term, share prices track earnings, as we notice in our long-term analysis of forward EPS trajectory and market movement. Disjoint movements usually mean revert quickly.
Forward EPS could move up further in China, Korea, Taiwan and Thailand. Hong Kong has overshot its forward EPS trajectory. Philippines has massively undershot. Other markets appear broadly in line.


Asian Equities: After Two Years of Rerating, Will Earnings Catch up in 2026?

Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR

<ul>
<li>Last week at SEMICON, TSMC unveiled COUPE, moving silicon photonics from lab demos into industrial-scale advanced packaging.</li>
<li>Himax, ASE, Zhen Ding, GlobalWafers, ACON, and Accton form Taiwan’s listed ecosystem for silicon photonics adoption.</li>
<li>As NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US)-driven AI clusters proliferate, the power and cost of moving data between chips have become as constraining as compute itself.</li>
</ul>


Last week at SEMICON, TSMC unveiled COUPE, moving silicon photonics from lab demos into industrial-scale advanced packaging.
Himax, ASE, Zhen Ding, GlobalWafers, ACON, and Accton form Taiwan’s listed ecosystem for silicon photonics adoption.
As NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US)-driven AI clusters proliferate, the power and cost of moving data between chips have become as constraining as compute itself.


TSMC’s COUPE Signals Silicon Photonics Go-Time — Early Winners in Taiwan’s Listed Supply Chain

<ul>
<li>2Q26 (Jul-25) revenue growth 56% YoY, despite a sharp decline in China revenue (-24% YoY). No H20 revenues from China. H20 charges normalize, margins improve, Net Income 5% above Consensus. </li>
<li>3Q26 revenue growth stable at 54% YoY, not including any H20 revenues from China. Upside from H20 at $2-5bn, max revenue growth 68% YoY. 3Q guidance ~3% above Consensus.   </li>
<li>The stock is not expensive. Trading at its average 47x trailing PEx, 33x forward. Very little risk to Consensus expectations over FY26-28. </li>
</ul>


2Q26 (Jul-25) revenue growth 56% YoY, despite a sharp decline in China revenue (-24% YoY). No H20 revenues from China. H20 charges normalize, margins improve, Net Income 5% above Consensus. 
3Q26 revenue growth stable at 54% YoY, not including any H20 revenues from China. Upside from H20 at $2-5bn, max revenue growth 68% YoY. 3Q guidance ~3% above Consensus.   
The stock is not expensive. Trading at its average 47x trailing PEx, 33x forward. Very little risk to Consensus expectations over FY26-28. 


NVDA 2Q26 (Jul-25) Small Beat. 3Q26 (Sept-25) Small Beat. Everything Is on Track, Don’t Blink.

<ul>
<li>A major Intel balance sheet boost, backed by SoftBank, the U.S. government, and leading institutions, would enhance the company’s capacity to make bold bets on regaining global chip manufacturing leadership.</li>
<li>UMC's market valuation is less than the capex for just one advanced fab. Intel would likely make a gain on its investment since it would cause UMC shares to rally.</li>
<li>For less than the cost of a single advanced fab, a large company could acquire UMC and gain chipmaking expertise approaching TSMC’s level; boosting returns across an entire fab network.</li>
</ul>


A major Intel balance sheet boost, backed by SoftBank, the U.S. government, and leading institutions, would enhance the company’s capacity to make bold bets on regaining global chip manufacturing leadership.
UMC's market valuation is less than the capex for just one advanced fab. Intel would likely make a gain on its investment since it would cause UMC shares to rally.
For less than the cost of a single advanced fab, a large company could acquire UMC and gain chipmaking expertise approaching TSMC’s level; boosting returns across an entire fab network.


A Defining Bet: Intel’s New Capital and the Case for Buying a Stake in Taiwan's UMC

Taiwan

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Ltd. manufactures integrated circuits based on its proprietary designs.  The Company offers a comprehensive set of integrated circuit fabrication processes to manufacture CMOS logic, mixed-mode, volatile and non-volatile memory and BiCMOS chips.  Taiwan Semiconductor is an affiliate of Philips Electronics N.V.

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR (TSM US)

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TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR (TSM US)

Tech News: Semi Revised Up, TSMC CoWoS up 3x, Hynix Speeding up for Nvidia, Intel 18A Behind TSMC N2

Semi revised up for 2024 and 2025, with AI demand exceeding expectations. Taiwan AI Server ODM revenues continue to soar. Samsung, Hynix, TSMC...

Nicolas Baratte

Asian Equities: After Two Years of Rerating, Will Earnings Catch up in 2026?

Asia-ex-Japan equities have surged, but forward EPS growth is lagging. Nascent signs of EPS recovery in CN, KR, TW & TH. HK market has overshot...

Manishi Raychaudhuri

TSMC’s COUPE Signals Silicon Photonics Go-Time — Early Winners in Taiwan’s Listed Supply Chain

TSMC's COUPE at SEMICON advances silicon photonics for industrial-scale packaging, with Taiwan's ecosystem poised for adoption in AI networking...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

NVDA 2Q26 (Jul-25) Small Beat. 3Q26 (Sept-25) Small Beat. Everything Is on Track, Don’t Blink.

Nvidia strong revenue growth in 2Q26 and 3Q26 despite decline in China revenue, with upside potential from H20 and margins improving. Stock not...

Nicolas Baratte

A Defining Bet: Intel’s New Capital and the Case for Buying a Stake in Taiwan's UMC

Intel's balance sheet improvement is a major opportunity -- Intel should invest in UMC to create a win-win combination that can rival TSMC...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Tech News: Semi Revised Up, TSMC CoWoS up 3x, Hynix Speeding up for Nvidia, Intel 18A Behind TSMC N2

​Semi revised up for 2024 and 2025, with AI demand exceeding expectations. Taiwan AI Server ODM revenues continue to soar. Samsung, Hynix, TSMC...

Nicolas Baratte

Asian Equities: After Two Years of Rerating, Will Earnings Catch up in 2026?

​Asia-ex-Japan equities have surged, but forward EPS growth is lagging. Nascent signs of EPS recovery in CN, KR, TW & TH. HK market has overshot...

Manishi Raychaudhuri

TSMC’s COUPE Signals Silicon Photonics Go-Time — Early Winners in Taiwan’s Listed Supply Chain

​TSMC's COUPE at SEMICON advances silicon photonics for industrial-scale packaging, with Taiwan's ecosystem poised for adoption in AI networking...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

NVDA 2Q26 (Jul-25) Small Beat. 3Q26 (Sept-25) Small Beat. Everything Is on Track, Don’t Blink.

Nvidia strong revenue growth in 2Q26 and 3Q26 despite decline in China revenue, with upside potential from H20 and margins improving. Stock not...

Nicolas Baratte

A Defining Bet: Intel’s New Capital and the Case for Buying a Stake in Taiwan's UMC

​Intel's balance sheet improvement is a major opportunity -- Intel should invest in UMC to create a win-win combination that can rival TSMC...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Semi revised up for 2024 and 2025, with AI demand exceeding expectations. Taiwan AI Server ODM revenues continue to soar. Samsung, Hynix, TSMC...

Asia-ex-Japan equities have surged, but forward EPS growth is lagging. Nascent signs of EPS recovery in CN, KR, TW & TH. HK market has overshot...

TSMC's COUPE at SEMICON advances silicon photonics for industrial-scale packaging, with Taiwan's ecosystem poised for adoption in AI networking...

Intel's balance sheet improvement is a major opportunity -- Intel should invest in UMC to create a win-win combination that can rival TSMC...