Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

European Event-driven Analyst

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Since mid-July, spreads have generally tightened across our liquid universe, including those flagged in July (Investor AB, Roche and Volkswagen).</li>
<li>Trade recommendations long ords / short prefs: Fuchs Petrolub, SSAB Svenska Stal.</li>
<li>Recommendations Long prefs / short ords: Sixt, VW, MFE-Media for Europe, Telecom Italia, Ericsson.</li>
</ul>

<h3><strong>Trends</strong></h3>
<p>There has been no obvious trend over the last two months regarding the discounts, although it has widened in some names. Some of the previous (May and June) recommendations have been bang on. Trading opportunities are less obvious, but some still exist.</p>
<h3><strong>Recommended trades</strong></h3>
<ul class="">
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/carlsberg-a-s" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Carlsberg A/S (CARLB DC)</a>: close trade long B/short A shares (B are trading at 4.4% discount from 12% in June).</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bayerische-motoren-werke-ag" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Bayerische Motoren Werke AG (BMW GR)</a> : the discount has widened to 23% from 18% by mid-August, as a result of recent volatility. I would recommend setting up a trade <strong>long BMW prefs, short ords</strong> with a target of a 15% discount.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fuchs-petrolub-se" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Fuchs Petrolub Se (FPE GR)</a> 's premium of preferred shares is a whopping 33.6% currently. Remember that <em>voting rights are valuable</em>. Recommendation: <strong>long ords/short prefs</strong>, with a 10% target.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/henkel-ag-co-kgaa" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Henkel AG &amp; Co Kgaa (HEN3 GR)</a> The premium of the preferred shares is 15.4%. I would set up a trade <strong>long prefs/short common shares</strong> with a 10% discount target.</li>
<li>Voting rights are valuable in a company like <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/volkswagen-ag" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21738:1" rel="noopener">Volkswagen (VOW GR)</a> , so a <strong>5.8% discount of the prefs</strong>. seems about right. If you believe that the higher liquidity of the prefs will, at some point, mean that the discount will close, then a long prefs/short ords may be an option; plus it can be executed in size. The discount tightened since the March selloff and has been moving within a tight range. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/grifols-sa" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Grifols SA (GRF SM)</a> B shares are trading at a 41.9% discount (vs. 38% in June). The discount in Grifols B shares has averaged 28% since listing of the B shares in February 2016. I recommend setting up the trade <strong>long B shares traded on Nasdaq, short A shares traded in Madrid</strong>. The target is a 27% discount. Please note there is FX risk, which can be hedged.</li>
<li>The discount in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/telefonaktiebolaget-lm-ericsso" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22354:1" rel="noopener">Telefonaktiebolaget Lm Ericsso (ERICB SS)</a> (Ericsson) B shares has tightened since my July recommendation: from 8.7% to 7.7%. I would keep the trade on with a 3% discount target.</li>
</ul>
<p>Please read on for table and charts.</p>

<h3><strong>Trends</strong></h3>
<p>The general trend of the last month has been a reduction of the premiums and tightening of the discounts. Some of the previous (May and June)recommendations have been bang on. Trading opportunities are less obvious, but some still exist.</p>
<h3><strong>Recommended trades</strong></h3>
<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bayerische-motoren-werke-ag" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21591:1" rel="noopener">Bayerische Motoren Werke AG (BMW GR)</a> exhibited a trend towards a reduction of the discount of preferred shares. Now the discount is 24%, as a result of recent volatility. I would recommend setting up a trade<span class="apple-converted-space"> </span><strong>long BMW prefs, short ords</strong> with a target of a 12% discount.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fuchs-petrolub-se" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Fuchs Petrolub Se (FPE GR)</a> 's premium seems to vary within a range, which is probably liquidity related. It is 23.7% currently. Remember that voting rights are valuable. The recommendation is setting up <strong>long ords/short prefs</strong>, with a 10% target.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/henkel-ag-co-kgaa" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Henkel AG &amp; Co Kgaa (HEN3 GR)</a> shows a long-term trend towards a reduction of the premium of the preferred shares. The premium is 12.9%. I would set up a trade long prefs/short common shares with a 10% discount target.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/grifols-sa" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Grifols SA (GRF SM)</a>. Grifols B shares are trading at a 37% discount (vs. 38% in the last report), there is a trend towards the tightening of this discount since mid-March. The discount in Grifols B shares has averaged 26.7% over the last four years. I recommend setting up the trade<span class="apple-converted-space"> </span><strong>long B shares traded on Nasdaq, short A shares traded in Madrid</strong>. The target is a 27% discount. Please note there is FX risk, which can be hedged.</li>
<li>There is an 8.7% discount in Ericsson B shares (<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/telefonaktiebolaget-lm-ericsso" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22354:1" rel="noopener">Telefonaktiebolaget Lm Ericsso (ERICB SS)</a> ). Setting up long B shares, short A shares seems tempting.</li>
</ul>
<p>Please read on for table and charts.</p>

<ul>
<li>Discounts have generally widened across our liquid universe, in line with the recent market losses. </li>
<li>Recommendations long ords / short prefs: BMW, Fuchs Petrolub, Investor AB, SSAB.</li>
<li>Recommendations long prefs / short ords: Sixt, VW, Danieli, MFE, Grifols, Atlas Copco, Ericsson Handelsbanken, Roche, Schroders.</li>
</ul>

<ul>
<li>Spreads have generally tightened across our liquid universe, in line with the recent market gains.</li>
<li>Recommendations long ords / short prefs: Fuchs Petrolub, Investor AB, SSAB.</li>
<li>Recommendations long prefs / short ords: Sixt, VW, Danieli, MFE, Grifols, Atlas Copco, Ericsson Handelsbanken, Roche, Schroders.</li>
</ul>

Sweden

Telefonaktiebolaget LM Ericsson develops and manufactures network equipment and software, as well as services for network and business operations. The Company's portfolio also includes products for the enterprise, cable, mobile platform and power module markets.

Telefonaktiebolaget Lm Ericsso - ERICB SS

Description