Equity/Index & Cross Asset Volatility Specialist, Cameron Design

Jay Cameron

Equity/Index & Cross Asset Volatility Specialist

Cameron Design

We specialize in financial products and volatility. Our strategies balance speed, data, and risk control to capture opportunities across global markets. Our research leverages AI and data analytics to continuously refine our algorithms and adapt to evolving market dynamics.

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>Japanese banks are entering a new, structurally sound phase driven by the BoJ's policy pivot, which is fundamentally elevating Net Interest Income and profitability.</li>
<li>Capital efficiency and mandatory corporate governance reforms are set to significantly close the P/B gap against global peers.</li>
<li>TOPIX Bank Index could be poised for continued outperformance over the broader market, making it an essential, high-conviction portfolio exposure as 8303 Shinsei returns to the index.</li>
</ul>


Japanese banks are entering a new, structurally sound phase driven by the BoJ's policy pivot, which is fundamentally elevating Net Interest Income and profitability.
Capital efficiency and mandatory corporate governance reforms are set to significantly close the P/B gap against global peers.
TOPIX Bank Index could be poised for continued outperformance over the broader market, making it an essential, high-conviction portfolio exposure as 8303 Shinsei returns to the index.


Japanese Banks: TPNBNK Structural Sector Buy-Case, Preparing for Shinsei (8303) January Passive Flow

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tsuruha-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9536:1" rel="noopener">Tsuruha Holdings (3391 JP)</a> acquires <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/welcia-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20895:1" rel="noopener">Welcia Holdings (3141 JP)</a> in just over 4 weeks. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aeon-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3:1" rel="noopener">Aeon Co Ltd (8267 JP)</a>'s tender offer for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tsuruha-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9536:1" rel="noopener">Tsuruha Holdings (3391 JP)</a> could commence in December/January.</li>
<li>The enlarged <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tsuruha-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9536:1" rel="noopener">Tsuruha Holdings (3391 JP)</a> could migrate upward in the MGlobal Index and that will bring in large passive flows. But there is one thing to watch out for.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tsuruha-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9536:1" rel="noopener">Tsuruha Holdings (3391 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/welcia-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20895:1" rel="noopener">Welcia Holdings (3141 JP)</a> have outperformed peers over the last 6 months and now trade at a higher forward PE.</li>
</ul>



Tsuruha Holdings (3391 JP) acquires Welcia Holdings (3141 JP) in just over 4 weeks. Aeon Co Ltd (8267 JP)'s tender offer for Tsuruha Holdings (3391 JP) could commence in December/January.
The enlarged Tsuruha Holdings (3391 JP) could migrate upward in the MGlobal Index and that will bring in large passive flows. But there is one thing to watch out for.

Tsuruha Holdings (3391 JP) and Welcia Holdings (3141 JP) have outperformed peers over the last 6 months and now trade at a higher forward PE.


Tsuruha (3391 JP)/Welcia (3141 JP): Index Promotion & Passive Flows Likely Priced In

<ul>
<li>Bain Capital is looking to place 36m shares of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kioxia-holdings-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29243:1" rel="noopener">Kioxia Holdings (285A JP)</a> to overseas investors at a 7-9% discount to the last close of the stock.</li>
<li>The stock has run up a lot since its IPO with the last leg driven by inclusion in a global index that took place at the close on Friday.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toshiba-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:637:1" rel="noopener">Toshiba (6502 JP)</a> had already been selling stock, and the Bain selling could take the stock lower, especially with limited passive buying in the short-term to support the big runup.</li>
</ul>


Bain Capital is looking to place 36m shares of Kioxia Holdings (285A JP) to overseas investors at a 7-9% discount to the last close of the stock.
The stock has run up a lot since its IPO with the last leg driven by inclusion in a global index that took place at the close on Friday.

Toshiba (6502 JP) had already been selling stock, and the Bain selling could take the stock lower, especially with limited passive buying in the short-term to support the big runup.


Kioxia (285A JP) Placement: Limited Passive Buying & Big Runup Opens Up More Downside

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sbi-shinsei-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16897:1" rel="noopener">SBI Shinsei Bank (8303 JP)</a>'s listing has been approved by the JPX and the stock is expected to start trading on the Prime Market from 17 December.</li>
<li>At the indicated IPO price of ¥1,440/share, the IPO will raise up to ¥367.6bn (US$2.38bn) and value <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sbi-shinsei-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16897:1" rel="noopener">SBI Shinsei Bank (8303 JP)</a> up to ¥1,290bn (US$8.34bn).</li>
<li>The stock should be added to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tokyo-stock-exchange-tokyo-price-index-topix" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22910:1" rel="noopener">TOPIX INDEX</a> at the close on 29 January while inclusion in global indices should take place in May and June.</li>
</ul>



SBI Shinsei Bank (8303 JP)'s listing has been approved by the JPX and the stock is expected to start trading on the Prime Market from 17 December.
At the indicated IPO price of ¥1,440/share, the IPO will raise up to ¥367.6bn (US$2.38bn) and value SBI Shinsei Bank (8303 JP) up to ¥1,290bn (US$8.34bn).
The stock should be added to the TOPIX INDEX at the close on 29 January while inclusion in global indices should take place in May and June.


SBI Shinsei Bank (8303 JP) IPO: TPX Add in Jan; Global Index: One in May; One in June

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toshiba-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:637:1" rel="noopener">Toshiba Corp (6502 JP)</a> has sold over 5% of shares outstanding in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kioxia-holdings-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29243:1" rel="noopener">Kioxia Holdings (285A JP)</a> over the last month as the stock has run up.</li>
<li>The increased market cap and higher float should result in index inclusion and passive buying for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kioxia-holdings-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29243:1" rel="noopener">Kioxia Holdings (285A JP)</a> in November. Then an upweight in another index in December.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toshiba-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:637:1" rel="noopener">Toshiba Corp (6502 JP)</a>'s selling could also lead to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kioxia-holdings-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29243:1" rel="noopener">Kioxia Holdings (285A JP)</a> meeting JPX's tradable share ratio and removes an overhang for the stock.</li>
</ul>



Toshiba Corp (6502 JP) has sold over 5% of shares outstanding in Kioxia Holdings (285A JP) over the last month as the stock has run up.
The increased market cap and higher float should result in index inclusion and passive buying for Kioxia Holdings (285A JP) in November. Then an upweight in another index in December.

Toshiba Corp (6502 JP)'s selling could also lead to Kioxia Holdings (285A JP) meeting JPX's tradable share ratio and removes an overhang for the stock.


Kioxia (285A JP): Toshiba Selling Leads to Passive Buying & Removes Overhang

Japan

The TOPIX, also known as the Tokyo Stock Price Index, is a capitalization-weighted index of all companies listed on the First Section of the Tokyo Stock Exchange. The index is supplemented by the subindices of the 33 industry sectors. The index calculation excludes temporary issues and preferred stocks, and has a base value of 100 as of January 4, 1968.

TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX (TPX INDEX)

Japanese Banks: TPNBNK Structural Sector Buy-Case, Preparing for Shinsei (8303) January Passive Flow

Japanese banks are experiencing improved profitability due to the BoJ's policy changes, also evidenced by 8303 Shinsei re-listing, leading to...

Jay Cameron

Tsuruha (3391 JP)/Welcia (3141 JP): Index Promotion & Passive Flows Likely Priced In

Passives trade Tsuruha and Welcia at the close today. Net flat across TOPIX and FGlobal but there is a fair bit to buy from MGlobal trackers. Both...

Brian Freitas

Kioxia (285A JP) Placement: Limited Passive Buying & Big Runup Opens Up More Downside

Toshiba unloaded a lot of Kioxia shares in Sep/Oct. Now Bain is selling US$2bn+ of stock and there could be more next year. The recent results...

Brian Freitas

SBI Shinsei Bank (8303 JP) IPO: TPX Add in Jan; Global Index: One in May; One in June

The SBI Shinsei Bank IPO could raise up to US$2.38bn, valuing the company at US$8.34bn. Topix inclusion in Jan, MGlobal possibly in May. FGlobal...

Brian Freitas

Kioxia (285A JP): Toshiba Selling Leads to Passive Buying & Removes Overhang

Kioxia was up 98.55% from when this insight was published to yesterday's close. Toshiba sold another 16.5m shares over the last month (and a total...

Brian Freitas

Japanese Banks: TPNBNK Structural Sector Buy-Case, Preparing for Shinsei (8303) January Passive Flow

​Japanese banks are experiencing improved profitability due to the BoJ's policy changes, also evidenced by 8303 Shinsei re-listing, leading to...

Jay Cameron

Tsuruha (3391 JP)/Welcia (3141 JP): Index Promotion & Passive Flows Likely Priced In

Passives trade Tsuruha and Welcia at the close today. Net flat across TOPIX and FGlobal but there is a fair bit to buy from MGlobal trackers. Both...

Brian Freitas

Kioxia (285A JP) Placement: Limited Passive Buying & Big Runup Opens Up More Downside

Toshiba unloaded a lot of Kioxia shares in Sep/Oct. Now Bain is selling US$2bn+ of stock and there could be more next year. The recent results...

Brian Freitas

SBI Shinsei Bank (8303 JP) IPO: TPX Add in Jan; Global Index: One in May; One in June

The SBI Shinsei Bank IPO could raise up to US$2.38bn, valuing the company at US$8.34bn. Topix inclusion in Jan, MGlobal possibly in May. FGlobal...

Brian Freitas

Kioxia (285A JP): Toshiba Selling Leads to Passive Buying & Removes Overhang

Kioxia was up 98.55% from when this insight was published to yesterday's close. Toshiba sold another 16.5m shares over the last month (and a total...

Brian Freitas

Japanese banks are experiencing improved profitability due to the BoJ's policy changes, also evidenced by 8303 Shinsei re-listing, leading to...