Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>
Context: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyota-motor-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:73:1" rel="noopener">Toyota Motor (7203 JP)</a> rallied 3.2% in Wednesday's morning session. Quantitative models highlight potential for a short-term pull-back.</li>
<li>
Trade Idea: Three actionable option strategies with a bearish tilt are presented, taking advantage of current implied volatility levels and skew.</li>
<li>
Why Read: This Insight combines directional analysis with volatility signals, highlighting a tactical options strategy where high implied volatility and bearish probabilities align, offering investors defined risk/reward.</li>
</ul>



Context: Toyota Motor (7203 JP) rallied 3.2% in Wednesday's morning session. Quantitative models highlight potential for a short-term pull-back.

Trade Idea: Three actionable option strategies with a bearish tilt are presented, taking advantage of current implied volatility levels and skew.

Why Read: This Insight combines directional analysis with volatility signals, highlighting a tactical options strategy where high implied volatility and bearish probabilities align, offering investors defined risk/reward.


Toyota (7203 JP) Up 3.2% Today: Tactical Bearish Option Strategies as Pullback Looms

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/softbank-group-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:315:1" rel="noopener">Softbank Group (9984 JP)</a>'s weight in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX)</a> has broken through 10% and staying there will lead to capping at the March rebalance.</li>
<li>Nearly half of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/softbank-group-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:315:1" rel="noopener">Softbank Group</a>'s float is held by passive trackers, and the real float is much lower. Capping will increase the real float by a few percentage points.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/softbank-group-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:315:1" rel="noopener">Softbank Group</a> has outperformed the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX)</a> significantly over the last 6 months and cumulative excess volume has started to increase sharply. Watch out for pullbacks.</li>
</ul>



Softbank Group (9984 JP)'s weight in the Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) has broken through 10% and staying there will lead to capping at the March rebalance.
Nearly half of Softbank Group's float is held by passive trackers, and the real float is much lower. Capping will increase the real float by a few percentage points.

Softbank Group has outperformed the Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) significantly over the last 6 months and cumulative excess volume has started to increase sharply. Watch out for pullbacks.


Softbank Group (9984 JP): Breaks Through the 10% Nikkei225 Cap

<ul>
<li>The recent rally has taken <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/seibu-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:458:1" rel="noopener">Seibu Holdings (9024 JP)</a>' stock price to a new high. The increased market cap should result in global index inclusion in November.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/seibu-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:458:1" rel="noopener">Seibu Holdings (9024 JP)</a> has outperformed its peers by a wide margin, over the last couple of years and in the short-term.</li>
<li>While there has been an increase in positioning in the stock over the last few weeks, it does not different materially from what we see in its peers.</li>
</ul>


The recent rally has taken Seibu Holdings (9024 JP)' stock price to a new high. The increased market cap should result in global index inclusion in November.

Seibu Holdings (9024 JP) has outperformed its peers by a wide margin, over the last couple of years and in the short-term.
While there has been an increase in positioning in the stock over the last few weeks, it does not different materially from what we see in its peers.


Seibu Holdings (9024 JP): Big Outperformance and Global Index Inclusion

<ul>
<li>After the recent rally, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ebara-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4728:1" rel="noopener">Ebara Corp (6361 JP)</a>'s increased market cap and free float market cap should result in inclusion in a global index in November.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ebara-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4728:1" rel="noopener">Ebara Corp (6361 JP)</a> has underperformed its larger peers, and the stock is trading cheaper than the average of its peers on most metrics.</li>
<li>There has been a large increase in cumulative excess volume for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ebara-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4728:1" rel="noopener">Ebara Corp (6361 JP)</a> since July and we do not see a similar increase in its peers.</li>
</ul>


After the recent rally, Ebara Corp (6361 JP)'s increased market cap and free float market cap should result in inclusion in a global index in November.

Ebara Corp (6361 JP) has underperformed its larger peers, and the stock is trading cheaper than the average of its peers on most metrics.
There has been a large increase in cumulative excess volume for Ebara Corp (6361 JP) since July and we do not see a similar increase in its peers.


Ebara (6361 JP): Global Index Inclusion & Increased Positioning

<ul>
<li>The sharp rally in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jx-advanced-metals-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:44346:1" rel="noopener">JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP)</a> over the last couple of months should result in inclusion in a global index in November.</li>
<li>The stock is already a member of the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tokyo-stock-exchange-tokyo-price-index-topix" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22910:1" rel="noopener">TOPIX Index</a> and another global index, and this inclusion will require passive trackers to buy a big chunk of the real float.</li>
<li>There will be more passive buying in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jx-advanced-metals-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:44346:1" rel="noopener">JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP)</a> in April when the liquidity factor in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tokyo-stock-exchange-tokyo-price-index-topix" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22910:1" rel="noopener">TOPIX Index</a> increases from 0.75 to 1.</li>
</ul>


The sharp rally in JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP) over the last couple of months should result in inclusion in a global index in November.
The stock is already a member of the TOPIX Index and another global index, and this inclusion will require passive trackers to buy a big chunk of the real float.
There will be more passive buying in JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP) in April when the liquidity factor in the TOPIX Index increases from 0.75 to 1.


JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP): Global Index Inclusion in November to Support Stock

Japan

The TOPIX, also known as the Tokyo Stock Price Index, is a capitalization-weighted index of all companies listed on the First Section of the Tokyo Stock Exchange. The index is supplemented by the subindices of the 33 industry sectors. The index calculation excludes temporary issues and preferred stocks, and has a base value of 100 as of January 4, 1968.

TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX (TPX INDEX)

Toyota (7203 JP) Up 3.2% Today: Tactical Bearish Option Strategies as Pullback Looms

Explore three actionable bearish option strategies as Toyota (7203 JP) rallies 3.5%. Capitalize on elevated volatility and flat skew while...

Gaudenz Schneider

Softbank Group (9984 JP): Breaks Through the 10% Nikkei225 Cap

The stock price surge has taken Softbank Group's weight in the NKY to 10.26%. Staying there will mean capping in March, and selling from passive...

Brian Freitas

Seibu Holdings (9024 JP): Big Outperformance and Global Index Inclusion

Seibu could be added to a global index in Nov. The stock has run up a lot and outperformed peers. Positioning is in line with peers. The large...

Brian Freitas

Ebara (6361 JP): Global Index Inclusion & Increased Positioning

Ebara should be added to a global index in November. The stock has moved higher but still trades cheaper than its peers. There has been increased...

Brian Freitas

JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP): Global Index Inclusion in November to Support Stock

JXAM should be added to a global index in Nov. There will be passive buying from TPX trackers in April. Short interest has increased sharply in the...

Brian Freitas