Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
Exchange holidays: Early October holidays in China (Golden Week) and South Korea (Chuseok) may dampen market activity, while India’s Diwali on 21–22 October brings the traditional Muhurat trading session.</li>
<li>
Earnings season begins in the final third of October across India, Japan, China/Hong Kong, and South Korea, alongside key central bank meetings and the TOPIX rebalance on 30 October.</li>
<li>
Why Read: Plan ahead and take into account known market events when making investment and trading decision.</li>
</ul>



Exchange holidays: Early October holidays in China (Golden Week) and South Korea (Chuseok) may dampen market activity, while India’s Diwali on 21–22 October brings the traditional Muhurat trading session.

Earnings season begins in the final third of October across India, Japan, China/Hong Kong, and South Korea, alongside key central bank meetings and the TOPIX rebalance on 30 October.

Why Read: Plan ahead and take into account known market events when making investment and trading decision.


Earnings Kickoff Dominates October 2025 Key Events

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The ex-date for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sony-financial-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:564:1" rel="noopener">Sony Financial Group (8729 JP)</a>'s spinoff from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sony-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:563:1" rel="noopener">Sony Corp (6758 JP)</a> is 29 September. There will be passive flows at the close on the day.</li>
<li>There will be no selling from the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tokyo-stock-exchange-tokyo-price-index-topix" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22910:1" rel="noopener">TOPIX Index</a> and Fglobal trackers. There will be selling from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX)</a> trackers and potentially from Mglobal trackers.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sony-financial-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:564:1" rel="noopener">Sony Financial Group (8729 JP)</a> has announced a buyback of up to 1bn shares (13.99% of shares out) over the next year and that will support the stock.</li>
</ul>


The ex-date for Sony Financial Group (8729 JP)'s spinoff from Sony Corp (6758 JP) is 29 September. There will be passive flows at the close on the day.
There will be no selling from the TOPIX Index and Fglobal trackers. There will be selling from Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) trackers and potentially from Mglobal trackers.

Sony Financial Group (8729 JP) has announced a buyback of up to 1bn shares (13.99% of shares out) over the next year and that will support the stock.


Sony Financial (8729 JP) Spinoff from Sony Group (6758 JP): Potential Index Flows

<ul>
<li>
Context: The Bank of Japan (BoJ) will announce its monetary policy decision on Friday, 19 September 2025. Unlike most central banks, the BoJ announces its decisions flexibly, usually around noon.</li>
<li>
Highlight: Analysis of the past 13 meetings hints at patterns linking longer meetings and delayed announcements with policy changes, including a surprise hike in July 2024.</li>
<li>
Why it Matters: This analysis helps investors interpret timing signals ahead of the 19 September decision, assessing whether delay itself could hint at an outcome shift.</li>
</ul>



Context: The Bank of Japan (BoJ) will announce its monetary policy decision on Friday, 19 September 2025. Unlike most central banks, the BoJ announces its decisions flexibly, usually around noon.

Highlight: Analysis of the past 13 meetings hints at patterns linking longer meetings and delayed announcements with policy changes, including a surprise hike in July 2024.

Why it Matters: This analysis helps investors interpret timing signals ahead of the 19 September decision, assessing whether delay itself could hint at an outcome shift.


Bank of Japan’s Rate Decision on Sept 19: Does Timing Signal the Outcome?

Index Rebal Trades & Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Index Rebal Trades & Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Japan Business Systems  / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>Quiddity's "Who is Ready" series of insights aims to objectively identify names listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange that are potential additions to the TOPIX Index in future.</li>
<li>Our long-term TOPIX Inclusion pre-event candidate <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/core-concept-technologies-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34323:1" rel="noopener">Core Concept Technologies Inc (4371 JP)</a> has experienced a sharp price decline and has moved further away from the required thresholds for Section Transfers.</li>
<li>Separately, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/japan-business-systems-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40379:1" rel="noopener">Japan Business Systems (5036 JP)</a> has announced a potential move to the Prime market which could result in a TOPIX inclusion in late-October 2025.</li>
</ul>


Quiddity's "Who is Ready" series of insights aims to objectively identify names listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange that are potential additions to the TOPIX Index in future.
Our long-term TOPIX Inclusion pre-event candidate Core Concept Technologies Inc (4371 JP) has experienced a sharp price decline and has moved further away from the required thresholds for Section Transfers.
Separately, Japan Business Systems (5036 JP) has announced a potential move to the Prime market which could result in a TOPIX inclusion in late-October 2025.


TOPIX Inclusions: Who Is Ready (Sep 2025)

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass), with Int’l Compass reports all echoing this sentiment.</li>
<li>China (Shanghai Composite) has been a major focus ever since our July 3 report titled "China and Japan Breaking Out," and it's pulling back toward 10-year base support at 3675-3725;buy.</li>
<li>Japan's TOPIX and TOPIX Small indexes remain bullish (BUY), but RS remains below multi-month resistances; we would upgrade Japan to overweight on RS breakouts.</li>
</ul>


We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass), with Int’l Compass reports all echoing this sentiment.
China (Shanghai Composite) has been a major focus ever since our July 3 report titled "China and Japan Breaking Out," and it's pulling back toward 10-year base support at 3675-3725;buy.
Japan's TOPIX and TOPIX Small indexes remain bullish (BUY), but RS remains below multi-month resistances; we would upgrade Japan to overweight on RS breakouts.


Buys in Japan and Europe; China Pulling Back -- Buy; MSCI ACWI Uptrend Intact

Japan

The TOPIX, also known as the Tokyo Stock Price Index, is a capitalization-weighted index of all companies listed on the First Section of the Tokyo Stock Exchange. The index is supplemented by the subindices of the 33 industry sectors. The index calculation excludes temporary issues and preferred stocks, and has a base value of 100 as of January 4, 1968.

TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX (TPX INDEX)

Earnings Kickoff Dominates October 2025 Key Events

October 2025 kicks off earnings season – reports from Fast Retailing (9983 JP), ICICI Bank (ICICIB IN) & more – alongside holidays and central bank...

Gaudenz Schneider

Sony Financial (8729 JP) Spinoff from Sony Group (6758 JP): Potential Index Flows

Sony Financial starts trading today. Nikkei 225 index trackers will sell at the close and the buyback could mop up some of that selling.

Brian Freitas

Bank of Japan’s Rate Decision on Sept 19: Does Timing Signal the Outcome?

The Bank of Japan (BoJ) will announce its monetary policy decision on Friday, 19 September 2025. The BoJ announces its decisions flexibly, usually...

Gaudenz Schneider

TOPIX Inclusions: Who Is Ready (Sep 2025)

There are currently 143 names that satisfy all 5 key Segment Transfer requirements based on current data. Another 145 names can satisfy 4 out of 5...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Buys in Japan and Europe; China Pulling Back -- Buy; MSCI ACWI Uptrend Intact

Buys in Japan and Europe; China's Shanghai Composite Pulling Back to 10-year Base Support -- Buy; MSCI $ACWI Uptrend Intact. Actionable Themes:...

Vermilion Research