Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Ahead of the Bank of Japan’s 31 July 2025 policy meeting, markets broadly expect rates to remain on hold at 0.5%.</li>
<li>The new US–Japan trade deal may influence the tone of the upcoming quarterly outlook—if not the rate decision itself.</li>
<li>With limited precedent for rate changes but a high rate of surprises when they do occur, this Insight combines historical data with option-implied volatility to help investors assess tail risks.</li>
</ul>


Ahead of the Bank of Japan’s 31 July 2025 policy meeting, markets broadly expect rates to remain on hold at 0.5%.
The new US–Japan trade deal may influence the tone of the upcoming quarterly outlook—if not the rate decision itself.
With limited precedent for rate changes but a high rate of surprises when they do occur, this Insight combines historical data with option-implied volatility to help investors assess tail risks.


Bank of Japan’s Rate Decision on 31 July: Market Calm, Watch for Tail Risk

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

<ul>
<li>KKR HKE Investment is offering 30m shares (12.86% of shares out) of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kokusai-electric-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40152:1" rel="noopener">Kokusai Electric (6525 JP)</a> in a secondary offering that could raise up to JPY 91bn (US$620m).</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/applied-materials-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:283:1" rel="noopener">Applied Materials (AMAT US)</a> will become the largest shareholder in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kokusai-electric-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40152:1" rel="noopener">Kokusai Electric (6525 JP)</a> after the placement.</li>
<li>There will not be a lot of buying from passive trackers following the placement, but it could ease the way for inclusion of the stock in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225 Index</a>.</li>
</ul>


KKR HKE Investment is offering 30m shares (12.86% of shares out) of Kokusai Electric (6525 JP) in a secondary offering that could raise up to JPY 91bn (US$620m).

Applied Materials (AMAT US) will become the largest shareholder in Kokusai Electric (6525 JP) after the placement.
There will not be a lot of buying from passive trackers following the placement, but it could ease the way for inclusion of the stock in the Nikkei 225 Index.


Kokusai Electric (6525 JP): Small Index Impact for Now, but Could Lead to Something Bigger

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>
Context: Central Bank rate decisions, index changes and political events can move markets and affect volatility. Exchange holidays and option expiration schedules might influence liquidity on these days.</li>
<li>
Highlights: Earnings season keeps several regional markets busy through early to mid-August. Meanwhile, three central banks in the region are scheduled to hold monetary policy meetings spaced across the month.</li>
<li>
Why Read: Plan ahead and take into account known market events when making investment and trading decision.</li>
</ul>



Context: Central Bank rate decisions, index changes and political events can move markets and affect volatility. Exchange holidays and option expiration schedules might influence liquidity on these days.

Highlights: Earnings season keeps several regional markets busy through early to mid-August. Meanwhile, three central banks in the region are scheduled to hold monetary policy meetings spaced across the month.

Why Read: Plan ahead and take into account known market events when making investment and trading decision.


The Month Ahead: Key Events in August 2025

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>
Context: On 23 July 2025, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyota-motor-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:73:1" rel="noopener">Toyota Motor (7203 JP)</a> surged 14.3%, driven by macro factors tied to tariffs. This Insight examines how that sharp move affected the stock’s volatility surface.</li>
<li>
Key Observations: Implied volatility spiked to extreme percentiles, with two-week IV hitting the 99th–100th percentile. Skew dynamics show otm calls becoming historically rich relative to puts.</li>
<li>
Opportunity: Elevated implied volatility and historically flat skew present an attractive setup for a zero-cost option strategy.</li>
</ul>



Context: On 23 July 2025, Toyota Motor (7203 JP) surged 14.3%, driven by macro factors tied to tariffs. This Insight examines how that sharp move affected the stock’s volatility surface.

Key Observations: Implied volatility spiked to extreme percentiles, with two-week IV hitting the 99th–100th percentile. Skew dynamics show otm calls becoming historically rich relative to puts.

Opportunity: Elevated implied volatility and historically flat skew present an attractive setup for a zero-cost option strategy.


Toyota (7203 JP) Surges 14% — A Contrarian Option Strategy

Index Rebalance

Kawasaki Heavy Industries / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kawasaki-heavy-industries" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8790:1" rel="noopener">Kawasaki Heavy Industries (7012 JP)</a> stock price has moved higher over the last few months, and the increased market cap should result in global index inclusion in August.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kawasaki-heavy-industries" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8790:1" rel="noopener">Kawasaki Heavy Industries (7012 JP)</a> has underperformed its larger peers, and the stock is trading cheaper than the average of its peers on most metrics. </li>
<li>There will be positioning in the stock that has been built up over the last month and a relative value trade could offer better risk reward here.</li>
</ul>



Kawasaki Heavy Industries (7012 JP) stock price has moved higher over the last few months, and the increased market cap should result in global index inclusion in August.

Kawasaki Heavy Industries (7012 JP) has underperformed its larger peers, and the stock is trading cheaper than the average of its peers on most metrics. 
There will be positioning in the stock that has been built up over the last month and a relative value trade could offer better risk reward here.


Kawasaki Heavy (7012 JP): Cheaper than Peers with Index Inclusion Kicker

Japan

The TOPIX, also known as the Tokyo Stock Price Index, is a capitalization-weighted index of all companies listed on the First Section of the Tokyo Stock Exchange. The index is supplemented by the subindices of the 33 industry sectors. The index calculation excludes temporary issues and preferred stocks, and has a base value of 100 as of January 4, 1968.

TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX (TPX INDEX)

Bank of Japan’s Rate Decision on 31 July: Market Calm, Watch for Tail Risk

Reminder: The Bank of Japan’s policy decision is due today around noon (31 July). Markets remain calm, with the Nikkei 225 and implied volatility...

Gaudenz Schneider

Kokusai Electric (6525 JP): Small Index Impact for Now, but Could Lead to Something Bigger

Kokusai Electric has traded in a tight range following its placement. 50m shares have traded since then vs the 30m placement shares. The stock has...

Brian Freitas

The Month Ahead: Key Events in August 2025

Three central banks (India, Australia, South Korea) decide on rates. Earnings season continues in South Korea, Japan, Hong Kong, and India, and is...

Gaudenz Schneider

Toyota (7203 JP) Surges 14% — A Contrarian Option Strategy

An opportunity emerges after volatility shifts to extreme levels. Find out how implied volatility reacted to the recent rally and explore a zero...

Gaudenz Schneider

Kawasaki Heavy (7012 JP): Cheaper than Peers with Index Inclusion Kicker

Kawasaki Heavy should be added to a global index in August. The stock has moved higher and trades cheaper than its peers. There is positioning and...

Brian Freitas

Bank of Japan’s Rate Decision on 31 July: Market Calm, Watch for Tail Risk

Reminder: The Bank of Japan’s policy decision is due today around noon (31 July). Markets remain calm, with the Nikkei 225 and implied volatility...

Gaudenz Schneider

Kokusai Electric (6525 JP): Small Index Impact for Now, but Could Lead to Something Bigger

Kokusai Electric has traded in a tight range following its placement. 50m shares have traded since then vs the 30m placement shares. The stock has...

Brian Freitas

The Month Ahead: Key Events in August 2025

Three central banks (India, Australia, South Korea) decide on rates. Earnings season continues in South Korea, Japan, Hong Kong, and India, and is...

Gaudenz Schneider

Toyota (7203 JP) Surges 14% — A Contrarian Option Strategy

​An opportunity emerges after volatility shifts to extreme levels. Find out how implied volatility reacted to the recent rally and explore a zero...

Gaudenz Schneider

Kawasaki Heavy (7012 JP): Cheaper than Peers with Index Inclusion Kicker

Kawasaki Heavy should be added to a global index in August. The stock has moved higher and trades cheaper than its peers. There is positioning and...

Brian Freitas

An opportunity emerges after volatility shifts to extreme levels. Find out how implied volatility reacted to the recent rally and explore a zero...