Index Rebal Trades & Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Index Rebal Trades & Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>Quiddity's "Who is Ready" series of insights aims to objectively identify names listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange that are potential additions to the TOPIX Index in future.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gmo-financial-gate-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35234:1" rel="noopener">GMO Financial Gate (4051 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/azoom-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32232:1" rel="noopener">Azoom (3496 JP)</a> have confirmed their moves to the Prime Market which would trigger TOPIX Inclusions for these names at the end of July.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kitazato-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45255:1" rel="noopener">Kitazato (368A JP)</a> is expected to get listed in the Prime market in late-June and that name would also have a TOPIX Inclusion at the end of July. </li>
</ul>


Quiddity's "Who is Ready" series of insights aims to objectively identify names listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange that are potential additions to the TOPIX Index in future.

GMO Financial Gate (4051 JP) and Azoom (3496 JP) have confirmed their moves to the Prime Market which would trigger TOPIX Inclusions for these names at the end of July.

Kitazato (368A JP) is expected to get listed in the Prime market in late-June and that name would also have a TOPIX Inclusion at the end of July. 


TOPIX Inclusions: Who Is Ready (Jun 2025)

Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>With Japan’s policy rate at 0.5% and the last hike in January 2025, markets are closely watching the BoJ’s next move on June 17.</li>
<li>Historical data shows limited market impact from anticipated rate decisions—but rare surprises, like the July 2025 hike, have triggered outsized index reactions.</li>
<li>While historical data and current option pricing suggest the June BoJ decision is unlikely to move markets significantly, investors should be aware of low-probability tail risk when positioning.</li>
</ul>


With Japan’s policy rate at 0.5% and the last hike in January 2025, markets are closely watching the BoJ’s next move on June 17.
Historical data shows limited market impact from anticipated rate decisions—but rare surprises, like the July 2025 hike, have triggered outsized index reactions.
While historical data and current option pricing suggest the June BoJ decision is unlikely to move markets significantly, investors should be aware of low-probability tail risk when positioning.


Bank of Japan's June Policy Decision: A Non-Event for Markets?

Equity Derivatives Broker - Delta One Japan, Vantage Capital Markets Japan

François-Xavier Pustoc'h

Equity Derivatives Broker - Delta One Japan

Independent Financial Broker

Vantage Capital Markets Japan

We provide world class financial solutions to our extensive institutional client base including rapidly growing corporations, leading investment banks, commercial banks, asset managers, private equity funds, family offices and hedge funds.

Our services include capital market offerings and placements, wholesale brokerage and execution of cash and derivative products (both listed and OTC) across a range of asset classes.

VCM has offices in London, Hong Kong, Tokyo and Dubai from where we service our global client base. Our strength lies in the experience and quality of our teams, supported by excellent operations and infrastructure.

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>2 business days before Jun25 SQ on Nikkei and Topix Futures &amp; Options</li>
<li>Both NK and TP rolls have been very stable compared to the past SQs.</li>
<li>Current Roll Levels: NK JUN25/SEP25 ROLL -21/-20, TP JUN25/SEP25 ROLL -0.4/-0.3</li>
</ul>


2 business days before Jun25 SQ on Nikkei and Topix Futures &amp; Options
Both NK and TP rolls have been very stable compared to the past SQs.
Current Roll Levels: NK JUN25/SEP25 ROLL -21/-20, TP JUN25/SEP25 ROLL -0.4/-0.3


Nikkei & Topix Future Roll Update (Jun 11th, 2025)

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

<ul>
<li>For each share of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sony-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:563:1" rel="noopener">Sony Corp (6758 JP)</a>, shareholders will receive 1 share of Sony Financial Group. Ex-date for the dividend in-kind is 29 September.</li>
<li>The Nikkei has started a market consultation on treatment of the spinoff in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei225</a> and that means the dividend in-kind will not be included in the Dividend Point Index.</li>
<li>There will be some selling in SFGI from passive trackers and the company will buy back some stock following listing. Details of the buyback have not been announced yet.</li>
</ul>


For each share of Sony Corp (6758 JP), shareholders will receive 1 share of Sony Financial Group. Ex-date for the dividend in-kind is 29 September.
The Nikkei has started a market consultation on treatment of the spinoff in the Nikkei225 and that means the dividend in-kind will not be included in the Dividend Point Index.
There will be some selling in SFGI from passive trackers and the company will buy back some stock following listing. Details of the buyback have not been announced yet.


Index Treatment of Sony (6758 JP)'s Spinoff of the Financial Services Business

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>
Central Bank Rate Decisions, including from the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), the Bank of Japan, and the Fed.</li>
<li>
Index Rebalancings for the Australian, Indian, Hong Kong, and US benchmark indices. </li>
<li>
Elections: South Korea Presidential Elections on 3 June; potential for the opposition party to win the presidency.</li>
</ul>



Central Bank Rate Decisions, including from the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), the Bank of Japan, and the Fed.

Index Rebalancings for the Australian, Indian, Hong Kong, and US benchmark indices. 

Elections: South Korea Presidential Elections on 3 June; potential for the opposition party to win the presidency.


Japan

The TOPIX, also known as the Tokyo Stock Price Index, is a capitalization-weighted index of all companies listed on the First Section of the Tokyo Stock Exchange. The index is supplemented by the subindices of the 33 industry sectors. The index calculation excludes temporary issues and preferred stocks, and has a base value of 100 as of January 4, 1968.

TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX (TPX INDEX)

TOPIX Inclusions: Who Is Ready (Jun 2025)

There are currently 121 names that satisfy all 5 key Segment Transfer requirements based on current data. Another 140 names can satisfy 4 out of 5...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Bank of Japan's June Policy Decision: A Non-Event for Markets?

Stay ahead of potential tail risks: with the Bank of Japan's crucial rate decision just two days away, this analysis reveals why the June 17...

Gaudenz Schneider

Nikkei & Topix Future Roll Update (Jun 11th, 2025)

2 business days before Jun25 SQ on Nikkei and Topix Futures & Options Both NK and TP rolls have been very stable compared to the past...

Vantage Capital Markets Japan

Index Treatment of Sony (6758 JP)'s Spinoff of the Financial Services Business

Sony will distribute SFGI shares with an ex-date of 29 Sep. There will be selling from NKY trackers on listing day and possibly from global index...

Brian Freitas

The Month Ahead: Key Events in June 2025

Central bank rate decisions, index rebalancings, and upcoming South Korea presidential elections are key events to watch for in Asia-Pacific in June.

Gaudenz Schneider

TOPIX Inclusions: Who Is Ready (Jun 2025)

There are currently 121 names that satisfy all 5 key Segment Transfer requirements based on current data. Another 140 names can satisfy 4 out of 5...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Bank of Japan's June Policy Decision: A Non-Event for Markets?

Stay ahead of potential tail risks: with the Bank of Japan's crucial rate decision just two days away, this analysis reveals why the June 17...

Gaudenz Schneider

Nikkei & Topix Future Roll Update (Jun 11th, 2025)

2 business days before Jun25 SQ on Nikkei and Topix Futures & Options Both NK and TP rolls have been very stable compared to the past...

Vantage Capital Markets Japan

Index Treatment of Sony (6758 JP)'s Spinoff of the Financial Services Business

Sony will distribute SFGI shares with an ex-date of 29 Sep. There will be selling from NKY trackers on listing day and possibly from global index...

Brian Freitas

The Month Ahead: Key Events in June 2025

​Central bank rate decisions, index rebalancings, and upcoming South Korea presidential elections are key events to watch for in Asia-Pacific in June.

Gaudenz Schneider

Central bank rate decisions, index rebalancings, and upcoming South Korea presidential elections are key events to watch for in Asia-Pacific in June.