Asia L/S Equity PM/Macro/Thematic Idea Generation

Rikki Malik

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Asymmetric return opportunity in a short position in Japan - downside vs upside potential is skewed to the downside.</li>
<li>The weak JPY hasn’t helped the overall market and rising risk of a reversal similar to August 2024</li>
<li>We look at some sectors and stocks that are good short candidates</li>
</ul>


Asymmetric return opportunity in a short position in Japan - downside vs upside potential is skewed to the downside.
The weak JPY hasn’t helped the overall market and rising risk of a reversal similar to August 2024
We look at some sectors and stocks that are good short candidates


Tactical Trading - Time to Sell Japan. Again.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes or outlook</li>
<li>Indian market has discounted some of the issues the country faces </li>
<li>The best performing assets in Q1 2025 continue to be our favourites</li>
</ul>


A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes or outlook
Indian market has discounted some of the issues the country faces 
The best performing assets in Q1 2025 continue to be our favourites


Overview #21 India, Gold and the Slow Death of AI

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The largest ETF inflows in the region have been in Taiwan as investors rush into indices that have higher dividend yields.</li>
<li>China had large inflows last year as markets floundered. With markets trading in a range over the last 6 months, those flows have reversed in Q1 this year.</li>
<li>Australia has seen net inflows this year, while there have been net outflows from Hong Kong, India and Japan focused ETFs.</li>
</ul>


The largest ETF inflows in the region have been in Taiwan as investors rush into indices that have higher dividend yields.
China had large inflows last year as markets floundered. With markets trading in a range over the last 6 months, those flows have reversed in Q1 this year.
Australia has seen net inflows this year, while there have been net outflows from Hong Kong, India and Japan focused ETFs.


ETF Flows in Q1: Inflows for Taiwan, Outflows for China

Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>
Australia: RBA rate decision on 1 April. Expect no change.
</li>
<li>
Japan: Nikkei 225 rebalancing effective 31 March at the close.</li>
<li>
US reciprocal tariffs will keep everyone on their toes on 2 April.</li>
</ul>



Australia: RBA rate decision on 1 April. Expect no change.


Japan: Nikkei 225 rebalancing effective 31 March at the close.

US reciprocal tariffs will keep everyone on their toes on 2 April.


Market Movers: Key Dates at a Glance (31 March- 6 April)

<ul>
<li>
India: Index changes for Nifty indices will take place. Multiple option expiries are scheduled, impacting stocks and indices such as the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nifty-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23617:1" rel="noopener">NIFTY 50 Index</a>, and the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-bse-sensex-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31494:1" rel="noopener">SENSEX Index</a>.</li>
<li>
Asia-Pacific: Key events include Hong Kong's earnings week and Tokyo CPI release, while Australia reports its Monthly CPI indicator.</li>
<li>
USA: Significant releases include the final Q4 2024 GDP figures and the PCE Price Index, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge.</li>
</ul>



India: Index changes for Nifty indices will take place. Multiple option expiries are scheduled, impacting stocks and indices such as the NIFTY 50 Index, and the SENSEX Index.

Asia-Pacific: Key events include Hong Kong's earnings week and Tokyo CPI release, while Australia reports its Monthly CPI indicator.

USA: Significant releases include the final Q4 2024 GDP figures and the PCE Price Index, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge.


Market Movers: Key Dates at a Glance (March 24-30)

Japan

The TOPIX, also known as the Tokyo Stock Price Index, is a capitalization-weighted index of all companies listed on the First Section of the Tokyo Stock Exchange. The index is supplemented by the subindices of the 33 industry sectors. The index calculation excludes temporary issues and preferred stocks, and has a base value of 100 as of January 4, 1968.

TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX (TPX INDEX)

Tactical Trading - Time to Sell Japan. Again.

It's the perfect storm for the Japanese market. Tariffs, JPY, rising rates and inflation, with growth weakening. The 2,800 level on Topix has been...

Rikki Malik

Overview #21 India, Gold and the Slow Death of AI

A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook. Revisiting India, our top 2 allocations and the ongoing US bear market

Rikki Malik

ETF Flows in Q1: Inflows for Taiwan, Outflows for China

Taiwan has taken in the largest inflows in Q1 while the largest outflows are in China. The switch from EEM to IEMG continues. Redemptions from EMXC...

Brian Freitas

Market Movers: Key Dates at a Glance (31 March- 6 April)

RBA expected to keep rates steady, Nikkei 225 rebalancing in Japan, India shifting its option expiration day, Exchange Holidays in India and...

Gaudenz Schneider

Market Movers: Key Dates at a Glance (March 24-30)

Index changes in India's Nifty indices, key events in Asia-Pacific, and significant releases in the USA impacting stocks and indices globally.

Gaudenz Schneider

Tactical Trading - Time to Sell Japan. Again.

It's the perfect storm for the Japanese market. Tariffs, JPY, rising rates and inflation, with growth weakening. The 2,800 level on Topix has been...

Rikki Malik

Overview #21 India, Gold and the Slow Death of AI

A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook. Revisiting India, our top 2 allocations and the ongoing US bear market

Rikki Malik

ETF Flows in Q1: Inflows for Taiwan, Outflows for China

Taiwan has taken in the largest inflows in Q1 while the largest outflows are in China. The switch from EEM to IEMG continues. Redemptions from EMXC...

Brian Freitas

Market Movers: Key Dates at a Glance (31 March- 6 April)

​RBA expected to keep rates steady, Nikkei 225 rebalancing in Japan, India shifting its option expiration day, Exchange Holidays in India and...

Gaudenz Schneider

Market Movers: Key Dates at a Glance (March 24-30)

​Index changes in India's Nifty indices, key events in Asia-Pacific, and significant releases in the USA impacting stocks and indices globally.

Gaudenz Schneider

RBA expected to keep rates steady, Nikkei 225 rebalancing in Japan, India shifting its option expiration day, Exchange Holidays in India and...

Index changes in India's Nifty indices, key events in Asia-Pacific, and significant releases in the USA impacting stocks and indices globally.