Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Every year, the yukashoken hokokusho shows a breakdown of share ownership by owner category. It only happens once a year for most companies. </li>
<li>It is a crucial input to knowing where the shares are and how people are positioned. It also shows who and how big is Real World Float.</li>
<li>This year's data shows a surprisingly small change year-on-year for Foreign Active Ownership, which is the biggest category. A little musical chairs, but no chairs removed. </li>
</ul>


Every year, the yukashoken hokokusho shows a breakdown of share ownership by owner category. It only happens once a year for most companies. 
It is a crucial input to knowing where the shares are and how people are positioned. It also shows who and how big is Real World Float.
This year's data shows a surprisingly small change year-on-year for Foreign Active Ownership, which is the biggest category. A little musical chairs, but no chairs removed. 


Toshiba (6502) Ownership Structure - "Hostage to Toshiba" Larger Than Real World Float

Japan/Asia Long-Short, LightStream Research

Mio Kato

Japan/Asia Long-Short

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

<ul>
<li>At last year’s Toshiba AGM we had an elected director resign because the sitting chairman was rejected. </li>
<li>This year we have another director resigning because two other directors weren’t rejected. </li>
<li>Now all we are really waiting for in this drama is for Kurumatani’s hitherto unknown identical twin, separated at birth, to show up with a plot for revenge or something…</li>
</ul>


At last year’s Toshiba AGM we had an elected director resign because the sitting chairman was rejected. 
This year we have another director resigning because two other directors weren’t rejected. 
Now all we are really waiting for in this drama is for Kurumatani’s hitherto unknown identical twin, separated at birth, to show up with a plot for revenge or something…


Toshiba – These Are The Days Of Our Lives

David Blennerhassett

<ul>
<li>There is a risk that the ¥7,000/share bid for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toshiba-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:637:1" rel="noopener">Toshiba Corp (6502 JP)</a> gets pulled/lowered in Round 2 because of due diligence, conditionality, market environment, etc.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hutchison-telecommunications-hong-kong-holdings-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:141:1" rel="noopener">Hutchison Telecommunications Hong Kong Holdings (215 HK)</a>'s share price was up 33% month to date, on triple the average daily volume. Then promptly sheds 23% on an even larger volume. </li>
<li>Even if one assumes that Softbank, Baba, and Cornerstones won’t sell, there is still 45% of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sensetime-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34319:1" rel="noopener">SenseTime Group (20 HK)</a> of shares out, worth US$11bn, unlocking next week.</li>
</ul>


There is a risk that the ¥7,000/share bid for Toshiba Corp (6502 JP) gets pulled/lowered in Round 2 because of due diligence, conditionality, market environment, etc.

Hutchison Telecommunications Hong Kong Holdings (215 HK)'s share price was up 33% month to date, on triple the average daily volume. Then promptly sheds 23% on an even larger volume. 
Even if one assumes that Softbank, Baba, and Cornerstones won’t sell, there is still 45% of SenseTime Group (20 HK) of shares out, worth US$11bn, unlocking next week.


Last Week in Event SPACE: Toshiba, Hutch Tel, SenseTime, Giordano, DTAC/True, Toyo Const., ResApp

<ul>
<li>There are 49 - mostly firm - transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal.</li>
<li>Two new deals this week: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/giordano-international-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13899:1" rel="noopener">Giordano International (709 HK)</a>'s low-balled Offer; and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/uniden-holdings-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8611:1" rel="noopener">Uniden Holdings (6815 JP)</a>'s MBO. Rumours on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toshiba-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:637:1" rel="noopener">Toshiba Corp (6502 JP)</a> also.</li>
<li>Key updates took place for: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/narhex-life-sciences-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9728:1" rel="noopener">Resapp Health (RAP AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/infomedia-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11385:1" rel="noopener">Infomedia Ltd (IFM AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/link-net-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1050:1" rel="noopener">Link Net (LINK IJ)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyo-construction-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1176:1" rel="noopener">Toyo Construction (1890 JP)</a>, &amp; <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sph-reit" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5994:1" rel="noopener">SPH REIT (SPHREIT SP)</a> </li>
</ul>


There are 49 - mostly firm - transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal.
Two new deals this week: Giordano International (709 HK)'s low-balled Offer; and Uniden Holdings (6815 JP)'s MBO. Rumours on Toshiba Corp (6502 JP) also.
Key updates took place for: Resapp Health (RAP AU), Infomedia Ltd (IFM AU), Link Net (LINK IJ), Toyo Construction (1890 JP), &amp; SPH REIT (SPHREIT SP) 


Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: Toshiba, Uniden, Giordano, ResApp, Infomedia, SPH REIT, Toyo

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

iShares MSCI ACWI ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Many indexes (ACWI-US,ACWX-US,etc.) are near support, and we could see a bear market bounce, but until these indexes reverse their downtrends and break above resistance levels, we cannot be bullish.</li>
<li>On a positive note, we are starting to see signs that inflation is peaking, as commodity prices have pulled back substantially, and the Energy/Materials Sectors are under significant pressure.</li>
<li>If inflation and commodity prices have indeed peaked, global equities are likely in the early stages of a bottoming process.</li>
</ul>


Many indexes (ACWI-US,ACWX-US,etc.) are near support, and we could see a bear market bounce, but until these indexes reverse their downtrends and break above resistance levels, we cannot be bullish.
On a positive note, we are starting to see signs that inflation is peaking, as commodity prices have pulled back substantially, and the Energy/Materials Sectors are under significant pressure.
If inflation and commodity prices have indeed peaked, global equities are likely in the early stages of a bottoming process.


Inflation Peaking?; ACWI, ACWI Ex-US Near Support; Many Bottoms-Up Stock Recommendations

Japan

Toshiba Corporation manufactures and markets electrical and electronic products. The Company's products include digital products such as PCs and televisions, NAND flash memories, and system LSIs (large-scale integrated), as well as social infrastructures such as power generators, medical equipment, and home appliances.

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Toshiba Corp (6502 JP)

Toshiba (6502) Ownership Structure - "Hostage to Toshiba" Larger Than Real World Float

A look at the shareholder structure of Toshiba (6502) tells you that Real World Float is smaller than you'd think, but that "Hostage to Toshiba"...

Travis Lundy

Toshiba – These Are The Days Of Our Lives

Toshiba's AGM generated more drama (surprise, surprise) as independent director Mariko Watahiki resigned upon learning that both activist director...

Mio Kato

Last Week in Event SPACE: Toshiba, Hutch Tel, SenseTime, Giordano, DTAC/True, Toyo Const., ResApp

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: Toshiba, Uniden, Giordano, ResApp, Infomedia, SPH REIT, Toyo

This insight provides a summary of gross/annualised spreads (on deals discussed on Smartkarma) across Asia-Pacific as at the last trading date, and...

David Blennerhassett

Inflation Peaking?; ACWI, ACWI Ex-US Near Support; Many Bottoms-Up Stock Recommendations

We're starting to see signs that inflation is peaking, as commodity prices have pulled back substantially or are breaking, and the Energy $XLE and...

Vermilion Research

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