Oil and Gas, Mint Finance

Suhas Reddy

Oil and Gas

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

Commodities

<ul>
<li>For the week ending 31/Jan, US crude inventories increased by 8.7m barrels, exceeding expectations of a 2.4m barrel build. Gasoline stockpiles unexpectedly rose, while distillate stocks fell more than expected.</li>
<li>US natural gas inventories fell by 174 Bcf for the week ending 31/Jan, beating analyst expectations of a 167 Bcf drawdown. Inventories are 4.4% below the 5-year seasonal average.</li>
<li>TotalEnergies’ Q4 adjusted earnings rose 8.1% QoQ and beat estimates by 4.8% led by robust growth in the LNG and Integrated Power divisions.</li>
</ul>


For the week ending 31/Jan, US crude inventories increased by 8.7m barrels, exceeding expectations of a 2.4m barrel build. Gasoline stockpiles unexpectedly rose, while distillate stocks fell more than expected.
US natural gas inventories fell by 174 Bcf for the week ending 31/Jan, beating analyst expectations of a 167 Bcf drawdown. Inventories are 4.4% below the 5-year seasonal average.
TotalEnergies’ Q4 adjusted earnings rose 8.1% QoQ and beat estimates by 4.8% led by robust growth in the LNG and Integrated Power divisions.


[ETP 2025/06] WTI Pressured by Macroeconomic Uncertainty; Henry Hub Rebounds on Colder Forecasts

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Occidental’s Q4 revenue and EPS are expected to drop 2.6% and 9.5% YoY, with full-year 2024 declines of 3.8% and 10%, respectively.</li>
<li>Occidental's average realised worldwide oil price dropped by 7.4% QoQ and 11.6% YoY to USD 69.73/b. Conversely, its average realised global NGL price rose by 6.5% QoQ and 4.2% YoY.</li>
<li>The STRATOS plant, one of the largest DAC projects globally, will begin operations by mid-2025. It is expected to capture up to 500,000 tonnes of carbon dioxide annually.</li>
</ul>


Occidental’s Q4 revenue and EPS are expected to drop 2.6% and 9.5% YoY, with full-year 2024 declines of 3.8% and 10%, respectively.
Occidental's average realised worldwide oil price dropped by 7.4% QoQ and 11.6% YoY to USD 69.73/b. Conversely, its average realised global NGL price rose by 6.5% QoQ and 4.2% YoY.
The STRATOS plant, one of the largest DAC projects globally, will begin operations by mid-2025. It is expected to capture up to 500,000 tonnes of carbon dioxide annually.


[Earnings Preview] Lower Oil Prices to Pressure Occidental in Q4 While NGL Prices Offer Support

<ul>
<li>For the week ending 24/Jan, US crude inventories increased by 3.5m barrels, missing expectations of a 2.2m barrel build. Gasoline stockpiles rose, while distillate stocks fell more than expected.</li>
<li>US natural gas inventories fell by 321 Bcf for the week ending 24/Jan, beating analyst expectations of a 317 Bcf drawdown. Inventories are 4.1% below the 5-year seasonal average.</li>
<li>Shell’s Q4 adjusted earnings dropped 38.3% QoQ and 49.9% YoY, missing estimates due to weak margins and oil prices. HSBC raised its PT on Chevron but cut it for Exxon.</li>
</ul>


For the week ending 24/Jan, US crude inventories increased by 3.5m barrels, missing expectations of a 2.2m barrel build. Gasoline stockpiles rose, while distillate stocks fell more than expected.
US natural gas inventories fell by 321 Bcf for the week ending 24/Jan, beating analyst expectations of a 317 Bcf drawdown. Inventories are 4.1% below the 5-year seasonal average.
Shell’s Q4 adjusted earnings dropped 38.3% QoQ and 49.9% YoY, missing estimates due to weak margins and oil prices. HSBC raised its PT on Chevron but cut it for Exxon.


[ETP 2025/05] WTI Falls on Trump’s Trade Policies; Henry Hub Drops on Milder Weather Forecasts

<ul>
<li>ExxonMobil’s Q4 revenue is expected to rise 2.5% YoY while its EPS is anticipated to fall 36.3%. Annual revenue and EPS are expected to fall by 1.9% YoY and 18.1%.</li>
<li>Exxon expects Q4 2024 upstream earnings to drop USD 500–900 million QoQ due to lower crude prices, with refining margins further reducing earnings by USD 300–700 million.</li>
<li>ExxonMobil plans to invest up to USD 30 billion in low-emission projects by 2030, with its Low Carbon Solutions business expected to contribute an additional USD 2 billion in earnings.</li>
</ul>


ExxonMobil’s Q4 revenue is expected to rise 2.5% YoY while its EPS is anticipated to fall 36.3%. Annual revenue and EPS are expected to fall by 1.9% YoY and 18.1%.
Exxon expects Q4 2024 upstream earnings to drop USD 500–900 million QoQ due to lower crude prices, with refining margins further reducing earnings by USD 300–700 million.
ExxonMobil plans to invest up to USD 30 billion in low-emission projects by 2030, with its Low Carbon Solutions business expected to contribute an additional USD 2 billion in earnings.


[Earnings Preview] Exxon Q4 Profitability Faces Pressure from Lower Oil Prices and Refining Margins

<ul>
<li>For the week ending 17/Jan, U.S. crude inventories fell by 1m barrels, missing expectations of a 2.1m barrel decrease. Gasoline stockpiles rose less than expected.</li>
<li>U.S. natural gas inventories fell by 223 Bcf for the week ending 17/Jan, missing analyst expectations of a 270 Bcf drawdown. Inventories are 0.7% above the 5-year seasonal average.</li>
<li>J.P. Morgan, HSBC, TD Cowen, Barclays, and Citigroup raised their 12-month PTs on SLB post its Q4 earnings. Halliburton reported a YoY decline in Q4 revenue and EPS.</li>
</ul>


For the week ending 17/Jan, U.S. crude inventories fell by 1m barrels, missing expectations of a 2.1m barrel decrease. Gasoline stockpiles rose less than expected.
U.S. natural gas inventories fell by 223 Bcf for the week ending 17/Jan, missing analyst expectations of a 270 Bcf drawdown. Inventories are 0.7% above the 5-year seasonal average.
J.P. Morgan, HSBC, TD Cowen, Barclays, and Citigroup raised their 12-month PTs on SLB post its Q4 earnings. Halliburton reported a YoY decline in Q4 revenue and EPS.


[ETP 2025/04] WTI Falls on Trump’s Push for Higher Oil Output, Henry Hub Climbs on Colder Forecasts

France

TotalEnergies SE operates as an energy company. The Company produces, transports, and supplies crude oil, natural gas, and low carbon electricity, as well as refines petrochemical products. TotalEnergies owns and manages gasoline filling stations worldwide.

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TotalEnergies (TTE US)

[ETP 2025/06] WTI Pressured by Macroeconomic Uncertainty; Henry Hub Rebounds on Colder Forecasts

US oil inventories surged, with crude up by 8.7m barrels and gasoline stocks rising, while natural gas inventories fell more than expected. TTE's...

Mint Finance

[Earnings Preview] Lower Oil Prices to Pressure Occidental in Q4 While NGL Prices Offer Support

Occidental's Q4 revenue and EPS expected to decline due to weak oil prices. However, higher gas and NGL prices to cushion impact. STRATOS plant...

Mint Finance

[ETP 2025/05] WTI Falls on Trump’s Trade Policies; Henry Hub Drops on Milder Weather Forecasts

US oil inventories rose more than expected, while natural gas inventories fell more than expected. Shell's earnings declined due to weak margins...

Mint Finance

[Earnings Preview] Exxon Q4 Profitability Faces Pressure from Lower Oil Prices and Refining Margins

ExxonMobil's Q4 revenue to rise YoY but EPS to fall. Annual revenue and EPS expected to decline. Exxon plans significant investments in low-carbon...

Mint Finance

[ETP 2025/04] WTI Falls on Trump’s Push for Higher Oil Output, Henry Hub Climbs on Colder Forecasts

US crude inventories fell less than expected, while gasoline stockpiles rose less than expected. Natural gas inventories also fell short of...

Mint Finance

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

[ETP 2025/06] WTI Pressured by Macroeconomic Uncertainty; Henry Hub Rebounds on Colder Forecasts

​US oil inventories surged, with crude up by 8.7m barrels and gasoline stocks rising, while natural gas inventories fell more than expected. TTE's...

Mint Finance

[Earnings Preview] Lower Oil Prices to Pressure Occidental in Q4 While NGL Prices Offer Support

​Occidental's Q4 revenue and EPS expected to decline due to weak oil prices. However, higher gas and NGL prices to cushion impact. STRATOS plant...

Mint Finance

[ETP 2025/05] WTI Falls on Trump’s Trade Policies; Henry Hub Drops on Milder Weather Forecasts

​US oil inventories rose more than expected, while natural gas inventories fell more than expected. Shell's earnings declined due to weak margins...

Mint Finance

[Earnings Preview] Exxon Q4 Profitability Faces Pressure from Lower Oil Prices and Refining Margins

​ExxonMobil's Q4 revenue to rise YoY but EPS to fall. Annual revenue and EPS expected to decline. Exxon plans significant investments in low-carbon...

Mint Finance

[ETP 2025/04] WTI Falls on Trump’s Push for Higher Oil Output, Henry Hub Climbs on Colder Forecasts

​US crude inventories fell less than expected, while gasoline stockpiles rose less than expected. Natural gas inventories also fell short of...

Mint Finance

US oil inventories surged, with crude up by 8.7m barrels and gasoline stocks rising, while natural gas inventories fell more than expected. TTE's...

Occidental's Q4 revenue and EPS expected to decline due to weak oil prices. However, higher gas and NGL prices to cushion impact. STRATOS plant...

US oil inventories rose more than expected, while natural gas inventories fell more than expected. Shell's earnings declined due to weak margins...

ExxonMobil's Q4 revenue to rise YoY but EPS to fall. Annual revenue and EPS expected to decline. Exxon plans significant investments in low-carbon...

US crude inventories fell less than expected, while gasoline stockpiles rose less than expected. Natural gas inventories also fell short of...