Oil and Gas, Mint Finance

Suhas Reddy

Oil and Gas

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Occidental Petroleum gained USD 0.43 last week, closing at USD 51.97 on 17/Jan (Fri). However, the stock began this week on a weak note, falling by 2.7% on 21/Jan (Tue).</li>
<li>JPMorgan raised Occidental's price target to USD 59 from USD 58 with a Neutral rating, while Mizuho lowered its target to USD 68 from USD 70, maintaining a Neutral stance.</li>
<li>Occidental became the third-largest U.S. onshore oil and gas producer in 2024, up from fifth in 2023, with production reaching 1.22 million boepd, 58% of which was oil.</li>
</ul>


Occidental Petroleum gained USD 0.43 last week, closing at USD 51.97 on 17/Jan (Fri). However, the stock began this week on a weak note, falling by 2.7% on 21/Jan (Tue).
JPMorgan raised Occidental's price target to USD 59 from USD 58 with a Neutral rating, while Mizuho lowered its target to USD 68 from USD 70, maintaining a Neutral stance.
Occidental became the third-largest U.S. onshore oil and gas producer in 2024, up from fifth in 2023, with production reaching 1.22 million boepd, 58% of which was oil.


[2025/03] Occidental’s Bullish Trend Weakens Amid Downward Pressure on Crude Oil

<ul>
<li>Shell’s Q4 2024 revenue and EPS are expected to decline 21.9% YoY and 35.1%, respectively. For fiscal 2024, forecasts project a 4.8% revenue drop and a 7.4% EPS decline.</li>
<li>Shell anticipates a USD 1.3 billion Q4 charge for emissions certificates and biofuel programs, alongside non-cash post-tax impairments ranging from USD 1.5 billion to USD 3 billion.</li>
<li>Shell forecasts flat refining margins at USD 5.5/bbl but a 16% QoQ drop in chemical margins to USD 138/tonne.</li>
</ul>


Shell’s Q4 2024 revenue and EPS are expected to decline 21.9% YoY and 35.1%, respectively. For fiscal 2024, forecasts project a 4.8% revenue drop and a 7.4% EPS decline.
Shell anticipates a USD 1.3 billion Q4 charge for emissions certificates and biofuel programs, alongside non-cash post-tax impairments ranging from USD 1.5 billion to USD 3 billion.
Shell forecasts flat refining margins at USD 5.5/bbl but a 16% QoQ drop in chemical margins to USD 138/tonne.


[Earnings Preview] Lower Gas Output and Tight Margins Hit Shell’s Q4 Outlook

Commodities

<ul>
<li>For the week ending 10/Jan, US crude inventories fell by 2m barrels, missing expectations of a 3.5m barrel decrease. Gasoline and distillate stockpiles rose more than expected.</li>
<li>US natural gas inventories fell by 258 Bcf for the week ending 10/Jan, slightly missing analyst expectations of a 260 Bcf drawdown. Inventories are 2.5% above the 5-year seasonal average.</li>
<li>BP forecasts tepid Q4 earnings on low refining margins and upstream output, while TotalEnergies expects higher production and gas prices to offset lower oil prices.</li>
</ul>


For the week ending 10/Jan, US crude inventories fell by 2m barrels, missing expectations of a 3.5m barrel decrease. Gasoline and distillate stockpiles rose more than expected.
US natural gas inventories fell by 258 Bcf for the week ending 10/Jan, slightly missing analyst expectations of a 260 Bcf drawdown. Inventories are 2.5% above the 5-year seasonal average.
BP forecasts tepid Q4 earnings on low refining margins and upstream output, while TotalEnergies expects higher production and gas prices to offset lower oil prices.


[ETP 2025/03] WTI Rises on Falling Stockpiles, Henry Hub Fluctuates on Volatile Weather Forecasts

<ul>
<li>For the week ending 03/Jan, U.S. crude inventories fell by 1m barrels, missing expectations of a 1.8m barrel decrease. Gasoline and distillate stockpiles rose more than expected.</li>
<li>U.S. natural gas inventories fell by 40 Bcf for the week ending 03/Jan, moderately beating analyst expectations of a 39 Bcf drawdown. Inventories are 6.5% above the 5-year seasonal average.</li>
<li>Analysts lowered 12-month PTs on Exxon, BP, Halliburton, TotalEnergies, and SLB. Morgan Stanley upgraded rating on Shell to Overweight and raised PT to USD 79.8 from USD 66.5.</li>
</ul>


For the week ending 03/Jan, U.S. crude inventories fell by 1m barrels, missing expectations of a 1.8m barrel decrease. Gasoline and distillate stockpiles rose more than expected.
U.S. natural gas inventories fell by 40 Bcf for the week ending 03/Jan, moderately beating analyst expectations of a 39 Bcf drawdown. Inventories are 6.5% above the 5-year seasonal average.
Analysts lowered 12-month PTs on Exxon, BP, Halliburton, TotalEnergies, and SLB. Morgan Stanley upgraded rating on Shell to Overweight and raised PT to USD 79.8 from USD 66.5.


[ETP 2025/02] Bearish EIA Inventory Report Drags WTI Prices, Henry Hub Rebounds on Tightening Supply

<ul>
<li>For the week ending 27/Dec, U.S. crude inventories fell by 1.2m barrels, missing expectations of a 2.4m barrel decrease. Gasoline and distillate stockpiles rose more than expected.</li>
<li>U.S. natural gas inventories fell by 116 Bcf for the week ending 27/Dec, missing analyst expectations of a 127 Bcf drawdown. Inventories are 4.7% above the 5-year seasonal average.</li>
<li>JP Morgan lowered its 12-month PT for Halliburton and Schlumberger but maintained its “Overweight” ratings. Saudi Aramco revised fuel and natural gas prices for cement production starting from 01/Jan.</li>
</ul>


For the week ending 27/Dec, U.S. crude inventories fell by 1.2m barrels, missing expectations of a 2.4m barrel decrease. Gasoline and distillate stockpiles rose more than expected.
U.S. natural gas inventories fell by 116 Bcf for the week ending 27/Dec, missing analyst expectations of a 127 Bcf drawdown. Inventories are 4.7% above the 5-year seasonal average.
JP Morgan lowered its 12-month PT for Halliburton and Schlumberger but maintained its “Overweight” ratings. Saudi Aramco revised fuel and natural gas prices for cement production starting from 01/Jan.


[ETP 2025/01] WTI Rises on Improved Chinese Outlook, Henry Hub Reverses Uptrend

France

TotalEnergies SE operates as an energy company. The Company produces, transports, and supplies crude oil, natural gas, and low carbon electricity, as well as refines petrochemical products. TotalEnergies owns and manages gasoline filling stations worldwide.

Price Gauge
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TotalEnergies (TTE US)

[2025/03] Occidental’s Bullish Trend Weakens Amid Downward Pressure on Crude Oil

Occidental Petroleum stock fluctuates after price target adjustments by JPMorgan and Mizuho, as company rises to third-largest U.S. onshore oil...

Mint Finance

[Earnings Preview] Lower Gas Output and Tight Margins Hit Shell’s Q4 Outlook

Shell's Q4 2024 revenue and EPS expected to decline, with charges for emissions certificates and biofuel programs, and forecasts of flat refining...

Mint Finance

[ETP 2025/03] WTI Rises on Falling Stockpiles, Henry Hub Fluctuates on Volatile Weather Forecasts

US crude inventories fell less than expected, while gasoline and distillate stockpiles rose. Nat-gas inventories fall for ninth week straight. BP...

Mint Finance

[ETP 2025/02] Bearish EIA Inventory Report Drags WTI Prices, Henry Hub Rebounds on Tightening Supply

US crude inventories fell less than expected, while gasoline and distillate stockpiles rose; nat-gas withdrawal beat expectations. Analysts...

Mint Finance

[ETP 2025/01] WTI Rises on Improved Chinese Outlook, Henry Hub Reverses Uptrend

US crude inventories fell less than expected, while gasoline and distillate stockpiles rose. Natural gas inventories also fell below expectations....

Mint Finance

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

[2025/03] Occidental’s Bullish Trend Weakens Amid Downward Pressure on Crude Oil

​Occidental Petroleum stock fluctuates after price target adjustments by JPMorgan and Mizuho, as company rises to third-largest U.S. onshore oil...

Mint Finance

[Earnings Preview] Lower Gas Output and Tight Margins Hit Shell’s Q4 Outlook

​Shell's Q4 2024 revenue and EPS expected to decline, with charges for emissions certificates and biofuel programs, and forecasts of flat refining...

Mint Finance

[ETP 2025/03] WTI Rises on Falling Stockpiles, Henry Hub Fluctuates on Volatile Weather Forecasts

​US crude inventories fell less than expected, while gasoline and distillate stockpiles rose. Nat-gas inventories fall for ninth week straight. BP...

Mint Finance

[ETP 2025/02] Bearish EIA Inventory Report Drags WTI Prices, Henry Hub Rebounds on Tightening Supply

​US crude inventories fell less than expected, while gasoline and distillate stockpiles rose; nat-gas withdrawal beat expectations. Analysts...

Mint Finance

[ETP 2025/01] WTI Rises on Improved Chinese Outlook, Henry Hub Reverses Uptrend

​US crude inventories fell less than expected, while gasoline and distillate stockpiles rose. Natural gas inventories also fell below expectations....

Mint Finance

Occidental Petroleum stock fluctuates after price target adjustments by JPMorgan and Mizuho, as company rises to third-largest U.S. onshore oil...

Shell's Q4 2024 revenue and EPS expected to decline, with charges for emissions certificates and biofuel programs, and forecasts of flat refining...

US crude inventories fell less than expected, while gasoline and distillate stockpiles rose. Nat-gas inventories fall for ninth week straight. BP...

US crude inventories fell less than expected, while gasoline and distillate stockpiles rose; nat-gas withdrawal beat expectations. Analysts...

US crude inventories fell less than expected, while gasoline and distillate stockpiles rose. Natural gas inventories also fell below expectations....