Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

Equity Bottom-Up

Chinese super app <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/meituan-dianping" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26970:1" rel="noopener">Meituan (3690 HK)</a> reported Q320 results earlier this week. Total revenue increased by 29% YoY in the period, but core Operating Profit declined by around 23% YoY, mainly due to growing losses in Meituan's New Initiatives segment. Meanwhile, Meituan's largest operating segment, Food Delivery, reported a 33% YoY jump in revenue, driven in part by a 61% increase in advertising and other revenue. However, margins on actual food delivery activity fell sharply compared to both Q319 and Q220. The reasons for the sharp dip in food delivery margins in Q320 are still unclear to us, but this crucial source of profits deserves close attention from investors, in our view. We also worry investors may be growing impatient with outsized losses in the New Initiatives segment.

Chinese super app Meituan (3690 HK) reported Q320 results earlier this week. Total revenue increased by 29% YoY in the period, but core Operating Profit declined by around 23% YoY, mainly due to growing losses in Meituan's New Initiatives segment. Meanwhile, Meituan's largest operating segment, Food Delivery, reported a 33% YoY jump in revenue, driven in part by a 61% increase in advertising and other revenue. However, margins on actual food delivery activity fell sharply compared to both Q319 and Q220. The reasons for the sharp dip in food delivery margins in Q320 are still unclear to us, but this crucial source of profits deserves close attention from investors, in our view. We also worry investors may be growing impatient with outsized losses in the New Initiatives segment.

Meituan: 'Delivery Margin' Dipped in Q3 | How Patient Will Investors Be with 'New Initiatives'?

Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/airbnb-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:431:1" rel="noopener">Airbnb Inc (9865065Z US)</a> filed an amended S1 with the Securities and Exchange Commission on 1st of December 2020 to offer 50.0m new Class A common shares at an offer price range of $44.0-50.0 per share. The IPO will include an additional 1.9m secondary Class A common shares and an overallotment option of another 5.0m shares. At a deal size of $2.5-2.84 billion (including the over-allotment option), Airbnb IPO could be one of the largest IPOs on the NYSE this year.</li>
<li>Most of the loss-making tech start-ups in the recent past have failed to provide a business model capable of being profitable in the near future. Armed with money from private market funding at almost ridiculous valuations, these start-ups go on to spend big money on customer acquisition (chasing revenue growth) without giving proper attention to the ROI of customer acquisition and marketing spend.</li>
<li>Airbnb’s philosophy is different from those tech start-ups and it is the main reason why we like the company so much. We discuss the details below.</li>
</ul>



Airbnb Inc (9865065Z US) filed an amended S1 with the Securities and Exchange Commission on 1st of December 2020 to offer 50.0m new Class A common shares at an offer price range of $44.0-50.0 per share. The IPO will include an additional 1.9m secondary Class A common shares and an overallotment option of another 5.0m shares. At a deal size of $2.5-2.84 billion (including the over-allotment option), Airbnb IPO could be one of the largest IPOs on the NYSE this year.
Most of the loss-making tech start-ups in the recent past have failed to provide a business model capable of being profitable in the near future. Armed with money from private market funding at almost ridiculous valuations, these start-ups go on to spend big money on customer acquisition (chasing revenue growth) without giving proper attention to the ROI of customer acquisition and marketing spend.
Airbnb’s philosophy is different from those tech start-ups and it is the main reason why we like the company so much. We discuss the details below.


On Tuesday after the US market close, China's leading online travel agency <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/trip-com-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:180:1" rel="noopener">Trip.com (TCOM US)</a> reported Q320 results. Net Revenue declined 48% YoY, and Adjusted Operating Income fell 50%.Trip.com's results were largely in-line with guidance and expectations, but we believe the pace of the company's recovery is lagging that of some peers and the industry as a whole, even after adjusting for Trip.com's relatively high exposure to outbound travel, which has collapsed. Trip.com's revenue guidance for Q420 also suggests the pace of its recovery will continue to disappoint in the near-term. We don't see anything to get excited about in Trip.com's Q320 results and Q420 guidance.

On Tuesday after the US market close, China's leading online travel agency Trip.com (TCOM US) reported Q320 results. Net Revenue declined 48% YoY, and Adjusted Operating Income fell 50%.Trip.com's results were largely in-line with guidance and expectations, but we believe the pace of the company's recovery is lagging that of some peers and the industry as a whole, even after adjusting for Trip.com's relatively high exposure to outbound travel, which has collapsed. Trip.com's revenue guidance for Q420 also suggests the pace of its recovery will continue to disappoint in the near-term. We don't see anything to get excited about in Trip.com's Q320 results and Q420 guidance. 

Trip.com Q320 Results Met Guidance, But Q420 Guidance Suggests Very Slow Recovery

<section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/174/124/original/BANNER-TOURISM.png?1606332998" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="174124"></figure></section>Chinese outbound travel activity remained moribund in October, even after another increase in trips to Macau, which eased some travel restrictions in July. Macau's slow recovery suggests it will take many months for outbound activity to normalize once regional restrictions are lifted. China's 'Golden Week' holiday period was a day longer this year, but by most measures domestic air activity in October remained weak versus 2019. Sequential improvement in RPKs and passenger counts in October was just +5% MoM, roughly in-line with normal seasonality, and travelers are still opting for shorter trips. We believe the pace of recovery in domestic travel is moderating. Can the 2021 Lunar New Year holiday rescue China's travel service providers? Without a relaxation of restrictions in key regional markets, another major holiday travel period could be 'lost', in our opinion. We do not believe improving domestic activity can offset 'lost' outbound travel in Q121.We remain negative on Chinese travel demand. We believe the normalization of domestic and especially outbound activitity will take longer than expected -- no 'snap back' scenario, in other words. Furthermore, we believe underlying demand growth was slowing even before Covid19 hit, and it's become clear that domestic travel activity is unlikely to fully offset 'lost' outbound trips.

Chinese outbound travel activity remained moribund in October, even after another increase in trips to Macau, which eased some travel restrictions in July. Macau's slow recovery suggests it will take many months for outbound activity to normalize once regional restrictions are lifted. China's 'Golden Week' holiday period was a day longer this year, but by most measures domestic air activity in October remained weak versus 2019. Sequential improvement in RPKs and passenger counts in October was just +5% MoM, roughly in-line with normal seasonality, and travelers are still opting for shorter trips. We believe the pace of recovery in domestic travel is moderating. Can the 2021 Lunar New Year holiday rescue China's travel service providers? Without a relaxation of restrictions in key regional markets, another major holiday travel period could be 'lost', in our opinion. We do not believe improving domestic activity can offset 'lost' outbound travel in Q121.We remain negative on Chinese travel demand. We believe the normalization of domestic and especially outbound activitity will take longer than expected -- no 'snap back' scenario, in other words. Furthermore, we believe underlying demand growth was slowing even before Covid19 hit, and it's become clear that domestic travel activity is unlikely to fully offset 'lost' outbound trips. 

TRACKING TRAFFIC/Chinese Tourism: Macau's Slog | Golden Week Fails to Shine | LNY 2021 At Risk?

Global Emerging Market Equities, Propitious Research

Wium Malan, CFA

Global Emerging Market Equities

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/naspers-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21085:1" rel="noopener">Naspers (NPN SJ)</a> gives you deeply discounted exposure to one of the highest quality companies listed in the Emerging Markets, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent Holdings (700 HK)</a>. Should you back out the estimated fair values of all investments outside of Prosus’ 31% holding in Tencent from the current Naspers market cap, you are effectively buying exposure to Tencent for only 16.2x 2021F earnings.
Often overlooked, Naspers also gives exposure to a diverse range of online businesses, in differing stages of development, which are likely to structurally benefited from lasting changes to consumer behaviour in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic.
Further, Management has signalled their focus on meaningfully reducing its discount to listed net asset value by implementing a $5bn share buyback program, during November 2020, which should also support the share price through volatility in the near term. 
The key risk to the investment thesis regards the newly proposed Anti-Monopoly Compliance Guidelines for the Platform Economy released by China’s State Administration for Market Regulation (SAMR), a clear signal of tougher antitrust regulations going forward. Tencent should, however, be able to manage through these better than the large eCommerce players.

Naspers (NPN SJ) gives you deeply discounted exposure to one of the highest quality companies listed in the Emerging Markets, Tencent Holdings (700 HK). Should you back out the estimated fair values of all investments outside of Prosus’ 31% holding in Tencent from the current Naspers market cap, you are effectively buying exposure to Tencent for only 16.2x 2021F earnings.
Often overlooked, Naspers also gives exposure to a diverse range of online businesses, in differing stages of development, which are likely to structurally benefited from lasting changes to consumer behaviour in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic.
Further, Management has signalled their focus on meaningfully reducing its discount to listed net asset value by implementing a $5bn share buyback program, during November 2020, which should also support the share price through volatility in the near term. 
The key risk to the investment thesis regards the newly proposed Anti-Monopoly Compliance Guidelines for the Platform Economy released by China’s State Administration for Market Regulation (SAMR), a clear signal of tougher antitrust regulations going forward. Tencent should, however, be able to manage through these better than the large eCommerce players.

2021 High Conviction: Naspers, Deeply Discounted Exposure to Accelerating Online Sales

China

Trip.com Group Ltd. provides online travel agency services. The Company offers mobile applications, hotel reservations, flight ticketing, package tours, corporate travel management, and train ticketing services.

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Trip.com (TCOM US)

Meituan: 'Delivery Margin' Dipped in Q3 | How Patient Will Investors Be with 'New Initiatives'?

Meituan posted strong top-line growth in Q320, but core profitability dipped. We are concerned about 'delivery margin' and wonder how long...

Tracking Traffic

What Sets Airbnb Apart from Others?

Airbnb filed an amended S1 with the Securities and Exchange Commission on 1st of December 2020 to offer 50.0m new Class A common shares at an offer...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Trip.com Q320 Results Met Guidance, But Q420 Guidance Suggests Very Slow Recovery

Trip.com met Q320 net revenue guidance but offered guidance for Q420 that assumes only modest progress toward recovery in the current period.

Tracking Traffic

TRACKING TRAFFIC/Chinese Tourism: Macau's Slog | Golden Week Fails to Shine | LNY 2021 At Risk?

Chinese travel demand remained weak in October, which included the long Golden Week holiday. Poor outbound travel demand is not a surprise at this...

Tracking Traffic

2021 High Conviction: Naspers, Deeply Discounted Exposure to Accelerating Online Sales

Naspers: Deeply discounted exposure to Tencent, a diverse range of online businesses set to benefit from accelerated online activity post-COVID-19...

Wium Malan, CFA

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