Taiwan Tech Focused Senior Analyst

Patrick Liao

Equity Bottom-Up

Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp (SMIC) / Equity Bottom-Up

Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp (SMIC)

<ul>
<li>Expected sequential revenue growth of 13% to 15%, gross margin expected between 18% and 20%.</li>
<li>The company has not increased capacity utilization through price cuts but supports customers in facing competition to maintain market share.</li>
<li>Inventory replenishment behavior will end in the third quarter, and fourth-quarter orders will more accurately reflect actual demand rather than the impact of restocking.</li>
</ul>


Expected sequential revenue growth of 13% to 15%, gross margin expected between 18% and 20%.
The company has not increased capacity utilization through price cuts but supports customers in facing competition to maintain market share.
Inventory replenishment behavior will end in the third quarter, and fourth-quarter orders will more accurately reflect actual demand rather than the impact of restocking.


SMIC (981.HK): Revenue and GM Continued to Trend Up in 3Q24

Novatek Microelectronics Corp / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The 3Q24 revenue is expected 10.5% higher than 2Q24, but the GM/OPG outlook will be 5.1%/3.6% lower because of pricing adjustments and limited NRE sales .  </li>
<li>Smartphone's demand will enter peak season with expected stockpiling for new models. Automotive inventory adjustment is needed due to muted demand.  </li>
<li>Dividend payout ratio has remained at 80-85% in recent years, with no major changes expected.</li>
</ul>


The 3Q24 revenue is expected 10.5% higher than 2Q24, but the GM/OPG outlook will be 5.1%/3.6% lower because of pricing adjustments and limited NRE sales .  
Smartphone's demand will enter peak season with expected stockpiling for new models. Automotive inventory adjustment is needed due to muted demand.  
Dividend payout ratio has remained at 80-85% in recent years, with no major changes expected.


Novatek (3034.TT): 3Q24 Guidance Slightly Weak in GM

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

Taiwan Stock Exchange Weighted Index / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taiwan-stock-exchange-weighted-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26056:1" rel="noopener">Taiwan Stock Exchange Weighted Index (TWSE INDEX)</a> has surged this year as the Artificial Intelligence <s>hype</s> boom has taken over.</li>
<li>Short notional has risen too, more due to higher stock prices than due to increased shorting. However, there are stocks that have seen big changes in short interest YTD.</li>
<li>The largest YTD increase in shorts have been in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/novatek-microelectronics-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10904:1" rel="noopener">Novatek Microelectronics</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hon-hai-precision-industry-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:745:1" rel="noopener">Hon Hai Precision Industry</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lite-on-technology-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14591:1" rel="noopener">Lite On Technology</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/acer-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15726:1" rel="noopener">Acer</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/wistron-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2189:1" rel="noopener">Wistron Corp</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-steel-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:962:1" rel="noopener">China Steel</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zhen-ding-technology-holding-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16830:1" rel="noopener">Zhen Ding Technology Holding</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/chailease-holding-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6579:1" rel="noopener">Chailease Holding</a>.</li>
</ul>


The Taiwan Stock Exchange Weighted Index (TWSE INDEX) has surged this year as the Artificial Intelligence hype boom has taken over.
Short notional has risen too, more due to higher stock prices than due to increased shorting. However, there are stocks that have seen big changes in short interest YTD.
The largest YTD increase in shorts have been in Novatek Microelectronics, Hon Hai Precision Industry, Lite On Technology, Acer, Wistron Corp, China Steel, Zhen Ding Technology Holding and Chailease Holding.


Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR

<ul>
<li>Tough Start to the Week -- Negative News for Nvidia and Apple Supply Chains</li>
<li>Key Events: Asustek &amp; Novatek Results; Mediatek &amp; TSMC July Sales Data</li>
<li>UMC Signals Non-AI Industry Inventory Correction Through 2024E; Why Intel Is Increasingly Important </li>
</ul>


Tough Start to the Week -- Negative News for Nvidia and Apple Supply Chains
Key Events: Asustek &amp; Novatek Results; Mediatek &amp; TSMC July Sales Data
UMC Signals Non-AI Industry Inventory Correction Through 2024E; Why Intel Is Increasingly Important 


Taiwan Tech Weekly: Tough Start for Nvidia and Apple Supply Chains; Asustek, Novatek Results Ahead

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in foreign holdings of TWSE Stocks as of Aug 2nd which has an aggregated holding worth USD902.6bn.</li>
<li>We estimate that foreign flows to be outflows of USD2,923mln. We tabulate the league table for top changes by value for 1W/4W/1Y and top stocks held by foreign institutions.</li>
<li>We highlight foreign changes in Umc, TSMC, Hon Hai, Mediatek, Quanta Computer, Unimicron Tech.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in foreign holdings of TWSE Stocks as of Aug 2nd which has an aggregated holding worth USD902.6bn.
We estimate that foreign flows to be outflows of USD2,923mln. We tabulate the league table for top changes by value for 1W/4W/1Y and top stocks held by foreign institutions.
We highlight foreign changes in Umc, TSMC, Hon Hai, Mediatek, Quanta Computer, Unimicron Tech.


TWSE Foreign Holding Weekly (Aug 2nd): Umc, TSMC, Hon Hai, Mediatek, Quanta Computer, Unimicron Tech

Taiwan

United Microelectronics Corporation designs, manufactures, and markets integrated circuits (ICs) and related electronic products.  The Company's main products are consumer electronic ICs, memory ICs, personal computer peripheral ICs, and communication ICs.

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United Microelectronics Corp (2303 TT)

SMIC (981.HK): Revenue and GM Continued to Trend Up in 3Q24

Company expects solid revenue growth and stable gross margins, focusing on supporting customers and anticipating more accurate demand in upcoming...

Patrick Liao

Novatek (3034.TT): 3Q24 Guidance Slightly Weak in GM

3Q24 revenue to rise 10.5%, but GM/OPG outlook to drop 5.1%/3.6% due to pricing adjustments. Smartphone demand peaks, automotive inventory...

Patrick Liao

Taiwan: YTD Short Interest Moves

The TWSE has surged this year as semis and AI-linked stocks have rallied. The market crash could lead to covering in stocks with large shorts as...

Brian Freitas

Taiwan Tech Weekly: Tough Start for Nvidia and Apple Supply Chains; Asustek, Novatek Results Ahead

Nvidia and Apple negative news sets the Taiwan Tech universe off to a tough start of the week. This week look for Asustek, Novatek, Himax results...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

TWSE Foreign Holding Weekly (Aug 2nd): Umc, TSMC, Hon Hai, Mediatek, Quanta Computer, Unimicron Tech

We analyzed TWSE foreign holding data for the past week and highlighted foreign holding changes in Umc, TSMC, Hon Hai, Mediatek, Quanta Computer,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

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52-week Range

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SMIC (981.HK): Revenue and GM Continued to Trend Up in 3Q24

​Company expects solid revenue growth and stable gross margins, focusing on supporting customers and anticipating more accurate demand in upcoming...

Patrick Liao

Novatek (3034.TT): 3Q24 Guidance Slightly Weak in GM

​3Q24 revenue to rise 10.5%, but GM/OPG outlook to drop 5.1%/3.6% due to pricing adjustments. Smartphone demand peaks, automotive inventory...

Patrick Liao

Taiwan: YTD Short Interest Moves

The TWSE has surged this year as semis and AI-linked stocks have rallied. The market crash could lead to covering in stocks with large shorts as...

Brian Freitas

Taiwan Tech Weekly: Tough Start for Nvidia and Apple Supply Chains; Asustek, Novatek Results Ahead

Nvidia and Apple negative news sets the Taiwan Tech universe off to a tough start of the week. This week look for Asustek, Novatek, Himax results...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

TWSE Foreign Holding Weekly (Aug 2nd): Umc, TSMC, Hon Hai, Mediatek, Quanta Computer, Unimicron Tech

We analyzed TWSE foreign holding data for the past week and highlighted foreign holding changes in Umc, TSMC, Hon Hai, Mediatek, Quanta Computer,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Company expects solid revenue growth and stable gross margins, focusing on supporting customers and anticipating more accurate demand in upcoming...

3Q24 revenue to rise 10.5%, but GM/OPG outlook to drop 5.1%/3.6% due to pricing adjustments. Smartphone demand peaks, automotive inventory...