EM PM, Ecstrat

Emad Mostaque

EM PM

Ecstrat

Ecstrat is a consultancy advising on asset allocation between global equity markets, with a focus on the intersection of governments, geopolitics, governance and markets.
 
Over the past few years and more especially since the Great Financial Crisis (GFC), investors have become more focused on short-term market movements and real-time returns and have consequently neglected the analysis of the underlying structural themes that underpin longer term performance.
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More specifically we believe that the evolution of governance-based relationships between investors, controlling shareholders, labour and the state is one of the primary determinants of both relative and absolute performance between individual equity markets.
 
We will endeavour to provide investors with some of the context surrounding governance-related issues which encompass many different disciplines including history, economics and political science, as well as the financial metrics which are the most obvious manifestation of the structural characteristics of each market.
 
We will pay particular attention to the shifts and potential inflection points for governance in individual markets as these are often the best lead indicators for both economic and market performance.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

The last few days have seen a maelstrom of opinions and recrimination after the shock referendum decision to leave the EU.The lack of a concrete plan of action for an exit has shocked markets, leaving even those who avoid politics worried about the future.However, looking at the structure of western democracy a departure from the EU is very unlikely.

The last few days have seen a maelstrom of opinions and recrimination after the shock referendum decision to leave the EU.The lack of a concrete plan of action for an exit has shocked markets, leaving even those who avoid politics worried about the future.However, looking at the structure of western democracy a departure from the EU is very unlikely.

Transport Sector, China and Asia-focused Research

Charles De Trenck

Last week in my notes I pointed to the investment world being upside down and there being too much risk to be fully invested.Let’s set aside whether Banks, UK Banks or even UBS have gotten oversold and are trading buys post Brexit Vote. For my end, I am not going to trade more than 1-2% of holdings in banks. Just enough to get a feel. Not enough to do any damage. There may be some opportunities. There may be opportunities as well in names competing with WMT and in Telecoms…UK tracking device:…

Last week in my notes I pointed to the investment world being upside down and there being too much risk to be fully invested.Let’s set aside whether Banks, UK Banks or even UBS have gotten oversold and are trading buys post Brexit Vote. For my end, I am not going to trade more than 1-2% of holdings in banks. Just enough to get a feel. Not enough to do any damage. There may be some opportunities. There may be opportunities as well in names competing with WMT and in Telecoms…UK tracking device:…

The Dark Side of Glocalization (Even if Investment Opportunities)

Against market expectations the British have voted to exit the European Union, a process that could take a few years. The first order impact is being felt in the Eurozone, but the shockwaves could lead to one more leg down in Emerging Markets and potentially the US this year.

Against market expectations the British have voted to exit the European Union, a process that could take a few years. The first order impact is being felt in the Eurozone, but the shockwaves could lead to one more leg down in Emerging Markets and potentially the US this year.

Co-founder & Managing Director, Marketnomix 

Rajan Govil

Co-founder & Managing Director

Marketnomix 

Macroeconomics

The Federal Reserve can be expected to stay on course to normalize interest rate policy through the year as the unemployment rate continues to decline, hourly earnings remain on an upward trend and other economic indicators such as retail sales, house prices and consumer sentiment continue to improve on a trend basis.We expect the pace of rate increases to be very gradual, and see the Federal Funds rate around 1.0% by the end of 2016. The pace of increase will depend on the strength of the US…

The Federal Reserve can be expected to stay on course to normalize interest rate policy through the year as the unemployment rate continues to decline, hourly earnings remain on an upward trend and other economic indicators such as retail sales, house prices and consumer sentiment continue to improve on a trend basis.We expect the pace of rate increases to be very gradual, and see the Federal Funds rate around 1.0% by the end of 2016. The pace of increase will depend on the strength of the US…

US: Federal Reserve to Stay on Course to Normalize Rates

Asymmetric Payoffs, Thracian Capital Management

Asymmetric Payoffs

Thracian Capital Management

Our sixty-page market commentary for the month of June, including macro analysis and trade ideas across asset classes-- macro, volatility, equities, foreign exchange, commodities and credit / interest rates.

Our sixty-page market commentary for the month of June, including macro analysis and trade ideas across asset classes-- macro, volatility, equities, foreign exchange, commodities and credit / interest rates. 

United States

United Parcel Service, Inc.(UPS) delivers packages and documents throughout the United States and in other countries and territories.  The Company also provides global supply chain services and less-than-truckload transportation, primarily in the U.S. UPS's business consists of integrated air and ground pick-up and delivery network

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United Parcel Service Cl B (UPS US)

Why Brexit (Probably) Won't Happen

The last few days have seen a maelstrom of opinions and recrimination after the shock referendum decision to leave the EU.The lack of a concrete...

Emad Mostaque

The Dark Side of Glocalization (Even if Investment Opportunities)

Last week in my notes I pointed to the investment world being upside down and there being too much risk to be fully invested.Let’s set aside...

Charles De Trenck

Will Brexit Break EM's Back?

Against market expectations the British have voted to exit the European Union, a process that could take a few years. The first order impact is...

Emad Mostaque

US: Federal Reserve to Stay on Course to Normalize Rates

The Federal Reserve can be expected to stay on course to normalize interest rate policy through the year as the unemployment rate continues to...

Rajan Govil

Market Commentary (June 2016)

Our sixty-page market commentary for the month of June, including macro analysis and trade ideas across asset classes-- macro, volatility,...

Asymmetric Payoffs

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