Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>In last week's Compass (July 26) we discussed positive signals that we believe suggested the lows for this bear market may have already been established, or that downside is limited.</li>
<li>We continue to see more evidence that supports this claim; as a result, we are upgrading our outlook to neutral.</li>
<li>The SPX is reversing topside its 4-month downtrend, and the Russell 2000 (IWM), Russell Micro-Caps (IWC), and Russell 2000Growth (IWO) are each reversing topside their 9-month downtrends; the bottom's in.</li>
</ul>


In last week's Compass (July 26) we discussed positive signals that we believe suggested the lows for this bear market may have already been established, or that downside is limited.
We continue to see more evidence that supports this claim; as a result, we are upgrading our outlook to neutral.
The SPX is reversing topside its 4-month downtrend, and the Russell 2000 (IWM), Russell Micro-Caps (IWC), and Russell 2000Growth (IWO) are each reversing topside their 9-month downtrends; the bottom's in.


S&P 500 Reverses 4-Month Downtrend; Upgrading Consumer Discretionary to Market Weight

Select Medical Holdings / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We are starting to see some positive signals that suggest the lows for this bear market may have already been established, or that additional downside is limited from here.</li>
<li>We need to see downtrend reversals (get above 4030-4040 on SPX, $189 on IWM, and $115 on IWC) and for the NDX(QQQ) to break above $315, to get more constructive.</li>
<li>Positive signals include, among other things: the Financial Sector (XLF) and Broker-Dealers/Exchanges ETF (IAI) are reversing topside their 4-5-month downtrends.</li>
</ul>


We are starting to see some positive signals that suggest the lows for this bear market may have already been established, or that additional downside is limited from here.
We need to see downtrend reversals (get above 4030-4040 on SPX, $189 on IWM, and $115 on IWC) and for the NDX(QQQ) to break above $315, to get more constructive.
Positive signals include, among other things: the Financial Sector (XLF) and Broker-Dealers/Exchanges ETF (IAI) are reversing topside their 4-5-month downtrends.


Downgrading Utilities & Staples to Market Weight; Buy Ideas in Health Care & Trucking

<ul>
<li>We continue to view the price action over the past month as a bear market bounce in the S&amp;P 500, Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and Russell 2000 (IWM).</li>
<li>Each index appears to be forming a bearish flag pattern. Until the S&amp;P 500, QQQ, and IWM can break above their YTD downtrends, we remain bearish.</li>
<li>We continue to believe that this bear market is being fueled by the rising U.S. dollar (DXY), rising 10-yr Treasury yield, and the move higher in WTI crude oil.</li>
</ul>


We continue to view the price action over the past month as a bear market bounce in the S&amp;P 500, Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and Russell 2000 (IWM).
Each index appears to be forming a bearish flag pattern. Until the S&amp;P 500, QQQ, and IWM can break above their YTD downtrends, we remain bearish.
We continue to believe that this bear market is being fueled by the rising U.S. dollar (DXY), rising 10-yr Treasury yield, and the move higher in WTI crude oil.


U.S. Indexes Form Bear Flag Patterns Within Downtrends; Opportunities Within Health Care

iShares Russell 2000 ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We remain bearish as long as the YTD downtrends remain intact on the SPX and NDX (QQQ), and as long as the 7.5-month downtrend remains intact on the Russell 2000(IWM).</li>
<li>There is potential for a bounce given the SPX, QQQ, and IWM are all at downtrend channel supports.</li>
<li>The continued rise of the U.S. dollar (DXY), 10-yr Treasury yield, and WTI crude oil is what we believe is fueling the bear market in equities.</li>
</ul>


We remain bearish as long as the YTD downtrends remain intact on the SPX and NDX (QQQ), and as long as the 7.5-month downtrend remains intact on the Russell 2000(IWM).
There is potential for a bounce given the SPX, QQQ, and IWM are all at downtrend channel supports.
The continued rise of the U.S. dollar (DXY), 10-yr Treasury yield, and WTI crude oil is what we believe is fueling the bear market in equities.


Downgrading Materials; SPX, NDX, Russell 2000 Testing Downtrend Channel Support; Biotech Buys

<ul>
<li>The latest bear market rally came to a close last week after the S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) broke below their respective flag supports at 4070 and $304. </li>
<li>Last week we noted a break of these levels would likely mean a trip back to YTD lows and downtrend channel support, which is precisely where we are now.</li>
<li>We remain bearish as long as the downtrends remain intact on the S&amp;P 500, Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), Russell 2000 (IWM), S&amp;P 600 (IJR), and Russell Micro-Caps (IWC)</li>
</ul>


The latest bear market rally came to a close last week after the S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) broke below their respective flag supports at 4070 and $304. 
Last week we noted a break of these levels would likely mean a trip back to YTD lows and downtrend channel support, which is precisely where we are now.
We remain bearish as long as the downtrends remain intact on the S&amp;P 500, Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), Russell 2000 (IWM), S&amp;P 600 (IJR), and Russell Micro-Caps (IWC)


US Dollar & 10-Year Treasury Yield Breaking Out; Stick With Energy, Also Buying China Education Svcs

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

US Treasury (10 Yr Generic) (GT10 GOVT)

S&P 500 Reverses 4-Month Downtrend; Upgrading Consumer Discretionary to Market Weight

We continue to see more evidence suggesting the lows are in; as a result, we are upgrading our outlook to neutral. 4-month downtrend reversal for...

Vermilion Research

Downgrading Utilities & Staples to Market Weight; Buy Ideas in Health Care & Trucking

Positive developments are popping up, such as bullish reversals of 4-5-month downtrends for Financials $XLF and Broker-Dealers/Exchanges $IAI ....

Vermilion Research

U.S. Indexes Form Bear Flag Patterns Within Downtrends; Opportunities Within Health Care

We continue to view the price action over the past month as a bear market bounce in the S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and Russell 2000 (IWM), as each...

Vermilion Research

Downgrading Materials; SPX, NDX, Russell 2000 Testing Downtrend Channel Support; Biotech Buys

We remain bearish as long as the 6-8 month downtrends remain intact on the SPX, NDX (QQQ), and RUT (IWM). Bounce potential given SPX, QQQ, and IWM...

Vermilion Research

US Dollar & 10-Year Treasury Yield Breaking Out; Stick With Energy, Also Buying China Education Svcs

US Dollar $DXY & 10-Year Treasury Yield $TNX Breaking Out; Broad Equity Market Not Likely to Bottom Until the USD and Treasury Yields Start Moving...

Vermilion Research

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)