Founder

Olivier Desbarres

Exacting. Excellent. Exceeding. Exemplary.

4X Global Research

4X Global Research was founded in 2017 to provide institutional and corporate clients with the substantive research, high-quality analysis and thoughtful insight on Emerging and G20 economies and financial markets they need to make informed and timely decisions and gain an edge in their investments.

FX & Rates

<ul>
<li>Consensus forecast is for another set of record-breaking data US CPI-inflation figures but they have been volatile since Spring 2021 and thus hard to predict. </li>
<li>US companies have rapidly increased prices, particularly for goods, because they have had to (rising input costs) and importantly because they have been able to. </li>
<li>Cutting inflation in 2022 will be challenging for Fed. We continue to think that short-end Treasury yields will rise further, with volatility spikes to remain a reasonably frequent occurrence.</li>
</ul>


Consensus forecast is for another set of record-breaking data US CPI-inflation figures but they have been volatile since Spring 2021 and thus hard to predict. 
US companies have rapidly increased prices, particularly for goods, because they have had to (rising input costs) and importantly because they have been able to. 
Cutting inflation in 2022 will be challenging for Fed. We continue to think that short-end Treasury yields will rise further, with volatility spikes to remain a reasonably frequent occurrence.


US: High Inflation, Rising Yields, Repeat

House of Market Insights, Market Radar

Market Radar

House of Market Insights

Quick market updates and lot of ideas for your investments from a multi-asset portfolio manager working for a family office.

Quick Market Updates

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>A tough start, the new year has not started very well, especially for some asset classes.</li><li>In the first days of the year, the 10-Year Treasury Yield rose sharply, going from 1.5% to 1.75%, a very large move (25 bps).</li><li>It is clear that the sector rotation is back, and that value stocks are now overperforming growth stocks again (as already happened in the first half of 2021).</li></ul>

A tough start, the new year has not started very well, especially for some asset classes.In the first days of the year, the 10-Year Treasury Yield rose sharply, going from 1.5% to 1.75%, a very large move (25 bps).It is clear that the sector rotation is back, and that value stocks are now overperforming growth stocks again (as already happened in the first half of 2021).

Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

Technical Analysis

US Treasury (10 Yr Generic) / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We have made a bullish yield argument from the 10yr 1.37% zone to clear the key 1.68% breakout barrier. A yield spike will pressure tech at NDX macro trendline support.</li>
<li>NDX long term trendline make or break support lies at 15,300. We expect a break in later Q1 but if broken now it will bring forward a negative risk cycle.</li>
<li>Our macro 10yr yield rise to the 2%+ region for a top correlated with a peak in the equity cycle in late Q1. Rate sensitive ration undercurrents.</li>
</ul>


We have made a bullish yield argument from the 10yr 1.37% zone to clear the key 1.68% breakout barrier. A yield spike will pressure tech at NDX macro trendline support.
NDX long term trendline make or break support lies at 15,300. We expect a break in later Q1 but if broken now it will bring forward a negative risk cycle.
Our macro 10yr yield rise to the 2%+ region for a top correlated with a peak in the equity cycle in late Q1. Rate sensitive ration undercurrents.


Yield Breakout and NDX LT Trendline Inflection for US and Global Risk

Fixed Income and Currency Strategist

Gautam Jain, PhD, CFA

<ul>
<li>The performance of EM rates this year should be driven primarily by the behavior of US rates and domestic monetary policy, with fiscal policy playing less of a role.</li>
<li>Among the outliers in 2021, the moves in Indonesia, Poland, and Hungary were appropriate, but Brazil looks vulnerable. Instead of an outright payer in Brazil though, I like a steepener.</li>
<li>Besides Brazil, I like steepening trades in Russia, Czechia, and Colombia as curves should bull-steepen this year. Another one to track this year with a similar idea is Chile.</li>
</ul>


The performance of EM rates this year should be driven primarily by the behavior of US rates and domestic monetary policy, with fiscal policy playing less of a role.
Among the outliers in 2021, the moves in Indonesia, Poland, and Hungary were appropriate, but Brazil looks vulnerable. Instead of an outright payer in Brazil though, I like a steepener.
Besides Brazil, I like steepening trades in Russia, Czechia, and Colombia as curves should bull-steepen this year. Another one to track this year with a similar idea is Chile.


Gems Among Stones: EM Rates’ 2021 Performance and What to Expect in 2022

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

<ul>
<li>Our bottom line is that we could not be bearish as long as the IWM is above $208, the IWC is above $134-$135, and the S&amp;P 500 is above 4495.</li>
<li>These support levels have held strong, and we are now seeing the aforementioned risk-off signals starting to abate.</li>
<li>This is an encouraging sign and we remain constructive as long as the above support levels hold.</li>
</ul>


Our bottom line is that we could not be bearish as long as the IWM is above $208, the IWC is above $134-$135, and the S&amp;P 500 is above 4495.
These support levels have held strong, and we are now seeing the aforementioned risk-off signals starting to abate.
This is an encouraging sign and we remain constructive as long as the above support levels hold.


Risk-Off Signals Abating; Cyclicals Reassert as Rates Rise; Buying Fertilizer and Copper Stocks

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US Treasury (10 Yr Generic) (GT10 GOVT)

US: High Inflation, Rising Yields, Repeat

International energy/commodity prices and corporates largely hold key to CPI-inflation problem and Fed can only but further push up Treasury yields...

Olivier Desbarres

Value Rotation Is Here Again

A tough start, the new year has not started very well, especially for some asset classes.In the first days of the year, the 10-Year Treasury Yield...

Market Radar

Yield Breakout and NDX LT Trendline Inflection for US and Global Risk

We have made a bullish yield argument from the 10yr 1.37% zone to clear the key 1.68% breakout barrier. A yield spike will pressure tech at NDX...

Thomas Schroeder

Gems Among Stones: EM Rates’ 2021 Performance and What to Expect in 2022

Among the outliers in 2021, Brazil looks vulnerable. Instead of an outright payer though, I like a curve steepening trade in Brazil as I do in...

Gautam Jain, PhD, CFA

Risk-Off Signals Abating; Cyclicals Reassert as Rates Rise; Buying Fertilizer and Copper Stocks

Risk-off signals are abating which is an encouraging sign. Charts Highlighted: IWM, IWC, JETS, BAM, CBRE, INVH, JLL, HHC, JOE, MMI, APTS, CTO, AMT,...

Vermilion Research

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