Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Our outlook remains bullish, and since late-December we have been suggesting to use the pullback as a buying opportunity.</li>
<li>Most recent/highest conviction "buy-the-dip" call came last week (1/14/25) amid all major indexes testing supports (SPX, QQQ, DJI, IJH, VXF, IWM, ARKK, SMH), bullish breadth divergences, other ongoing bullish signals.</li>
<li>Those dip buys are finally paying off, with all these indexes breaking out from 1+month consolidations. The SPX has gapped-up on four of past five trading days, indicating significant strength</li>
</ul>


Our outlook remains bullish, and since late-December we have been suggesting to use the pullback as a buying opportunity.
Most recent/highest conviction "buy-the-dip" call came last week (1/14/25) amid all major indexes testing supports (SPX, QQQ, DJI, IJH, VXF, IWM, ARKK, SMH), bullish breadth divergences, other ongoing bullish signals.
Those dip buys are finally paying off, with all these indexes breaking out from 1+month consolidations. The SPX has gapped-up on four of past five trading days, indicating significant strength


Local Tops for 10-Year Treasury Yield, DXY, and Crude Oil; All Major Indexes Breaking Out. Bullish

S&P Small Cap 600 Index / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Our outlook remains bullish and the significant end-of-year rally that we have been expecting since mid-October is in full swing; continue to ride the trend higher.</li>
<li>Our election day Compass report (11/5/24) was titled "Buy the Pullback," and last week's Compass (11/19/24) was similarly titled "Buy the Pullback Again" </li>
<li>We continue to expect significant upside into year-end and the early part of 2025, with small- and mid-caps leading the way, and for index support at 20-day MAs.</li>
</ul>


Our outlook remains bullish and the significant end-of-year rally that we have been expecting since mid-October is in full swing; continue to ride the trend higher.
Our election day Compass report (11/5/24) was titled "Buy the Pullback," and last week's Compass (11/19/24) was similarly titled "Buy the Pullback Again" 
We continue to expect significant upside into year-end and the early part of 2025, with small- and mid-caps leading the way, and for index support at 20-day MAs.


Continue to Ride the Trend Higher; Upgrading Discretionary to Overweight; Overweight Mid/Small-Caps

<ul>
<li>Breadth continues to improve and Russell 2000 (IWM) small-caps and the Dow remain bullish, all while the S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) are going through a pullback/consolidation phase.</li>
<li>Considering the Russell 2000 vs. S&amp;P 500 ratio is reversing a 3.5-year downtrend, we expect this trend of small-cap outperformance to continue for months or longer.</li>
<li>With new risk-off signals emerging, potential pullback zones we would look for include 5100-5191 on the S&amp;P 500 and $443-$449 on the QQQ, expecting a low near the election.</li>
</ul>


Breadth continues to improve and Russell 2000 (IWM) small-caps and the Dow remain bullish, all while the S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) are going through a pullback/consolidation phase.
Considering the Russell 2000 vs. S&amp;P 500 ratio is reversing a 3.5-year downtrend, we expect this trend of small-cap outperformance to continue for months or longer.
With new risk-off signals emerging, potential pullback zones we would look for include 5100-5191 on the S&amp;P 500 and $443-$449 on the QQQ, expecting a low near the election.


Upgrading Health Care to Market Weight; Risk-Off Signals Suggest SPX and QQQ Pullback to Continue

<ul>
<li>The SPX, Nasdaq 100, and DJI breaking out to new all-time highs following 3-week consolidations. Russell 2000 (IWM), S&amp;P 400 (IJH), Vanguard ExtendedMarket (VXF), countless other Sectors/industries breaking out also.</li>
<li>This is classic bull market behavior. Considering market dynamics remain healthy, this is all evidence that supports our ongoing bullish outlook.</li>
<li>Software, Data Storage buys: NTAP, NTNX, DBX, VRNS, and CVLT. Investment Banking &amp; Brokerage, Mid-Cap buys: JEF, SF, EVR, MC, and LAZ</li>
</ul>


The SPX, Nasdaq 100, and DJI breaking out to new all-time highs following 3-week consolidations. Russell 2000 (IWM), S&amp;P 400 (IJH), Vanguard ExtendedMarket (VXF), countless other Sectors/industries breaking out also.
This is classic bull market behavior. Considering market dynamics remain healthy, this is all evidence that supports our ongoing bullish outlook.
Software, Data Storage buys: NTAP, NTNX, DBX, VRNS, and CVLT. Investment Banking &amp; Brokerage, Mid-Cap buys: JEF, SF, EVR, MC, and LAZ


Breakouts Proliferate; Bullish Outlook Intact; Small- And Mid-Caps to Lead?

<ul>
<li>The broad equity market has been on an absolute tear since we discussed in our 10/31/23 Compass how risk/reward favored buyers as key supports were being tested on SPX/QQQ/IWM</li>
<li>Furthermore, we discussed in our 11/7/23 Compass our belief that this was more than just another counter-trend rally, and that it is likely the start of a significant year-end rally.</li>
<li>Bullish developments have only continued; among them includes 3.5-month downtrend reversals on the S&amp;P 500 and QQQ. We expect more upside into year-end and beyond.</li>
</ul>


The broad equity market has been on an absolute tear since we discussed in our 10/31/23 Compass how risk/reward favored buyers as key supports were being tested on SPX/QQQ/IWM
Furthermore, we discussed in our 11/7/23 Compass our belief that this was more than just another counter-trend rally, and that it is likely the start of a significant year-end rally.
Bullish developments have only continued; among them includes 3.5-month downtrend reversals on the S&amp;P 500 and QQQ. We expect more upside into year-end and beyond.


Year-End Rally to Continue?; Riding the Trend Higher; Buys in Education Services and Retailers

United States

Universal Technical Institute Inc., through its Universal Technical Institute (UTI) campuses, provides technical education training. The Schools, through its UTI campuses, offers automotive, collision repair and refinishing, and diesel training. UTI also offers training in motorcycle, marine, and personal watercraft through its Motorcycle and Marine Mechanics Institutes(MMI).

Universal Technical Institute, Inc (UTI US)

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Universal Technical Institute, Inc (UTI US)

Local Tops for 10-Year Treasury Yield, DXY, and Crude Oil; All Major Indexes Breaking Out. Bullish

Local Tops for 10-Yr Treasury Yield $TNX, U.S. Dollar $DXY, & WTI Crude Oil $CL_F, Now Tailwinds for Equities; All Major Indexes We Discussed...

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Continue to Ride the Trend Higher; Upgrading Discretionary to Overweight; Overweight Mid/Small-Caps

Continue to Ride the Trend Higher; Upgrading Discretionary to Overweight $XLY $RSPD $XRT; Overweight Mid- & Small-Caps $IWM $IJR $IJH. Latest "Buy...

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Upgrading Health Care to Market Weight; Risk-Off Signals Suggest SPX and QQQ Pullback to Continue

Upgrading Health Care $XLV to Market Weight; New Risk-Off Signals Suggest Pullback in $SPX and $QQQ to Continue, looking for pullbacks to 5100-5191...

Vermilion Research

Breakouts Proliferate; Bullish Outlook Intact; Small- And Mid-Caps to Lead?

Breakouts Proliferate; Bullish Outlook Intact; Small- and Mid-Caps to Outperform? $SPX $QQQ $DJI breakout to all-time highs, $IWM $IJH $VXF,...

Vermilion Research

Year-End Rally to Continue?; Riding the Trend Higher; Buys in Education Services and Retailers

10/31/23 we discussed how risk/reward favored buyers as key $SPX $QQQ $IWM supports were being tested. 11/7/23 we argued it was MORE than just...

Vermilion Research

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