Junior Finance Analyst, Steno Research

Ulrik Simmelholt

Junior Finance Analyst

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>Let’s start with the current situation in the Red Sea.</li><li>Things are very grim and the only container ships that currently dare to sail through the Red Sea are Russian due to their support of Iran and the Houthis.</li><li>Yesterday a Maersk ship hauling US government cargo had to turn back in the Red Sea after explosions nearby.</li></ul>

Let’s start with the current situation in the Red Sea.Things are very grim and the only container ships that currently dare to sail through the Red Sea are Russian due to their support of Iran and the Houthis.Yesterday a Maersk ship hauling US government cargo had to turn back in the Red Sea after explosions nearby.

Shipping Watch: Consider buying your Christmas presents now!

<ul><li>This week we are watching out for the following 5 topics within global macro: US vs EUR, China Stimulus, Euro PMIs, Nikkei, Suez </li><li>The last month of 2023 really showcased markets’ proclaimed inflation victory, with the Fed and other central banks promising rate cuts, disinflation trends continuing and equity prices rocketing, but the disinflation might be over, at least in the US as risks of higher inflation have been anchored in expectations.</li><li>Judging from relative inflation swaps, we have now exited the inflation convergence regime for 2022/2023 when markets convinced themselves that the inflation embeddedness was as much a European thing as it was an American thing.</li></ul>

This week we are watching out for the following 5 topics within global macro: US vs EUR, China Stimulus, Euro PMIs, Nikkei, Suez The last month of 2023 really showcased markets’ proclaimed inflation victory, with the Fed and other central banks promising rate cuts, disinflation trends continuing and equity prices rocketing, but the disinflation might be over, at least in the US as risks of higher inflation have been anchored in expectations.Judging from relative inflation swaps, we have now exited the inflation convergence regime for 2022/2023 when markets convinced themselves that the inflation embeddedness was as much a European thing as it was an American thing.

5 Things – Inflation Divergence, China, Euro PMIs, NIkkei and Suez

Elias Lisberg Glistrup

<ul><li>Welcome to this chart-dense edition of the Equity Watch, where we zoom in on the Japanese Nikkei 225 and ponder whether it’s too late to capitalize on its stride, or if the bet in fact has got legs and fundamentals working for it.</li><li>Yesterday morning CET, the BoJ announced its latest monetary policy decision, and once again, it chose to maintain the status quo.</li><li>While FX and FI are synonymous to Japan, its equity market has arguably transformed from under-equitized to one of the hottest bull markets in the uncertain conditions of today.</li></ul>

Welcome to this chart-dense edition of the Equity Watch, where we zoom in on the Japanese Nikkei 225 and ponder whether it’s too late to capitalize on its stride, or if the bet in fact has got legs and fundamentals working for it.Yesterday morning CET, the BoJ announced its latest monetary policy decision, and once again, it chose to maintain the status quo.While FX and FI are synonymous to Japan, its equity market has arguably transformed from under-equitized to one of the hottest bull markets in the uncertain conditions of today.

Equity Watch: Japan – Board or abort Nikkei 225?

Podcast by J.P. Morgan analysts on global markets, At Any Rate

At Any Rate

Podcast by J.P. Morgan analysts on global markets

Analysts from J.P. Morgan’s Research team take a closer look at the stories behind some of the biggest trends, themes and developments in markets today.

FX & Rates

<ul><li>The bond basis is a significant concern for investors, as the long end of the curve has been steepening and rates are rising, increasing the probability of shifts in the cheapest deliverable (CTD).</li><li>There are several bonds that are nearly equally cheap, meaning they are not currently the CTD but are close enough to potentially become the CTD. This could impact futures pricing.</li><li>Investors who are long the March bond futures contract can hedge against the risk of CTD duration extension by buying March bond contract puts with a strike price of 118. This can mimic a long basis position.</li></ul><p><em>This podcast is sourced from an online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only.</em></p>

The bond basis is a significant concern for investors, as the long end of the curve has been steepening and rates are rising, increasing the probability of shifts in the cheapest deliverable (CTD).There are several bonds that are nearly equally cheap, meaning they are not currently the CTD but are close enough to potentially become the CTD. This could impact futures pricing.Investors who are long the March bond futures contract can hedge against the risk of CTD duration extension by buying March bond contract puts with a strike price of 118. This can mimic a long basis position.This podcast is sourced from an online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only.

US Rates: Polar Vortex Duration Extension

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

<ul><li>The ECB is unlikely to rock the boat on Thursday but we still find strong risk/reward in betting on substantial forecast errors by the staff in Frankfurt in the coming months.</li><li>Here is why!In this short update on the ECB ahead of the first meeting of the year on Thursday, we aim at collecting our observations on EUR inflation, EUR growth and EUR liquidity- and boil it all down to an actionable assessment of the ECB outlook versus the forward pricing.</li><li>The ECB will most likely patiently await the outcome of wage developments through Q1 and the scope of VAT increases impacting the EUR HICP outlook.</li></ul>

The ECB is unlikely to rock the boat on Thursday but we still find strong risk/reward in betting on substantial forecast errors by the staff in Frankfurt in the coming months.Here is why!In this short update on the ECB ahead of the first meeting of the year on Thursday, we aim at collecting our observations on EUR inflation, EUR growth and EUR liquidity- and boil it all down to an actionable assessment of the ECB outlook versus the forward pricing.The ECB will most likely patiently await the outcome of wage developments through Q1 and the scope of VAT increases impacting the EUR HICP outlook.

United States

The US dollar is the official currency of the United States of America.

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Shipping Watch: Consider buying your Christmas presents now!

Let’s start with the current situation in the Red Sea. Things are very grim and the only container ships that currently dare to sail through the...

Steno Research

5 Things – Inflation Divergence, China, Euro PMIs, NIkkei and Suez

This week we are watching out for the following 5 topics within global macro: US vs EURChina Stimulus Euro PMIsNikkeiSuez1) Inflation comeback in...

Steno Research

Equity Watch: Japan – Board or abort Nikkei 225?

Welcome to this chart-dense edition of the Equity Watch, where we zoom in on the Japanese Nikkei 225 and ponder whether it’s too late to...

Steno Research

US Rates: Polar Vortex Duration Extension

Investors who are long the March bond futures contract can hedge against the risk of CTD duration extension by buying March bond contract puts with...

At Any Rate

ECB Watch: Trading the January lull

The ECB is unlikely to rock the boat on Thursday but we still find strong risk/reward in betting on substantial forecast errors by the staff in...

Steno Research

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