Asia L/S Equity PM/Macro/Thematic Idea Generation

Rikki Malik

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Continuing review of the sectors we like for the next phase of the HK/China bull market</li>
<li>In financials, insurers are a lower volatility way of playing the equity market revival</li>
<li>Watch for a reversal of bond yields as a signal to buy</li>
</ul>


Continuing review of the sectors we like for the next phase of the HK/China bull market
In financials, insurers are a lower volatility way of playing the equity market revival
Watch for a reversal of bond yields as a signal to buy


Timing the Entry into the Insurance Sector for the Next Phase of the HK/China Bull Market

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Andy Fu

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

<ul>
<li>As we previously noted, Chinese housing market started 2025 with a bang but quickly deteriorated. This trend became more pronounced post CNY; </li>
<li>Is this a temporary lull from the very strong start? Or it signals something more troublesome in consumption in 2025? </li>
<li>We now think our forecasted 25% GTV growth by Beike in C1Q25 is at risk.</li>
</ul>


As we previously noted, Chinese housing market started 2025 with a bang but quickly deteriorated. This trend became more pronounced post CNY; 
Is this a temporary lull from the very strong start? Or it signals something more troublesome in consumption in 2025? 
We now think our forecasted 25% GTV growth by Beike in C1Q25 is at risk.


Fast Deterioration of Housing Transaction Post CNY Pointed to Fragile Recovery

Index Rebal Trades & Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Index Rebal Trades & Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The HSTECH Index tracks the performance of the top 30 technology companies listed in Hong Kong that have high business exposure to certain technology themes. </li>
<li>The official index changes and indicative weights for the March 2025 index rebal event will be announced on Friday 21st February 2025.</li>
<li>We continue to expect <em>one</em> change for the HSTECH index in March 2025, combined with capping flows of US$716mn.</li>
</ul>


The HSTECH Index tracks the performance of the top 30 technology companies listed in Hong Kong that have high business exposure to certain technology themes. 
The official index changes and indicative weights for the March 2025 index rebal event will be announced on Friday 21st February 2025.
We continue to expect one change for the HSTECH index in March 2025, combined with capping flows of US$716mn.


Quiddity Leaderboard HSTECH Mar 25: US$716mn One-Way; Large Outflow for Xiaomi

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>In the post-CNY return, SOUTHBOUND gross trading activity was stronger per day than the previous several weeks, but SB Net Buying was not. </li>
<li>Tech ended up being a big net buy, but <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent (700 HK)</a> a big net sell. </li>
<li>Lower-Than-Expected tariff rates against China meant foreigners are back to buying Chinese stocks for the time being which may lower SB net buys near-term.</li>
</ul>


In the post-CNY return, SOUTHBOUND gross trading activity was stronger per day than the previous several weeks, but SB Net Buying was not. 
Tech ended up being a big net buy, but Tencent (700 HK) a big net sell. 
Lower-Than-Expected tariff rates against China meant foreigners are back to buying Chinese stocks for the time being which may lower SB net buys near-term.


HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 7 Feb 2025); Busy Start Post CNY But Clear Selling of High Div SOEs

Tracking developments across tech supply chains, Tech Supply Chain Tracker

Tech Supply Chain Tracker

Tracking developments across tech supply chains

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Top Chinese cloud platforms are supporting DeepSeek as AI changes the landscape of cloud intelligence.</li><li>Meta and Google are pushing forward with smart glasses development, overcoming obstacles in the Asian supply chain.</li><li>SiPh progress is exceeding TSMC's expectations, heating up the optical communication CPO market earlier than anticipated.</li></ul>

Top Chinese cloud platforms are supporting DeepSeek as AI changes the landscape of cloud intelligence.Meta and Google are pushing forward with smart glasses development, overcoming obstacles in the Asian supply chain.SiPh progress is exceeding TSMC's expectations, heating up the optical communication CPO market earlier than anticipated.

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (07-Feb-2025): Chinese cloud giants support DeepSeek as AI revolutionizes cloud.

China

Xiaomi Corporation manufactures communication equipment and parts. The Company produces and sells mobile phones, smart phone software,  set-top boxes, and related accessories. Xiaomi markets its products worldwide.

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Xiaomi (1810 HK)

Timing the Entry into the Insurance Sector for the Next Phase of the HK/China Bull Market

Analysis of sectors favored for the upcoming phase of the HK/China bull market, with a focus on insurers as a lower volatility option and a tip to...

Rikki Malik

Fast Deterioration of Housing Transaction Post CNY Pointed to Fragile Recovery

Home transactions in 2025 are below trend post Chinese New Year due to a temporary lull after crowded trading, with potential downside risk for...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Quiddity Leaderboard HSTECH Mar 25: US$716mn One-Way; Large Outflow for Xiaomi

We expect Horizon Robotics to be added and East Buy Holdings to be deleted. Horizon Robotics has steeply outperformed East Buy Holdings during the...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 7 Feb 2025); Busy Start Post CNY But Clear Selling of High Div SOEs

Post Chinese New Year, SOUTHBOUND activity is heavy but with low net buying. Tech was net bought last week, and high div SOEs were sold. Foreigners...

Travis Lundy

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (07-Feb-2025): Chinese cloud giants support DeepSeek as AI revolutionizes cloud.

Top Chinese cloud platforms support DeepSeek AI as it shapes cloud intelligence landscape, while Meta and Google push smart glasses forward despite...

Tech Supply Chain Tracker

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Timing the Entry into the Insurance Sector for the Next Phase of the HK/China Bull Market

​Analysis of sectors favored for the upcoming phase of the HK/China bull market, with a focus on insurers as a lower volatility option and a tip to...

Rikki Malik

Fast Deterioration of Housing Transaction Post CNY Pointed to Fragile Recovery

​Home transactions in 2025 are below trend post Chinese New Year due to a temporary lull after crowded trading, with potential downside risk for...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Quiddity Leaderboard HSTECH Mar 25: US$716mn One-Way; Large Outflow for Xiaomi

We expect Horizon Robotics to be added and East Buy Holdings to be deleted. Horizon Robotics has steeply outperformed East Buy Holdings during the...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 7 Feb 2025); Busy Start Post CNY But Clear Selling of High Div SOEs

Post Chinese New Year, SOUTHBOUND activity is heavy but with low net buying. Tech was net bought last week, and high div SOEs were sold. Foreigners...

Travis Lundy

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (07-Feb-2025): Chinese cloud giants support DeepSeek as AI revolutionizes cloud.

Top Chinese cloud platforms support DeepSeek AI as it shapes cloud intelligence landscape, while Meta and Google push smart glasses forward despite...

Tech Supply Chain Tracker

Analysis of sectors favored for the upcoming phase of the HK/China bull market, with a focus on insurers as a lower volatility option and a tip to...

Home transactions in 2025 are below trend post Chinese New Year due to a temporary lull after crowded trading, with potential downside risk for...