Blue Lotus China New Economy Research, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Eric Wen

Blue Lotus China New Economy Research

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>
Macro: China may issue RMB3tn of special treasury bonds in 2025, accounting for 2.2% of GDP, 3rd highest in history;</li>
<li>
EV: BEV sector showed renewed interest with (1) CATL made battery swapping move, (2) Xiaomi gained access to charging network of NIO, XPEV and LI;</li>
<li>
SaaS: After making progress by its own, Beike terminated a major acquisition to save cost. Plus others...</li>
</ul>



Macro: China may issue RMB3tn of special treasury bonds in 2025, accounting for 2.2% of GDP, 3rd highest in history;

EV: BEV sector showed renewed interest with (1) CATL made battery swapping move, (2) Xiaomi gained access to charging network of NIO, XPEV and LI;

SaaS: After making progress by its own, Beike terminated a major acquisition to save cost. Plus others...


China Growth Equity Weekly Wrap (52/2024): Positive Macro, BEV Revival & Good Time to Invest in SaaS

HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

<ul>
<li>2024 marks another year that our "Buy the worst" strategy underperformed the HSI. The strategy yielded -1.7% YTD, against HSI's +17.9%. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/meituan" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26970:1" rel="noopener">Meituan (3690 HK)</a> is the only winner.</li>
<li>For 2025, the strategy will switch to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/budweiser-brewing-co-apac-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28077:1" rel="noopener">Budweiser Brewing (1876 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/chow-tai-fook-jewellery-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:549:1" rel="noopener">Chow Tai Fook (1929 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-lung-properties-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:49:1" rel="noopener">Hang Lung Props (101 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/wuxi-apptec" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23679:1" rel="noopener">Wuxi Biologics (2269 HK)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cspc-pharmaceutical-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:229:1" rel="noopener">CSPC Pharmaceutical (1093 HK)</a>.  </li>
<li>The top five HSI winners YTD 2024 have generated an average gain of 92.7%, outperforming the HSI massively. Given their current high valuations, this is unlikely to repeat in 2025.</li>
</ul>


2024 marks another year that our "Buy the worst" strategy underperformed the HSI. The strategy yielded -1.7% YTD, against HSI's +17.9%. Meituan (3690 HK) is the only winner.
For 2025, the strategy will switch to Budweiser Brewing (1876 HK), Chow Tai Fook (1929 HK), Hang Lung Props (101 HK), Wuxi Biologics (2269 HK), and CSPC Pharmaceutical (1093 HK).  
The top five HSI winners YTD 2024 have generated an average gain of 92.7%, outperforming the HSI massively. Given their current high valuations, this is unlikely to repeat in 2025.


"Buy the Worst" HSI Strategy: Another Disappointing Year in 2024, Let's See 2025

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyze statistics on top repurchases over one week, one month, one quarter and one year periods ended on Dec 27th based on HKEx daily reports.</li>
<li>In the past 7 days, the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares from the market were Tencent (700 HK), Kuaishou Technology (1024 HK), AIA (1299 HK).</li>
<li>In the past 30 days, the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares from the market were Tencent (700 HK), AIA (1299 HK), Kuaishou Technology (1024 HK).</li>
</ul>


We analyze statistics on top repurchases over one week, one month, one quarter and one year periods ended on Dec 27th based on HKEx daily reports.
In the past 7 days, the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares from the market were Tencent (700 HK), Kuaishou Technology (1024 HK), AIA (1299 HK).
In the past 30 days, the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares from the market were Tencent (700 HK), AIA (1299 HK), Kuaishou Technology (1024 HK).


Hong Kong Buybacks Weekly (Dec 27th): Tencent, Kuaishou Technology, AIA

Tracking developments across tech supply chains, Tech Supply Chain Tracker

Tech Supply Chain Tracker

Tracking developments across tech supply chains

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>AI inkjet breakthrough in semiconductor manufacturing promises more precise coating, revolutionizing tech industry processes.</li><li>China's price war in EV sector causes financial chaos and supply chain disruptions for 2 years, impacting global market.</li><li>US House considers OLED import ban following patent dispute with Samsung Display Corporation, keeping spotlight on patent issues.</li></ul>

AI inkjet breakthrough in semiconductor manufacturing promises more precise coating, revolutionizing tech industry processes.China's price war in EV sector causes financial chaos and supply chain disruptions for 2 years, impacting global market.US House considers OLED import ban following patent dispute with Samsung Display Corporation, keeping spotlight on patent issues.

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (26-Dec-2024): AI inkjet tech offers precise semiconductor coating.

TongFu Microelectronics   / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>TSMC's new wafer manufacturing technology is changing the advanced packaging industry, causing a forecasted slump in general-purpose memory for Samsung and SK Hynix.</li><li>Micron is leading the way in HBM4 development, aiming for mass production by 2026, while India's semiconductor growth is highlighted by Marvell ahead of VLSI conference.</li><li>China's chip crackdown escalates as global semiconductor landscape evolves, with Tesla Shanghai factory head resigning and Xiaomi denying poaching rumors. Dixon partners with Vivo to boost local production in India.</li></ul>

TSMC's new wafer manufacturing technology is changing the advanced packaging industry, causing a forecasted slump in general-purpose memory for Samsung and SK Hynix.Micron is leading the way in HBM4 development, aiming for mass production by 2026, while India's semiconductor growth is highlighted by Marvell ahead of VLSI conference.China's chip crackdown escalates as global semiconductor landscape evolves, with Tesla Shanghai factory head resigning and Xiaomi denying poaching rumors. Dixon partners with Vivo to boost local production in India.

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (24-Dec-2024): TSMC transforms packaging market with wafer manufacturing 2.0.

China

Xiaomi Corporation manufactures communication equipment and parts. The Company produces and sells mobile phones, smart phone software,  set-top boxes, and related accessories. Xiaomi markets its products worldwide.

Price Gauge
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Xiaomi (1810 HK)

China Growth Equity Weekly Wrap (52/2024): Positive Macro, BEV Revival & Good Time to Invest in SaaS

China plans to issue RMB3tn in special treasury bonds in 2025, BEV sector sees growth with battery swapping and charging network partnerships,...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

"Buy the Worst" HSI Strategy: Another Disappointing Year in 2024, Let's See 2025

The 2024 "Buy the worst" strategy has underperformed HSI, and the new picks for 2025 are Budweiser APAC, Chow Tai Fook, Hang Lung Properties, Wuxi...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Hong Kong Buybacks Weekly (Dec 27th): Tencent, Kuaishou Technology, AIA

We analyzed the Hong Kong buyback data in the past week and highlight the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares were Tencent (700 HK),...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (26-Dec-2024): AI inkjet tech offers precise semiconductor coating.

AI inkjet breakthrough enhances semiconductor production; China's EV price war disrupts market; US House considers OLED import ban after patent...

Tech Supply Chain Tracker

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (24-Dec-2024): TSMC transforms packaging market with wafer manufacturing 2.0.

TSMC shakes up advanced packaging with new wafer tech; Micron focuses on overcoming memory slump, advancing HBM4 development for mass production in...

Tech Supply Chain Tracker

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

China Growth Equity Weekly Wrap (52/2024): Positive Macro, BEV Revival & Good Time to Invest in SaaS

​China plans to issue RMB3tn in special treasury bonds in 2025, BEV sector sees growth with battery swapping and charging network partnerships,...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

"Buy the Worst" HSI Strategy: Another Disappointing Year in 2024, Let's See 2025

​The 2024 "Buy the worst" strategy has underperformed HSI, and the new picks for 2025 are Budweiser APAC, Chow Tai Fook, Hang Lung Properties, Wuxi...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Hong Kong Buybacks Weekly (Dec 27th): Tencent, Kuaishou Technology, AIA

We analyzed the Hong Kong buyback data in the past week and highlight the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares were Tencent (700 HK),...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (26-Dec-2024): AI inkjet tech offers precise semiconductor coating.

AI inkjet breakthrough enhances semiconductor production; China's EV price war disrupts market; US House considers OLED import ban after patent...

Tech Supply Chain Tracker

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (24-Dec-2024): TSMC transforms packaging market with wafer manufacturing 2.0.

TSMC shakes up advanced packaging with new wafer tech; Micron focuses on overcoming memory slump, advancing HBM4 development for mass production in...

Tech Supply Chain Tracker

China plans to issue RMB3tn in special treasury bonds in 2025, BEV sector sees growth with battery swapping and charging network partnerships,...

The 2024 "Buy the worst" strategy has underperformed HSI, and the new picks for 2025 are Budweiser APAC, Chow Tai Fook, Hang Lung Properties, Wuxi...