Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Shifara Samsudeen, FCMA, CGMA

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Capital Markets

<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jd-logistics" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31500:1" rel="noopener">JD Logistics (JDL HK)</a> , the delivery arm of China’s second largest e-commerce platform JD.com has filed for an IPO to list its shares on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. In our previous insights on JD logistics’ IPO, we examined the company’s business model, revenue, margins and the outlook for the company.</p><p>According to news media outlets, JD Logistics is looking to raise about US$3-4bn at a valuation of US$40bn. This insight focuses on our financial forecasts and thoughts on the company’s rumoured US$40.0bn valuation.</p><p>Read our previous insights:</p><p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/jd-logistics-investment-for-growth-to-hurt-margins-in-the-medium-term-but-key-to-long-term-profits" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:50984" rel="noopener">JD Logistics: Investment for Growth to Hurt Margins in the Medium-Term but Key to Long-Term Profits</a> </p><p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/jd-logistics-ipo-expanding-external-customer-base-supports-top-line-growth-and-gpm-expansion" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:48526" rel="noopener">JD Logistics IPO: Expanding External Customer Base Supports Top Line Growth and GPM Expansion</a> </p><p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/jd-logistics-ipo-margin-improvement-likely-with-expanding-external-revenues-and-falling-costs" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:48764" rel="noopener">JD Logistics IPO: Margin Improvement Likely with Expanding External Revenues and Falling Costs</a> </p>

JD Logistics (JDL HK) , the delivery arm of China’s second largest e-commerce platform JD.com has filed for an IPO to list its shares on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. In our previous insights on JD logistics’ IPO, we examined the company’s business model, revenue, margins and the outlook for the company.According to news media outlets, JD Logistics is looking to raise about US$3-4bn at a valuation of US$40bn. This insight focuses on our financial forecasts and thoughts on the company’s rumoured US$40.0bn valuation.Read our previous insights:JD Logistics: Investment for Growth to Hurt Margins in the Medium-Term but Key to Long-Term Profits JD Logistics IPO: Expanding External Customer Base Supports Top Line Growth and GPM Expansion JD Logistics IPO: Margin Improvement Likely with Expanding External Revenues and Falling Costs 

JD Logistics IPO: Financial Forecasts and Initial Thoughts on Rumoured US$40.0bn Valuation

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<div>
<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jd-logistics" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31500:1" rel="noopener">JD Logistics (JDL HK)</a> is the largest player in China’s integrated supply chain logistics services market, with a 2.2% revenue market share in 2019, according to CIC. JD Logistics was founded with the formation of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jd-com-inc-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:446:1" rel="noopener">JD.com Inc (ADR) (JD US)</a>’s in-house logistics department in 2007.</p>
<p>JD Logistics is seeking to raise up to $3-4 billion at a $40 billion valuation, according to press reports. Merrill Lynch and Haitong, which are part of the syndicate, have valued JD Logistics at $30.0-45.4 billion and $42.4-44.3 billion, respectively, <a href="https://www.thestandard.com.hk/section-news/section/2/229859/JD-Logistics-gets-ball-rolling-for-US%244b-IPO" target="_blank" rel="noopener">according to press reports</a>. </p>
</div><div>
<p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/jd-logistics-ipo-initiation-the-flow-of-things" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:48279" rel="noopener">JD Logistics IPO Initiation: The Flow of Things</a>, we stated that JD Logistics is an indirect play on the shift of some customer behaviour permanently to online shopping, particularly in fast-moving consumer goods. We concluded that JD Logistics fundamentals are attractive and it remains well-placed to address consumers demand faster and more flexible supply chain logistics services.</p>
<p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/jd-logistics-ipo-prioritizing-market-share-gains-over-margins" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:50976" rel="noopener">JD Logistics IPO: Prioritizing Market Share Gains over Margins</a>,  we noted that the PHIP which discloses the 2020 results and recent developments underscore the positives which are strong growth, rising margin and cash generation. However, the outlook is mixed as JD Logistics cautions that it will pursue market share gains at the cost of profitability over the medium term. We opined that JD Logistics has the right ingredients to ride out the industry’s current price-competitive dynamics and deliver good shareholder returns over the medium term. </p>
</div><div><div><div class="content-highlight"><p>In this note, we update our forecasts and valuation presented in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/jd-logistics-ipo-valuation-first-look" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:48384" rel="noopener">JD Logistics IPO: Valuation First Look</a> for the latest set of results and the margin guidance. Overall, based on valuation analysis, we think that the rumoured $40 billion valuation target is fair, particularly in the context of JD Logistics' positioning and higher than peers forecasted growth. </p></div></div></div>


JD Logistics (JDL HK) is the largest player in China’s integrated supply chain logistics services market, with a 2.2% revenue market share in 2019, according to CIC. JD Logistics was founded with the formation of JD.com Inc (ADR) (JD US)’s in-house logistics department in 2007.
JD Logistics is seeking to raise up to $3-4 billion at a $40 billion valuation, according to press reports. Merrill Lynch and Haitong, which are part of the syndicate, have valued JD Logistics at $30.0-45.4 billion and $42.4-44.3 billion, respectively, according to press reports. 

In JD Logistics IPO Initiation: The Flow of Things, we stated that JD Logistics is an indirect play on the shift of some customer behaviour permanently to online shopping, particularly in fast-moving consumer goods. We concluded that JD Logistics fundamentals are attractive and it remains well-placed to address consumers demand faster and more flexible supply chain logistics services.
In JD Logistics IPO: Prioritizing Market Share Gains over Margins,  we noted that the PHIP which discloses the 2020 results and recent developments underscore the positives which are strong growth, rising margin and cash generation. However, the outlook is mixed as JD Logistics cautions that it will pursue market share gains at the cost of profitability over the medium term. We opined that JD Logistics has the right ingredients to ride out the industry’s current price-competitive dynamics and deliver good shareholder returns over the medium term. 
In this note, we update our forecasts and valuation presented in JD Logistics IPO: Valuation First Look for the latest set of results and the margin guidance. Overall, based on valuation analysis, we think that the rumoured $40 billion valuation target is fair, particularly in the context of JD Logistics' positioning and higher than peers forecasted growth. 

JD Logistics IPO: Valuation and Forecast Update

APAC IPOs & Placements

Zhen Zhou, Toh

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

<div><p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jd-logistics" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31500:1" rel="noopener">JD Logistics (JDL HK)</a> is looking to raise US$4bn in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO. </p></div><div><p>JD Logistics (JDL) was the leading supply chain solutions and logistics services provider in China in terms of revenue in 2018 and 2019. The company offers a full spectrum of supply chain solutions and logistics services ranging from warehousing to distribution, spanning across manufacturing to end-customers, covering regular and specialized items. </p></div><div><p>In this note, we briefly look at the JDL’s PHIP filing which includes FY2020 numbers and fine-tune our valuation model.</p></div><div><p>We had previously covered the IPO in:</p></div><div><ul style="list-style-type: disc;">
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/jd-logistics-pre-ipo-peer-comparison-shielded-from-price-war" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:50575" rel="noopener">JD Logistics (京东物流) Pre-IPO - Peer Comparison - Shielded from Price War</a> </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/jd-logistics-pre-ipo-tethered-to-jd-group-and-looking-beyond" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:48396" rel="noopener">JD Logistics (京东物流) Pre-IPO - Tethered to JD Group and Looking Beyond</a> </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/jd-logistics-pre-ipo-thoughts-on-valuation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:50953" rel="noopener">JD Logistics (京东物流) Pre-IPO - Thoughts on Valuation</a> </li>
</ul></div>

JD Logistics (JDL HK) is looking to raise US$4bn in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO. JD Logistics (JDL) was the leading supply chain solutions and logistics services provider in China in terms of revenue in 2018 and 2019. The company offers a full spectrum of supply chain solutions and logistics services ranging from warehousing to distribution, spanning across manufacturing to end-customers, covering regular and specialized items. In this note, we briefly look at the JDL’s PHIP filing which includes FY2020 numbers and fine-tune our valuation model.We had previously covered the IPO in:

JD Logistics (京东物流) Pre-IPO - Peer Comparison - Shielded from Price War 

JD Logistics (京东物流) Pre-IPO - Tethered to JD Group and Looking Beyond 

JD Logistics (京东物流) Pre-IPO - Thoughts on Valuation 


JD Logistics (京东物流) Pre-IPO - PHIP Updates and Fine-Tuning Valuation

<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jd-logistics" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31500:1" rel="noopener">JD Logistics (JDL HK)</a> is the largest player in China’s integrated supply chain logistics services market, with a 2.7% revenue market share in 2020, according to CIC. JD Logistics was founded with the formation of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jd-com-inc-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:446:1" rel="noopener">JD.com Inc (ADR) (JD US)</a>’s in-house logistics department in 2007. JD Group is the controlling shareholder with a 79.12% stake. JD Logistics has won approval for an HKEx IPO to raise $3-4 billion, according to press reports. </p><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/jd-logistics-ipo-initiation-the-flow-of-things" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:48279" rel="noopener">JD Logistics IPO Initiation: The Flow of Things</a>, we stated that JD Logistics is an indirect play on the shift of some customer behaviour permanently to online shopping, particularly in fast-moving consumer goods. We concluded that JD Logistics fundamentals are attractive and it remains well-placed to address consumers demand for faster and more flexible supply chain logistics services. </p><p>In this note, we look at the PHIP which discloses the 2020 results and recent developments. The results underscore the positives which are strong growth, rising margin and cash generation. However, the outlook is mixed as JD Logistics cautions that it will pursue market share gains at the cost of profitability over the medium term. </p><div class="content-highlight"><p>The Chinese logistics market is highly price-competitive, and scale is crucial to sustained profitable growth. In a consolidating market, the eventual winners will be companies that can invest in infrastructure and capacity to gain market share and economies of scale benefits. We think that JD Logistics has the right ingredients to ride out the industry’s current price-competitive dynamics and deliver good shareholder returns over the medium term. </p></div>

JD Logistics (JDL HK) is the largest player in China’s integrated supply chain logistics services market, with a 2.7% revenue market share in 2020, according to CIC. JD Logistics was founded with the formation of JD.com Inc (ADR) (JD US)’s in-house logistics department in 2007. JD Group is the controlling shareholder with a 79.12% stake. JD Logistics has won approval for an HKEx IPO to raise $3-4 billion, according to press reports. In JD Logistics IPO Initiation: The Flow of Things, we stated that JD Logistics is an indirect play on the shift of some customer behaviour permanently to online shopping, particularly in fast-moving consumer goods. We concluded that JD Logistics fundamentals are attractive and it remains well-placed to address consumers demand for faster and more flexible supply chain logistics services. In this note, we look at the PHIP which discloses the 2020 results and recent developments. The results underscore the positives which are strong growth, rising margin and cash generation. However, the outlook is mixed as JD Logistics cautions that it will pursue market share gains at the cost of profitability over the medium term. The Chinese logistics market is highly price-competitive, and scale is crucial to sustained profitable growth. In a consolidating market, the eventual winners will be companies that can invest in infrastructure and capacity to gain market share and economies of scale benefits. We think that JD Logistics has the right ingredients to ride out the industry’s current price-competitive dynamics and deliver good shareholder returns over the medium term. 

JD Logistics IPO: Prioritizing Market Share Gains over Margins

<div><p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jd-logistics" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31500:1" rel="noopener">JD Logistics (JDL HK)</a> is looking to raise US$4bn in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO. </p></div><div>
<p>JD Logistics (JDL) was the leading supply chain solutions and logistics services provider in China in terms of revenue in 2018 and 2019. The company offers a full spectrum of supply chain solutions and logistics services ranging from warehousing to distribution, spanning across manufacturing to end-customers, covering regular and specialized items. </p>
<p>In this note, we will share our forecast and assumptions as well as thoughts on where JDL should trade.</p>
<p>We had previously covered the IPO in:</p>
<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/jd-logistics-pre-ipo-peer-comparison-shielded-from-price-war" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:50575" rel="noopener">JD Logistics (京东物流) Pre-IPO - Peer Comparison - Shielded from Price War</a> </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/jd-logistics-pre-ipo-tethered-to-jd-group-and-looking-beyond" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:48396" rel="noopener">JD Logistics (京东物流) Pre-IPO - Tethered to JD Group and Looking Beyond</a> </li>
</ul>
</div>

JD Logistics (JDL HK) is looking to raise US$4bn in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO. 
JD Logistics (JDL) was the leading supply chain solutions and logistics services provider in China in terms of revenue in 2018 and 2019. The company offers a full spectrum of supply chain solutions and logistics services ranging from warehousing to distribution, spanning across manufacturing to end-customers, covering regular and specialized items. 
In this note, we will share our forecast and assumptions as well as thoughts on where JDL should trade.
We had previously covered the IPO in:


JD Logistics (京东物流) Pre-IPO - Peer Comparison - Shielded from Price War 

JD Logistics (京东物流) Pre-IPO - Tethered to JD Group and Looking Beyond 



JD Logistics (京东物流) Pre-IPO - Thoughts on Valuation

China

YTO Express Group Co., Ltd. provides global express services. The Company also provides general cargo warehousing, domestic air transport agency, car rental, supply chain management, and other related services throughout China..

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YTO Express (600233 CH)

JD Logistics IPO: Financial Forecasts and Initial Thoughts on Rumoured US$40.0bn Valuation

JDL’s higher revenue growth, market share and its improving margins are already priced into the rumoured US$40.0bn valuation and it is unlikely...

Shifara Samsudeen, FCMA, CGMA

JD Logistics IPO: Valuation and Forecast Update

JD Logistics is set to launch its IPO to raise $3-4 bn in May. The rumoured $40 bn valuation is fair, particularly in the context of its...

Arun George

JD Logistics (京东物流) Pre-IPO - PHIP Updates and Fine-Tuning Valuation

JD Logistics is looking to raise US$4bn in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO. JD Logistics (JDL) was the leading supply chain solutions and logistics...

Zhen Zhou, Toh

JD Logistics (京东物流) Pre-IPO - Thoughts on Valuation

JD Logistics (JDL HK) is looking to raise US$4bn in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO. JD Logistics (JDL) was the leading supply chain solutions and...

Zhen Zhou, Toh

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

JD Logistics IPO: Financial Forecasts and Initial Thoughts on Rumoured US$40.0bn Valuation

JDL’s higher revenue growth, market share and its improving margins are already priced into the rumoured US$40.0bn valuation and it is unlikely...

Shifara Samsudeen, FCMA, CGMA

JD Logistics IPO: Valuation and Forecast Update

JD Logistics is set to launch its IPO to raise $3-4 bn in May. The rumoured $40 bn valuation is fair, particularly in the context of its...

Arun George

JD Logistics (京东物流) Pre-IPO - PHIP Updates and Fine-Tuning Valuation

JD Logistics is looking to raise US$4bn in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO. JD Logistics (JDL) was the leading supply chain solutions and logistics...

Zhen Zhou, Toh

JD Logistics IPO: Prioritizing Market Share Gains over Margins

JD Logistics has won approval for an HKEx IPO to raise $3-4 bn. JD Logistics has the right ingredients to ride out the industry’s price-competitive...

Arun George

JD Logistics (京东物流) Pre-IPO - Thoughts on Valuation

JD Logistics (JDL HK) is looking to raise US$4bn in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO. JD Logistics (JDL) was the leading supply chain solutions and...

Zhen Zhou, Toh