China and US Equity Analyst

Roger Xie

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yum-china-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23677:1" rel="noopener">Yum China Holdings, Inc (YUMC US)</a> reported below-expectation 4Q21 earnings. Same store sale growth was down 11% year-over-year due to recent resurging of COVID cases in several regions of China.</li>
<li>Yum China has leveraged its digital orders and delivery service to alleviate the impacts. Based on its operation in 1Q20, we believe Yum China could recover quickly from current outbreak.</li>
<li>We think risk/reward is more compelling to own <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yum-china-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23677:1" rel="noopener">Yum China Holdings, Inc (YUMC US)</a> as it has resilient business model and proven records to navigate through pandemic. </li>
</ul>



Yum China Holdings, Inc (YUMC US) reported below-expectation 4Q21 earnings. Same store sale growth was down 11% year-over-year due to recent resurging of COVID cases in several regions of China.
Yum China has leveraged its digital orders and delivery service to alleviate the impacts. Based on its operation in 1Q20, we believe Yum China could recover quickly from current outbreak.
We think risk/reward is more compelling to own Yum China Holdings, Inc (YUMC US) as it has resilient business model and proven records to navigate through pandemic. 


Yum China (YUMC.US/​9987.HK): Zero-COVID Policy Weighted on Earnings

<ul>
<li>The latest wave of COVID-19 infections cast a shadow on store traffic recovery for transportation hubs. Looking forward, there will likely more tightening preventive measurement into Chinese New Year.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yum-china-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23677:1" rel="noopener">Yum China Holdings, Inc (YUMC US)</a> has corrected 30% from its high since July due to the resurge of COVID cases in several cities in China 2nd half of year. </li>
<li>We think risk/reward is more compelling to own <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yum-china-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23677:1" rel="noopener">Yum China Holdings, Inc (YUMC US)</a> as it has resilient business model and proven records to navigate through pandemic. </li>
</ul>


The latest wave of COVID-19 infections cast a shadow on store traffic recovery for transportation hubs. Looking forward, there will likely more tightening preventive measurement into Chinese New Year.

Yum China Holdings, Inc (YUMC US) has corrected 30% from its high since July due to the resurge of COVID cases in several cities in China 2nd half of year. 
We think risk/reward is more compelling to own Yum China Holdings, Inc (YUMC US) as it has resilient business model and proven records to navigate through pandemic. 


Yum China (YUMC.US/9987.HK): Resilient Business Model in the Face of Rising COVID Cases

Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas, CrossASEAN Research

Henry Soediarko

Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yihai-int-l-holding-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22803:1" rel="noopener">Yihai Int’L Holding (1579 HK)</a> was trading at par with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/haidilao-international-holding-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27044:1" rel="noopener">Haidilao (6862 HK)</a> although the former has previously been the market’s darling due to its less capital intensive and higher-margin business. But the fall during COVID was worse for Yihai compared to Haidialo as investors rushed to cash out their unrealized profit, ignoring the fact that Yihai’s previously smaller business in providing ready-to-eat food products which is essentially what the market wanted at that time, has grown bigger, and has become the differentiator during the difficult period hence maintaining respectable earnings multiples compared to Haidilao whose earnings multiple has gone through to the roof. Only recently, post the vaccine discovery, Haidilao’s earnings multiple normalized but it is still trading at almost twice as much of Yihai (92 to 50).
On a YTD basis, however, both share prices have been heavily correlated although 1) Haidilao’s revenue growth slowed considerably, 2) Yihai’s diversification away from being Haidilao’s supplier have shown result and 3) the earnings multiples differences are still persistent although it has narrowed. This begs to question that shouldn’t Yihai’s share price trading higher than Haidilao?
Yihai's share price is currently highly correlated to Haidilao although its business has become less and less correlated to the former and has pivoted away from providing condiments to Haidilao to manufacture ready-to-eat food products hence the business nature is more similar to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nissin-foods-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26062:1" rel="noopener">Nissin Foods (1475 HK)</a> although Yihai's share price is still massively underperforming Nissin Food Holdings'.
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/237/131/original/image_48603681281635075064982.png?1635075064" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="237131"></figure>
<div class="content-remarks">
source: Reuters
</div>

Yihai Int’L Holding (1579 HK) was trading at par with Haidilao (6862 HK) although the former has previously been the market’s darling due to its less capital intensive and higher-margin business. But the fall during COVID was worse for Yihai compared to Haidialo as investors rushed to cash out their unrealized profit, ignoring the fact that Yihai’s previously smaller business in providing ready-to-eat food products which is essentially what the market wanted at that time, has grown bigger, and has become the differentiator during the difficult period hence maintaining respectable earnings multiples compared to Haidilao whose earnings multiple has gone through to the roof. Only recently, post the vaccine discovery, Haidilao’s earnings multiple normalized but it is still trading at almost twice as much of Yihai (92 to 50).
On a YTD basis, however, both share prices have been heavily correlated although 1) Haidilao’s revenue growth slowed considerably, 2) Yihai’s diversification away from being Haidilao’s supplier have shown result and 3) the earnings multiples differences are still persistent although it has narrowed. This begs to question that shouldn’t Yihai’s share price trading higher than Haidilao?
Yihai's share price is currently highly correlated to Haidilao although its business has become less and less correlated to the former and has pivoted away from providing condiments to Haidilao to manufacture ready-to-eat food products hence the business nature is more similar to Nissin Foods (1475 HK) although Yihai's share price is still massively underperforming Nissin Food Holdings'.


source: Reuters


Yihai International (1579): Diversified Away from Haidilao

Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Capital Markets

Tam Jai International / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Although the recent media reports suggested overwhelming interest from both retail and institutional investors, the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tam-jai-international-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34227:1" rel="noopener">Tam Jai International (2271 HK)</a> IPO subscription status was not all that great with subscription rates of 29.6x and 3.9x for the Hong Kong offer and international offer respectively.</li>
<li>Consequently, the IPO was priced at the low end of the offer range at HK$ 3.33 per share, which implies a market cap and EV of HK$ 4.5bn and HK$ 3.1bn respectively.</li>
<li>Nevertheless, we remain unruffled by the surprisingly low IPO subscriptions as 66% of the Hong Kong IPO during the last three months made listing gains with less than 5.0x subscriptions (international offer).</li>
</ul>


Although the recent media reports suggested overwhelming interest from both retail and institutional investors, the Tam Jai International (2271 HK) IPO subscription status was not all that great with subscription rates of 29.6x and 3.9x for the Hong Kong offer and international offer respectively.
Consequently, the IPO was priced at the low end of the offer range at HK$ 3.33 per share, which implies a market cap and EV of HK$ 4.5bn and HK$ 3.1bn respectively.
Nevertheless, we remain unruffled by the surprisingly low IPO subscriptions as 66% of the Hong Kong IPO during the last three months made listing gains with less than 5.0x subscriptions (international offer).


<ul>
<li>Hong Kong based rice noodles restaurant chain, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tam-jai-international-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34227:1" rel="noopener">Tam Jai International (TJI HK)</a> announced the price range to its IPO at HK$ 3.33-4.17 per share, which implies a market cap and EV range of HK$ 4.5-5.6bn and HK$ 3.1-3.9bn respectively.</li>
<li>Tam Jai International will raise HK$ 1.1-1.4bn (US$ 145-182m) via issuing 335m new shares. The parent company, Toridoll has also granted underwriters the right to sell up to an additional 50.2m shares as a part of an overallotment option.</li>
<li>The application period ends on Tuesday (28th September 2021) and the shares are expected to start trading on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange from 7th October 2021.</li>
</ul>


Hong Kong based rice noodles restaurant chain, Tam Jai International (TJI HK) announced the price range to its IPO at HK$ 3.33-4.17 per share, which implies a market cap and EV range of HK$ 4.5-5.6bn and HK$ 3.1-3.9bn respectively.
Tam Jai International will raise HK$ 1.1-1.4bn (US$ 145-182m) via issuing 335m new shares. The parent company, Toridoll has also granted underwriters the right to sell up to an additional 50.2m shares as a part of an overallotment option.
The application period ends on Tuesday (28th September 2021) and the shares are expected to start trading on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange from 7th October 2021.


Tam Jai International IPO Valuation: Cheaper Than Noodles

China

Yum China Holdings, Inc. operates chain restaurants. The Company offers pizza, entrees, pasta, rice dishes, appetizers, soups, vegetables, beverages, and desserts. Yum China Holding conducts its business worldwide.

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Yum China Holdings (9987 HK)

Yum China (YUMC.US/9987.HK): Zero-COVID Policy Weighted on Earnings

Yum China reported disappointing 4Q21 earnings due to resurging of COVID cases in China. But we think risk/reward is more compelling as Yum China...

Roger Xie

Yum China (YUMC.US/9987.HK): Resilient Business Model in the Face of Rising COVID Cases

We think any share price weakness creates a good opportunity to accumulate Yum China. The risk/reward is more compelling given it has resilient...

Roger Xie

Yihai International (1579): Diversified Away from Haidilao

Mispriced Yihai Intl - share price highly correlated with Haidilao although it has diversified away by growing its ready-to-eat food business that...

Henry Soediarko

Tam Jai International IPO Valuation

Tam Jai IPO seems to be priced at a steep discount to peers, suggesting limited downside risk to Tam Jai’s IPO price. Therefore, we remain...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Tam Jai International IPO Valuation: Cheaper Than Noodles

Hong Kong based rice noodles restaurant chain, Tam Jai announced the price range to its IPO at HK$ 3.33-4.17 per share, which implies a market cap...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Yum China (YUMC.US/​9987.HK): Zero-COVID Policy Weighted on Earnings

Yum China reported disappointing 4Q21 earnings due to resurging of COVID cases in China. But we think risk/reward is more compelling as Yum China...

Roger Xie

Yum China (YUMC.US/9987.HK): Resilient Business Model in the Face of Rising COVID Cases

We think any share price weakness creates a good opportunity to accumulate Yum China. The risk/reward is more compelling given it has resilient...

Roger Xie

Yihai International (1579): Diversified Away from Haidilao

Mispriced Yihai Intl - share price highly correlated with Haidilao although it has diversified away by growing its ready-to-eat food business that...

Henry Soediarko

Tam Jai International IPO Valuation

Tam Jai IPO seems to be priced at a steep discount to peers, suggesting limited downside risk to Tam Jai’s IPO price. Therefore, we remain...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Tam Jai International IPO Valuation: Cheaper Than Noodles

Hong Kong based rice noodles restaurant chain, Tam Jai announced the price range to its IPO at HK$ 3.33-4.17 per share, which implies a market cap...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Yum China (YUMC.US/9987.HK): Zero-COVID Policy Weighted on Earnings