IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/baidu-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:179:1" rel="noopener">Baidu (BIDU US)</a> launched a $3 billion secondary listing in Hong Kong last Thursday evening. Bookbuilding is scheduled to run until the pricing on 17 March. The secondary listing has received good early demand with the books covered on the first day, according to press reports. The H-shares will begin trading on 23 March. In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/baidu-secondary-listing-searching-for-the-next-big-thing" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:49043" rel="noopener">Baidu Secondary Listing: Searching for the Next Big Thing</a>, we outlined our views on Baidu’ fundamentals and valuation. Baidu is making great strides in expanding its total addressable market (TAM) through ongoing investments. In combination with the potential valuation upside to the last close price (based on SoTP), we concluded that the equity story is attractive. <div class="content-highlight">In this note, we will look at Baidu’s potential HK-ADS premium/(discount). Baidu will price its H-shares at a discount to its ADSs to entice investors to participate in the secondary listing. However, market conditions remain volatile and there remains a possibility of a renewed global equity sell-off. Consequently, Baidu will likely price its H-shares at a wider discount than the median HK-ADS discount of previous secondary listings. Overall, Baidu pricing its H-shares at a discount range of 3% to 4% to its ADSs will be reasonable.</div>

Baidu (BIDU US) launched a $3 billion secondary listing in Hong Kong last Thursday evening. Bookbuilding is scheduled to run until the pricing on 17 March. The secondary listing has received good early demand with the books covered on the first day, according to press reports. The H-shares will begin trading on 23 March. In Baidu Secondary Listing: Searching for the Next Big Thing, we outlined our views on Baidu’ fundamentals and valuation. Baidu is making great strides in expanding its total addressable market (TAM) through ongoing investments. In combination with the potential valuation upside to the last close price (based on SoTP), we concluded that the equity story is attractive. In this note, we will look at Baidu’s potential HK-ADS premium/(discount). Baidu will price its H-shares at a discount to its ADSs to entice investors to participate in the secondary listing. However, market conditions remain volatile and there remains a possibility of a renewed global equity sell-off. Consequently, Baidu will likely price its H-shares at a wider discount than the median HK-ADS discount of previous secondary listings. Overall, Baidu pricing its H-shares at a discount range of 3% to 4% to its ADSs will be reasonable.

Baidu Secondary Listing: HK-ADS Premium/​(Discount) Views

Autohome Inc (Adr) / Equity Capital Markets

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/autohome-inc-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20234:1" rel="noopener">Autohome Inc (Adr) (ATHM US)</a> has launched a $1 billion secondary listing in Hong Kong. The primary/secondary spilt of the offer is 66.7%/33.3%. The selling shareholder is Yun Chen which is a non-wholly-owned subsidiary of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ping-an-insurance-group-co-of-china" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24682:1" rel="noopener">Ping An Insurance Group Co Of China (601318 CH)</a>.In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/autohome-secondary-listing-motoring-online" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:48751" rel="noopener">Autohome Secondary Listing: Motoring Online</a> outlined our views on Autohome’ fundamentals and valuation. The H shares will be priced on 9 March (Tuesday) and are scheduled for listing on 15 March.  <div class="content-highlight">In this note, we will look at Autohome’s potential HK-ADS premium/(discount). Autohome will price its H-shares at a discount to its ADSs to entice investors to participate in the secondary listing. Overall, we think that Autohome pricing its H-shares around a 2% discount to its ADSs will be reasonable.</div>

Autohome Inc (Adr) (ATHM US) has launched a $1 billion secondary listing in Hong Kong. The primary/secondary spilt of the offer is 66.7%/33.3%. The selling shareholder is Yun Chen which is a non-wholly-owned subsidiary of Ping An Insurance Group Co Of China (601318 CH).In Autohome Secondary Listing: Motoring Online outlined our views on Autohome’ fundamentals and valuation. The H shares will be priced on 9 March (Tuesday) and are scheduled for listing on 15 March.  In this note, we will look at Autohome’s potential HK-ADS premium/(discount). Autohome will price its H-shares at a discount to its ADSs to entice investors to participate in the secondary listing. Overall, we think that Autohome pricing its H-shares around a 2% discount to its ADSs will be reasonable.

Autohome Secondary Listing: HK-ADS Premium/(Discount) Views

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Event-Driven

On 22 December 2020 post market close, Hang Seng Indexes (HSIL) released the consultation paper on the "Proposal to enhance the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">Hong Kong Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX)</a> as regards continuing to serve as the most representative and important benchmark of the Hong Kong stock market". Market participants had until 24 January to submit their views to HSIL.HSIL are scheduled to announce the changes to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">Hong Kong Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX)</a> as a part of the March review on 26 February. There is a high probability that the conclusions of the market consultation will be announced on the same day.Given some large new listings since then and the price movements on the stocks, we refresh our list of potential inclusions and exclusions assuming that HSIL go up to 65 names or 80 names.In both cases, the turnover is very high in percentage terms and in dollar terms. HSIL will need to implement the changes over 1 year.We continue to believe that the market will probably be fine with increasing the number of constituents to 65, but will likely balk at going up to 80 in one shot.Financials would see the largest decrease in weight, offset by gains in Information Technology, Consumer Discretionary, Properties, Healthcare, Consumer Staples and Utilities.

On 22 December 2020 post market close, Hang Seng Indexes (HSIL) released the consultation paper on the "Proposal to enhance the Hong Kong Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX) as regards continuing to serve as the most representative and important benchmark of the Hong Kong stock market". Market participants had until 24 January to submit their views to HSIL.HSIL are scheduled to announce the changes to the Hong Kong Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX) as a part of the March review on 26 February. There is a high probability that the conclusions of the market consultation will be announced on the same day.Given some large new listings since then and the price movements on the stocks, we refresh our list of potential inclusions and exclusions assuming that HSIL go up to 65 names or 80 names.In both cases, the turnover is very high in percentage terms and in dollar terms. HSIL will need to implement the changes over 1 year.We continue to believe that the market will probably be fine with increasing the number of constituents to 65, but will likely balk at going up to 80 in one shot.Financials would see the largest decrease in weight, offset by gains in Information Technology, Consumer Discretionary, Properties, Healthcare, Consumer Staples and Utilities.

HSI Market Consultation - Name Changes as We Await the Conclusions

HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

The recent rise in local COVID-19 cases in China has made domestic air travel market more challenging in the near term, and this has already reflected on slowing traffic in Dec 2020. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-southern-airlines-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1078:1" rel="noopener">China Southern Airlines (1055 HK)</a> has the best performance in Dec and FY20 but we see headwinds given its significant domestic exposure. The government has advised minimising cross-province travel in the Spring Chinese New Year Travel Peak Season and many schools are suggesting the same.We think there are two trades to capture such trend. One, "Long <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/air-china-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8239:1" rel="noopener">Air China Ltd (H) (753 HK)</a>, short <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-southern-airlines-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1078:1" rel="noopener">China Southern Airlines (1055 HK)</a>" as positive expectations on CSA's domestic exposure provides room for disappointment. Two, go long on domestic consumption names as savings in transportation and lodging expenses may be re-directed to F&amp;B and consumer discretionary. These include <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/haidilao-international-holding-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27044:1" rel="noopener">Haidilao (6862 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jiumaojiu-international-holdings-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28293:1" rel="noopener">Jiumaojiu (9922 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yum-china-holdings-inc-0533692c-6dae-4014-baa1-ed0b050638f2" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29259:1" rel="noopener">Yum China Holdings Inc (9987 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/anta-sports-products-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10261:1" rel="noopener">Anta Sports Products (2020 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/li-ning-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6047:1" rel="noopener">Li Ning Co Ltd (2331 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/topsports-international" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28153:1" rel="noopener">Topsports International (6110 HK)</a>. Meanwhile, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/meituan-dianping" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26970:1" rel="noopener">Meituan (3690 HK)</a> may benefit on both the revenue and cost sides.

The recent rise in local COVID-19 cases in China has made domestic air travel market more challenging in the near term, and this has already reflected on slowing traffic in Dec 2020. China Southern Airlines (1055 HK) has the best performance in Dec and FY20 but we see headwinds given its significant domestic exposure. The government has advised minimising cross-province travel in the Spring Chinese New Year Travel Peak Season and many schools are suggesting the same.We think there are two trades to capture such trend. One, "Long Air China Ltd (H) (753 HK), short China Southern Airlines (1055 HK)" as positive expectations on CSA's domestic exposure provides room for disappointment. Two, go long on domestic consumption names as savings in transportation and lodging expenses may be re-directed to F&amp;B and consumer discretionary. These include Haidilao (6862 HK), Jiumaojiu (9922 HK), Yum China Holdings Inc (9987 HK), Anta Sports Products (2020 HK), Li Ning Co Ltd (2331 HK) and Topsports International (6110 HK). Meanwhile, Meituan (3690 HK) may benefit on both the revenue and cost sides. 

Chinese Airlines: Domestic Market Gets a Little Challenging in the Near Term, How to Play It?

Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

As the US-listed Chinese tech firms such as <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bilibili-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26793:1" rel="noopener">Bilibili Inc (BILI US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-music-entertainment" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27255:1" rel="noopener">Tencent Music (TME US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vipshop-holdings-ltd-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1088:1" rel="noopener">Vipshop Holdings (VIPS US)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/joyy-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:285:1" rel="noopener">JOYY (YY US)</a> rush for secondary listings on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange amidst the uncertainty surrounding the US policy framework, in this insight, we analyse the ADR/HKEX discount/premium behaviour of the 10 most recent secondary listings on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange.

As the US-listed Chinese tech firms such as Bilibili Inc (BILI US), Tencent Music (TME US), Vipshop Holdings (VIPS US), and JOYY (YY US) rush for secondary listings on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange amidst the uncertainty surrounding the US policy framework, in this insight, we analyse the ADR/HKEX discount/premium behaviour of the 10 most recent secondary listings on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange.

An Analysis of ADR/HKEX Discount Behavior As The US Listed Chinese Tech Rush To Hong Kong

China

Yum China Holdings, Inc. operates chain restaurants. The Company offers pizza, entrees, pasta, rice dishes, appetizers, soups, vegetables, beverages, and desserts. Yum China Holding conducts its business worldwide.

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Yum China Holdings (9987 HK)

Baidu Secondary Listing: HK-ADS Premium/(Discount) Views

Baidu has launched a $3 bn secondary listing in Hong Kong. Due to choppy market conditions, Baidu pricing its H-shares at a discount range of 3% to...

Arun George

Autohome Secondary Listing: HK-ADS Premium/(Discount) Views

Autohome will price its H-shares at a discount to its ADSs to entice investors to participate in the secondary listing. We think that a 2% discount...

Arun George

HSI Market Consultation - Name Changes as We Await the Conclusions

The conclusions of the HSI market consultation could be announced on 26 Feb along with the March review. Given recent large listings and price...

Brian Freitas

Chinese Airlines: Domestic Market Gets a Little Challenging in the Near Term, How to Play It?

Slowed domestic air traffic in Dec and rise in local COVID-19 cases mean more challenging environment in the next two months. "Long Air China,...

Osbert Tang, CFA

An Analysis of ADR/HKEX Discount Behavior As The US Listed Chinese Tech Rush To Hong Kong

As the US-listed Chinese tech firms rush for secondary listings on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, we analyse the ADR/HKEX discount behaviour of the...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Baidu Secondary Listing: HK-ADS Premium/​(Discount) Views

Baidu has launched a $3 bn secondary listing in Hong Kong. Due to choppy market conditions, Baidu pricing its H-shares at a discount range of 3% to...

Arun George

Autohome Secondary Listing: HK-ADS Premium/(Discount) Views

Autohome will price its H-shares at a discount to its ADSs to entice investors to participate in the secondary listing. We think that a 2% discount...

Arun George

HSI Market Consultation - Name Changes as We Await the Conclusions

The conclusions of the HSI market consultation could be announced on 26 Feb along with the March review. Given recent large listings and price...

Brian Freitas

Chinese Airlines: Domestic Market Gets a Little Challenging in the Near Term, How to Play It?

Slowed domestic air traffic in Dec and rise in local COVID-19 cases mean more challenging environment in the next two months. "Long Air China,...

Osbert Tang, CFA

An Analysis of ADR/HKEX Discount Behavior As The US Listed Chinese Tech Rush To Hong Kong

As the US-listed Chinese tech firms rush for secondary listings on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, we analyse the ADR/HKEX discount behaviour of the...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Baidu Secondary Listing: HK-ADS Premium/(Discount) Views