ASEAN Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Angus Mackintosh

ASEAN Insight Provider

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Equity Bottom-Up

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<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/adi-sarana-armada-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16947:1" rel="noopener">Adi Sarana Armada (ASSA IJ)</a> released a stellar set of 1Q2021 results, with revenue growth of +37.3% YoY, and net profit growth of +27.1% YoY, which continued to reflect better than expected growth in its end-to-end logistics business, and notably Anteraja, its last-mile delivery service.</p>
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<p>The company's three pillars including transport, car auction, and end-to-end logistics, all registered strong growth. The company's last-mile express delivery service Anteraja saw especially strong growth driven by the e-commerce ecosystem as it is providing deliveries for most of the major players. </p>
<p>Anteraja's continues to expand its business, with daily parcel deliveries hitting 500,000 in 1Q2021 and targets 700,000-750,000 parcels a day by the end of the year.</p>
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<section class="figure"><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/adi-sarana-armada-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16947:1" rel="noopener">Adi Sarana Armada (ASSA IJ)</a>'s auction business also recorded positive revenue growth of +3.8%  in 1Q2021 but has seen a recent pick up in growth. </section>
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<section class="figure"><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/adi-sarana-armada-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16947:1" rel="noopener"></a>The company continues to develop its app-based businesses such as Share Car and used car marketplace, Caroline.</section>
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<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/adi-sarana-armada-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16947:1" rel="noopener">Adi Sarana Armada (ASSA IJ)</a> targets revenue growth 0f +20%-25% for 2021 mainly driven by the growth from end-to-end logistics and specifically Anteraja, together with e-commerce sharing warehouse Titipaja. </p>
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<p>The company also recently had its rights issue of zero-coupon convertible bonds approved, which will raise a total of IDR720bn. This will help the company reduce the debt used to expand its logistics businesses over the past year.</p>
<p>We continue to believe in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/adi-sarana-armada-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16947:1" rel="noopener">Adi Sarana Armada (ASSA IJ)</a> digital transformation story, with ongoing synergies between the three pillars of its business.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/adi-sarana-armada-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16947:1" rel="noopener">Adi Sarana Armada (ASSA IJ)</a> trades on 10.9x FY21E EV/EBITDA and 8.7x FY22E EV/EBITDA and an FY22E PER of 30x but we expect continuing momentum behind the growth and rising profitability story, as Anteraja gains scale and grows its revenues.</p>
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Adi Sarana Armada (ASSA IJ) released a stellar set of 1Q2021 results, with revenue growth of +37.3% YoY, and net profit growth of +27.1% YoY, which continued to reflect better than expected growth in its end-to-end logistics business, and notably Anteraja, its last-mile delivery service.

The company's three pillars including transport, car auction, and end-to-end logistics, all registered strong growth. The company's last-mile express delivery service Anteraja saw especially strong growth driven by the e-commerce ecosystem as it is providing deliveries for most of the major players. 
Anteraja's continues to expand its business, with daily parcel deliveries hitting 500,000 in 1Q2021 and targets 700,000-750,000 parcels a day by the end of the year.

Adi Sarana Armada (ASSA IJ)'s auction business also recorded positive revenue growth of +3.8%  in 1Q2021 but has seen a recent pick up in growth. 



The company continues to develop its app-based businesses such as Share Car and used car marketplace, Caroline.





Adi Sarana Armada (ASSA IJ) targets revenue growth 0f +20%-25% for 2021 mainly driven by the growth from end-to-end logistics and specifically Anteraja, together with e-commerce sharing warehouse Titipaja. 

The company also recently had its rights issue of zero-coupon convertible bonds approved, which will raise a total of IDR720bn. This will help the company reduce the debt used to expand its logistics businesses over the past year.
We continue to believe in the Adi Sarana Armada (ASSA IJ) digital transformation story, with ongoing synergies between the three pillars of its business.
Adi Sarana Armada (ASSA IJ) trades on 10.9x FY21E EV/EBITDA and 8.7x FY22E EV/EBITDA and an FY22E PER of 30x but we expect continuing momentum behind the growth and rising profitability story, as Anteraja gains scale and grows its revenues.






Adi Sarana Armada (ASSA IJ) - End-To End Aspirations on Track

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

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<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/xpeng-motors" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29217:1" rel="noopener">Xpeng Motors (XPEV US)</a> raised around US$2bn via a listing in Hong Kong. In this note, we will talk about the trading dynamics and the updates since our last note, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/xpeng-motors-hk-listing-will-probably-be-hot-given-strong-momentum-but-past-deal-didn-t-do-well" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Xpeng Motors HK Listing - Will Probably Be Hot Given Strong Momentum but past Deal Didn’t Do Well.</a></p>
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<p>We have covered the IPO in:</p>
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<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/xpeng-motors-pre-ipo-lots-to-like-with-solid-backing-from-investors" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:42126" rel="noopener">Xpeng Motors (小鹏汽车) Pre-IPO - Lots to like with Solid Backing from Investors</a> </li>
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<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/xpeng-motors-visited-a-store-fairly-priced-but-with-recharging-problem" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:42283" rel="noopener">Xpeng Motors (小鹏汽车): Visited a Store, Fairly Priced, But with Recharging Problem</a> </li>
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/xpeng-motors-pre-ipo-car-comparison-and-p7-performance-test" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:42386" rel="noopener">Xpeng Motors (小鹏汽车) Pre-IPO - Car Comparison and P7 Performance Test</a></li>
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<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/xpeng-motors-pre-ipo-peer-comparison-and-valuation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:42389" rel="noopener">Xpeng Motors (小鹏汽车) Pre-IPO - Peer Comparison and Valuation</a> </li>
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<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/xpeng-ipo-riding-the-momentum" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:42503" rel="noopener">Xpeng Motors (小鹏汽车) IPO - Riding the Momentum</a> </li>
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<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/xpeng-motors-trading-nio-leading-the-charge" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:42616" rel="noopener">Xpeng Motors (小鹏汽车) Trading - NIO Leading the Charge</a> </li>
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<p>And the previous placement in:</p>
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<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/xpeng-motors-placement-level-the-playing-field" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Xpeng Motors (小鹏汽车) Placement - Level the Playing Field</a></li>
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Xpeng Motors (XPEV US) raised around US$2bn via a listing in Hong Kong. In this note, we will talk about the trading dynamics and the updates since our last note, Xpeng Motors HK Listing - Will Probably Be Hot Given Strong Momentum but past Deal Didn’t Do Well.


We have covered the IPO in:




Xpeng Motors (小鹏汽车) Pre-IPO - Lots to like with Solid Backing from Investors 

Xpeng Motors (小鹏汽车): Visited a Store, Fairly Priced, But with Recharging Problem 
Xpeng Motors (小鹏汽车) Pre-IPO - Car Comparison and P7 Performance Test

Xpeng Motors (小鹏汽车) Pre-IPO - Peer Comparison and Valuation 

Xpeng Motors (小鹏汽车) IPO - Riding the Momentum 

Xpeng Motors (小鹏汽车) Trading - NIO Leading the Charge 



And the previous placement in:



Xpeng Motors (小鹏汽车) Placement - Level the Playing Field



Xpeng Motors HK Trading - More Hot with Instis that Retail

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Hutchmed China Ltd / Equity Capital Markets

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<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hutchmed-china-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:133:1" rel="noopener">Hutchmed China Ltd (13 HK)</a> has launched a $603 million secondary listing on HKEx by offering 104.0 million ordinary shares at a maximum offer price of HK$45.00 per share. Bookbuilding is scheduled to run until the pricing on 23 June. The net proceeds will be used to fund the late-stage clinical programs (<em>savolitinib, surufatinib, fruquintinib</em>, HMPL-689 and HMPL-523), to support further proof-of-concept studies and strengthen commercialisation capabilities.</p>
<p>HutchMed has primary listings on Nasdaq and on UK AIM. The HKEx secondary listing will be supported by five cornerstone investors which will subscribe for HK$2,535 million ($325 million) of the offer shares (54.17% of the offer shares at the maximum offer price). The cornerstone investors are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/carlyle-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33402:1" rel="noopener">Carlyle Group Inc (CG US)</a>, CPP Investments, General Atlantic, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hbm-healthcare-investments-ag" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22373:1" rel="noopener">HBM Healthcare Investments AG (HBMN SW)</a> and CICC Capital.</p>
<p>HutchMed is a China-based, globally focused, biopharma company, active in discovery, development, manufacturing, and commercialisation. The investment case centres on the<br>success of its oncology/immunology platform, which has several near-term clinical and regulatory catalysts from the novel highly selective small molecule (tyrosine kinase inhibitor) pipeline. Notably, in-house discovered drugs, <em>Elunate (fruquintinib)</em> and <em>Sulanda (surufatinib)</em>, together with a likely approval for <em>savolitinib</em>, are transforming China prospects. <em>Elunate</em> is performing well in China, with NRDL inclusion boosting volumes. The first global launch is likely to be <em>surufatinib </em>with a US launch targeted for late 2021 or early 2022.</p>
</div><div><div class="content-highlight"><p>In this note, we will look at HutchMed’s potential HK-ADS premium/(discount). As per the norm, HutchMed will price its H-shares at a discount to its ADSs/UK shares to entice investors to participate in the secondary listing. HutchMed pricing its H-shares at a discount of 2-3% to its ADSs will be reasonable, in our view.</p></div></div>


Hutchmed China Ltd (13 HK) has launched a $603 million secondary listing on HKEx by offering 104.0 million ordinary shares at a maximum offer price of HK$45.00 per share. Bookbuilding is scheduled to run until the pricing on 23 June. The net proceeds will be used to fund the late-stage clinical programs (savolitinib, surufatinib, fruquintinib, HMPL-689 and HMPL-523), to support further proof-of-concept studies and strengthen commercialisation capabilities.
HutchMed has primary listings on Nasdaq and on UK AIM. The HKEx secondary listing will be supported by five cornerstone investors which will subscribe for HK$2,535 million ($325 million) of the offer shares (54.17% of the offer shares at the maximum offer price). The cornerstone investors are Carlyle Group Inc (CG US), CPP Investments, General Atlantic, HBM Healthcare Investments AG (HBMN SW) and CICC Capital.
HutchMed is a China-based, globally focused, biopharma company, active in discovery, development, manufacturing, and commercialisation. The investment case centres on the success of its oncology/immunology platform, which has several near-term clinical and regulatory catalysts from the novel highly selective small molecule (tyrosine kinase inhibitor) pipeline. Notably, in-house discovered drugs, Elunate (fruquintinib) and Sulanda (surufatinib), together with a likely approval for savolitinib, are transforming China prospects. Elunate is performing well in China, with NRDL inclusion boosting volumes. The first global launch is likely to be surufatinib with a US launch targeted for late 2021 or early 2022.
In this note, we will look at HutchMed’s potential HK-ADS premium/(discount). As per the norm, HutchMed will price its H-shares at a discount to its ADSs/UK shares to entice investors to participate in the secondary listing. HutchMed pricing its H-shares at a discount of 2-3% to its ADSs will be reasonable, in our view.

HutchMed Secondary Listing: HK-ADS Premium/​​​(Discount) Views

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Full Truck Alliance   / Equity Capital Markets

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<p><strong>Our base case valuation of Full Truck Alliance is implied market cap of $17.7 billion or $17.1 per share. Our valuation sensitivity suggests a range from $14.3 billion to $21.4 billion. Our base case valuation of $17.1 per share is close to the low end of the IPO range of $17 to $19 per share. Given the lack of upside, we would pass on this deal. </strong></p>
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<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/full-truck-alliance" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33429:1" rel="noopener">Full Truck Alliance (YMM US)</a> (FTA) is getting ready to complete its IPO in the coming days. The company is offering 82.5 million ADS at $17 to $19 per ADS. Each ADS represents 20 Class A ordinary shares. At the top end of the IPO price range, the company could raise as much as $1.57 billion. Fidelity and Invesco plan to buy a total of $600 million worth of ADS in the IPO (40% of the deal).</p>
<p>Full Truck Alliance also plans to raise an additional $200 million in private placements to Mubadala Investment Co and Ontario Teachers' Pension Plan Board. At the IPO price of $18 per share, the company would have an implied market cap of <a href="https://www.renaissancecapital.com/IPO-Center/News/82793/Chinese-freight-platform-Full-Truck-Alliance-sets-terms-for-%241.5-billion-US" target="_blank" rel="noopener">$19.7 billion</a> on a fully diluted shares basis. </p>


Our base case valuation of Full Truck Alliance is implied market cap of $17.7 billion or $17.1 per share. Our valuation sensitivity suggests a range from $14.3 billion to $21.4 billion. Our base case valuation of $17.1 per share is close to the low end of the IPO range of $17 to $19 per share. Given the lack of upside, we would pass on this deal. 

Full Truck Alliance (YMM US) (FTA) is getting ready to complete its IPO in the coming days. The company is offering 82.5 million ADS at $17 to $19 per ADS. Each ADS represents 20 Class A ordinary shares. At the top end of the IPO price range, the company could raise as much as $1.57 billion. Fidelity and Invesco plan to buy a total of $600 million worth of ADS in the IPO (40% of the deal).
Full Truck Alliance also plans to raise an additional $200 million in private placements to Mubadala Investment Co and Ontario Teachers' Pension Plan Board. At the IPO price of $18 per share, the company would have an implied market cap of $19.7 billion on a fully diluted shares basis. 

<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/full-truck-alliance" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33429:1" rel="noopener">Full Truck Alliance (YMM US)</a>, known as <em>Manbang</em> in China, is the world’s largest digital freight platform by gross transaction value (GTV) in 2020, according to CIC. FTA was formed in 2017 through the merger of <em>Yunmanman</em> and <em>Huochebang</em>, which were founded in 2013 and 2011, respectively. FTA is seeking to raise $1.5 billion through an NYSE listing, according to press reports. FTA is backed by SoftBank Vision Fund (22.2% of the outstanding shares), Sequoia Capital (7.2%), Hillhouse and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent (700 HK)</a>. </p><p>FTA joins peer <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/foru-worldwide-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33314:1" rel="noopener">ForU Worldwide (FOYO US)</a> which also recently filed for a $500 million Nasdaq IPO. Confusingly, ForU notes that it is the largest technology-driven road freight transportation platform in China as measured by revenue in 2020, according to CIC. However, comparing FTA and ForU based on reported revenue is an apples-to-oranges comparison due to differing revenue recognition policies. In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/foru-worldwide-ipo-initiation-not-foru" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:51888" rel="noopener">ForU Worldwide IPO Initiation: Not ForU</a>, we opined that ForU faces several challenges and the financials on a normalised basis appears to be middling at best.    </p><div class="content-highlight"><p>At first sight, FTA recent results look stunning due to fast-paced growth, improving margin and cash generation. However, a closer look, suggests that FTA has less than ideal disclosure, a regulatory overhang and potential corporate governance issues. In an environment where sentiment on high-growth stocks and in particular Chinese US tech listings is weak, IPO hopefuls should not provide ready ammunition to the bears. Consequently, we cannot recommend FTA wholeheartedly and inclined to watch this IPO unfold from the sidelines.   </p></div>

Full Truck Alliance (YMM US), known as Manbang in China, is the world’s largest digital freight platform by gross transaction value (GTV) in 2020, according to CIC. FTA was formed in 2017 through the merger of Yunmanman and Huochebang, which were founded in 2013 and 2011, respectively. FTA is seeking to raise $1.5 billion through an NYSE listing, according to press reports. FTA is backed by SoftBank Vision Fund (22.2% of the outstanding shares), Sequoia Capital (7.2%), Hillhouse and Tencent (700 HK). FTA joins peer ForU Worldwide (FOYO US) which also recently filed for a $500 million Nasdaq IPO. Confusingly, ForU notes that it is the largest technology-driven road freight transportation platform in China as measured by revenue in 2020, according to CIC. However, comparing FTA and ForU based on reported revenue is an apples-to-oranges comparison due to differing revenue recognition policies. In ForU Worldwide IPO Initiation: Not ForU, we opined that ForU faces several challenges and the financials on a normalised basis appears to be middling at best.    At first sight, FTA recent results look stunning due to fast-paced growth, improving margin and cash generation. However, a closer look, suggests that FTA has less than ideal disclosure, a regulatory overhang and potential corporate governance issues. In an environment where sentiment on high-growth stocks and in particular Chinese US tech listings is weak, IPO hopefuls should not provide ready ammunition to the bears. Consequently, we cannot recommend FTA wholeheartedly and inclined to watch this IPO unfold from the sidelines.   

Full Truck Alliance IPO Initiation: A Less than Perfect Delivery

China

ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. operates as an express delivery company. The Company provides express delivery service through their nationwide network, as well as other value-added logistics services. ZTO Express serves customers globally.

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ZTO Express Cayman (ZTO US)

Adi Sarana Armada (ASSA IJ) - End-To End Aspirations on Track

ASSA remains a high-growth Indonesian transport and logistics player, which is increasingly driven by the rapid growth of its last-mile delivery...

Angus Mackintosh

Xpeng Motors HK Trading - More Hot with Instis that Retail

Xpeng Motors (XPEV US) raised around US$2bn via a listing in Hong Kong. In this note, we will talk about the trading dynamics and the updates since...

Sumeet Singh

HutchMed Secondary Listing: HK-ADS Premium/(Discount) Views

HutchMed has launched a $603 million secondary listing on HKEx. In this note, we will look at HutchMed’s potential HK-ADS premium/(discount).

Arun George

Full Truck Alliance Valuation Analysis

Our base case valuation of Full Truck Alliance is implied market cap of $17.7 billion or $17.1 per share. Given the lack of upside relative to the...

Douglas Kim

Full Truck Alliance IPO Initiation: A Less than Perfect Delivery

FTA is seeking to raise $1.5 billion through an NYSE listing, according to press reports. We cannot recommend FTA wholeheartedly and inclined to...

Arun George

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

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Adi Sarana Armada (ASSA IJ) - End-To End Aspirations on Track

ASSA remains a high-growth Indonesian transport and logistics player, which is increasingly driven by the rapid growth of its last-mile delivery...

Angus Mackintosh

Xpeng Motors HK Trading - More Hot with Instis that Retail

Xpeng Motors (XPEV US) raised around US$2bn via a listing in Hong Kong. In this note, we will talk about the trading dynamics and the updates since...

Sumeet Singh

HutchMed Secondary Listing: HK-ADS Premium/​​​(Discount) Views

HutchMed has launched a $603 million secondary listing on HKEx. In this note, we will look at HutchMed’s potential HK-ADS premium/(discount).

Arun George

Full Truck Alliance Valuation Analysis

Our base case valuation of Full Truck Alliance is implied market cap of $17.7 billion or $17.1 per share. Given the lack of upside relative to the...

Douglas Kim

Full Truck Alliance IPO Initiation: A Less than Perfect Delivery

FTA is seeking to raise $1.5 billion through an NYSE listing, according to press reports. We cannot recommend FTA wholeheartedly and inclined to...

Arun George

HutchMed Secondary Listing: HK-ADS Premium/(Discount) Views