Australia

• Johns Lyng (JLG AU) has entered a scheme implementation deed with Pacific Equity Partners (PEP) at A$4.00, a 57.5% premium to the undisturbed price of A$2.54 (10 June).
• The offer is effectively an MBO as the CEO and key executives will rollover their shares. The offer requires regulatory (FIRB and US) and shareholder approvals. 
• The offer is arguably opportunistically timed to capitalise on the FY2025 guidance downgrade in February. However, it is reasonable, given the high uncertainty surrounding the timing of an earnings recovery. 

• A brief look at important company events and economic data releases next week

• Warriedar Resources Limited (ASX:WA8) is an emerging gold and antimony developer whose flagship Golden Range project hosts ~2.3moz in AuEq resources in the prolific gold-producing Murchison region of Western Australia.
• Since the acquisition of the project in CY23, WA8 has expanded the gold resource and delineated a globally significant antimony resource which is also contained in the core Ricciardo deposit.
• Whilst the gold resource alone could support a commercial development, the overlapping antimony resource not only increases the economic value, it adds a strategic value to the project given the supply shortages and trade restrictions affecting this commodity.

• Kinterra increased its New World Resources (NWC AU) offer to A$0.063, which will be increased to A$0.064 and declared unconditional if Kinterra acquires 30% of voting rights by 11 July.
• Central Asia Metals (CAML LN) has five business days to match Kinterra’s offer. While CAML today lowered its FY2025 production guidance, it retains the headroom to return with revised terms.
• Trump’s recent copper tariffs support the case for the ongoing bidding war. Crucially, none of the bidders has declared their offer best and final. 

• Extra Edition of the Broker Call Report

• A global perspective on what happened overnight

• A month ago, Integrated building services provider Johns Lyng (JLG AU) fielded a non-binding Offer, by way of a Scheme, from Aussie fund manager Pacific Equity Partners (PEP).
• JLG and PEP have now entered into a SID at A$4/share, a 77% premium to undisturbed. CEO Scott Didier, JLG’s largest shareholder with 17.64%, is supportive. 
• A shareholder vote is expected to take place in October, with the transaction potentially wrapping up in November. This may need more gruel.

• The cashflow from Vietnam solar shines brighter as the total operational solar capacity with Mobile World Group (MWG) reaches 3.4MW.
• The MWG contract is underpinned by a 14-year Power Purchase Agreements (PPA) to deliver power across multiple commercial rooftop solar sites in Vietnam.
• In addition to these sites, is the Company has a 3.0MW industrial project with Phong Phu Corporation.

• The current share price for Aurelia Metals represents “compelling value” according to new research by Shaw and Partners as the company transitions to a greater focus on copper

• As reported by Gaudenz Schneider , the 90-Day pause on country-specific reciprocal tariffs was set to expire on July 9, 2025 and Australia and its Minerals sector might suffer indirectly. 
• Australia has business with a number of Asian countries, especially China and Japan. Any shock to the growth of other economies in the region could affect the S&P/ASX 200 INDEX. 
• This insight will focus on the short-term tactical outlook and possible trend direction for the Australian index for the coming weeks. 

• The Arena REIT (ARF AU) vs. National Storage REIT (NSR AU) Price-Ratio has deviated more than two standard deviations from its one-year average, presenting a potential relative value opportunity.
• This relative value opportunity can be implemented as a long-short pair trade or as relative over-/underweights in a long only context.
• Why Read: Essential for quantitative traders seeking mean-reversion opportunities, with detailed execution framework, risk management protocols, and historical simulation showing the statistical basis for this relative value play.

• A global perspective on what happened overnight

• Beetaloo Energy Australia Limited (ASX:BTL) is a gas development company, with onshore Northern Territory (NT) gas exploration and development assets.
• BTL has the largest tenement position in the highly prospective Greater McArthur Basin, which includes the Beetaloo Sub-basin.
• The company has announced the successful completion of the stimulation phase of the Carpentaria-5H (C-5H) testing and evaluation campaign, with the outcomes in-line with the initial specifications.

Actinogen Medical announced on 30 June that it has recruited the 100th patient for its ongoing XanaMIA Phase IIb/III study assessing lead candidate Xanamem (emestedastat) in patients with biomarker-positive Alzheimer’s disease (AD). The company is on track to report a pre-planned interim efficacy (futility) analysis in early Q126, which, if successful, should strengthen confidence in the AD programme. After rolling forward our estimates, we obtain a total equity valuation of A$724.6m (versus A$673.8m previously).

• Wrkr Ltd (ASX:WRK) offers compliance solutions for Australian superannuation contributions and payroll including member onboarding, super payments, messaging and employee validation.
• WRK in conjunction with MUFG has been selected to deliver a comprehensive digital platform across clearing house, gateway and digital employer services to enhance AustralianSuper’s efficiency and compliance in superannuation administration.
• AustralianSuper has ~3.5m members, and we estimate half (~1.7m) are active.

• Extra Edition of the Broker Call Report

• A global perspective on what happened overnight

Actinogen Medical announced on 30 June that it has recruited the 100th patient for its ongoing XanaMIA Phase IIb/III study assessing lead candidate Xanamem (emestedastat) in patients with biomarker-positive Alzheimer’s disease (AD). The company is on track to report a pre-planned interim efficacy (futility) analysis on 24-week data in early Q126, which, if successful, should strengthen confidence in the AD programme. After rolling forward our estimates, we obtain a total equity valuation of A$724.6m (versus A$673.8m previously).

• Wrap of events affecting the market on Friday night and the weekend and a preview of the week ahead

• Following nearly a year of being in the negative, China’s steel mill margins have finally turned positive, primarily driven by a decline in coking coal prices.
• Iron ore prices have bounced 3% WoW, to 96 USD/ton, due to short-lived positive sentiment. We reiterate a short-term bounce to the 100 USD/ton level.  
• In the medium term, we anticipate iron ore prices declining to $85/ton by early next year, when Rio’s 120 million-ton Simandou project commences.

• Context: Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA AU) is approaching oversold territory, with limited upside potential. Quantitative analysis outlines key support and resistance levels with high reversal probabilities.
• Trade Idea: The proposed options strategy profits if the stock remains range-bound between ~172 and ~190 by 17 July expiry. The setup offers a ~1.0% maximum return within 10 days.
• Why Read: This Insight presents a timely, actionable trade idea with a well-defined risk/reward profile—ideal for investors seeking to monetize muted price action around a high-probability range.

• Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA AU)’s shares have surged >80% since November2023, outpacing its underlying profit growth and dividend yields. Passive‐index ETF reallocations are the primary driver of this rally.
• A Reuters poll forecasts the RBA will cut rates by 25 bps to 3.60% on July 8—with further cuts likely into year‐end. This will compress NIMs, a key earnings driver for CBA. 
• This insight marks the start of our coverage for CBA: the stock closed this week down (CC -1) reaching oversold levels, it can bounce but the rally potential appears limited.

• Context: This article provides an update on a previously identified pair trading opportunity between Perseus Mining (PRU AU) and Capricorn Metals (CMM AU), based on statistical mean reversion analysis.
• Key Insights: The trade has now reached its exit signal as the price ratio reverted to its one-standard deviation band, yielding a positive return.
• Why Read: For investors interested in quantitative trading strategies, this article demonstrates how statistical arbitrage can generate short-term alpha and highlights actionable similar opportunities in the current market.

• Context: The REA Group Ltd (REA AU) vs. News Corp (NWS AU) Price-Ratio has deviated more than two standard deviations from its one-year average, presenting a potential relative value opportunity. 
• Highlights: Statistical mean reversion suggests going long REA Group Ltd (REA AU) and short News (NWS AU). A target return is provided. News Corp is the majority owner of REA.
• Why Read: Essential for quantitative traders seeking mean-reversion opportunities, with detailed execution framework, risk management protocols, and historical simulation showing the statistical basis for this relative value play.

• Context: This article provides an update on the Insight  Long ANZ (ANZ AU), Short National Australia Bank (NAB AU): Banking on Statistical Arbitrage, published on 22 June 2025.
• Key Insights: The trade has hit its exit signal as the price ratio reverted to its one-standard deviation band, yielding a positive return.
• Why Read: For investors interested in quantitative trading strategies, this article demonstrates how statistical arbitrage can generate short-term alpha and highlights actionable similar opportunities in the current market.

• Suitors Central Asia Metals (CAML LN) and Kinterra Capital are locked at A$0.062/share bids apiece for copper play New World Resources (NWC AU).
• Kinterra has tapped the Takeovers Panel after NWC failed to terminate the CAML placement “despite the relevant condition for the termination of that agreement having been satisfied“.
• Kinterra’s application has merit. Expect the Panel to make orders preventing the placement. Kinterra currently holds 19.3% of shares out and CAML 12.08%. 

• Declining coking coal prices, operational issues, a credit rating downgrade, and Sev.en Global’s failed Offer, have resulted in met coal play Coronado (CRN AU)‘s shares trading around an all-time low. 
• Shares popped 14.8% today, and are now up ~48% from its all-time low a month ago.
• What gives? Coronado has already confirmed the potential sale of a minority interest in certain assets. But there is speculation a full Offer may be in the wings.

• Given the ACCC’s comprehensive list of concerns, as detailed in Silk Logistics (SLH AU): ACCC’s Statement Of Issues, this approval comes as a (pleasant) surprise. 
• DP World’s Offer for Silk Logistics (SLH AU) remains subject to FIRB signing off and a Scheme vote. Neither of which should pose an issue. 
• Timing? The IE and Scheme Booklet are all in place – from December last year. This requires a new schedule from the Courts. A possible revised timetable suggest late-August completion. 

• A global perspective on what happened overnight

• Update on changes to and revisions of analysts’ Best Ideas and Conviction Calls, as well as Model Portfolio compositions

• Warriedar Resources Limited (ASX:WA8) is an emerging gold and antimony developer whose flagship Golden Range project hosts ~2.3moz in AuEq resources in the prolific gold producing Murchison region of Western Australia.
• Since the acquisition of the project in CY23, WA8 has expanded the gold resource and delineated a globally significant antimony resource which is also contained in the core Ricciardo deposit.
• Whilst the gold resource alone could support a commercial development, the overlapping antimony resource not only increases the economic value, it adds a strategic value to the project given the supply shortages and trade restrictions affecting this commodity.

AFT Pharmaceuticals has provided an investor update for Q2 CY25 (Q1 FY26), summarising material progress made across its global expansion and R&D-driven growth strategy. The highlight of the period was the launch of Maxigesic IV/Combogesic IV in Canada, marking the beginning of direct sales in North America. This, along with the expanded licensing and profit-share agreement with Hikma in May 2025 (to include distribution of Combogesic Rapid in the US), provides AFT with a solid foundation to expand its footprint in these key global markets. The period also saw notable R&D progress including a pre-investigational new drug (IND) filing with the FDA for AFT’s antibiotic eyedrop targeting resistant ocular infections (eg MRSA), and preparations for filings related to its strawberry birthmarks topical (pre-IND) treatment and the Phase-III ready novel injectable iron therapy. A paediatric study of Maxigesic IV is also planned, which could expand the addressable patient populations.

• Structural growth and challenges are in focus this week for In Brief’s stock snacks with those companies benefitting from longer term trends or impeded by uncertainty

• A global perspective on what happened overnight

• Extra Edition of the Broker Call Report

• Clinuvel Pharmaceuticals posted a strong first half result, and offers significant upside in expanding the use of its flagship drug, but investors just aren’t excited