Australia

• Back on the 9th May 2025, Domain Holdings Australia (DHG AU) entered into a Scheme, at A$4.43/share (in cash), with CoStar, the same terms as the 27th March NBIO. 
• Apart from the standard Scheme vote, this needs FIRB to sign off.  Nine Entertainment Co Holdings (NEC AU) (60.05% shareholder) is supportive.
• The Scheme Booklet is now out, with a Scheme Meeting on the 4th August, and expected implementation on or before the 27th August. The IE (FGrant Samuel) says “fair & reasonable“.

• A global perspective on what happened overnight

• Context: This article provides an update on a previously identified pair trading opportunity between Ampol (ALD AU) and Woodside Energy Group Ltd (WDS AU), based on statistical mean reversion analysis.
• Key Insights: The trade has now reached its exit signal as the price ratio reverted to its one-standard deviation band, yielding a positive return.
• Why Read It: For investors interested in quantitative trading strategies, this article demonstrates how statistical arbitrage can generate short-term alpha and highlights actionable similar opportunities in the current market.

• Context: The AUB Group (AUB AU) vs. Soul Pattinson (SOL AU) Price-Ratio has deviated more than two standard deviations from its one-year average, presenting a potential relative value opportunity.
• Highlights: Going long AUB Group (AUB AU) and short Washington H. Soul Pattinson and Co. (SOL AU) targets a 5% return to the statistical mean reversion level.
• Why Read: Essential for quantitative traders seeking mean-reversion opportunities, with detailed execution framework, risk management protocols, and historical simulation showing the statistical basis for this relative value play.

• Nanosonics Ltd (NAN AU) is on track to launch its newly approved endoscope cleaning device, Coris in the U.S. in Q1FY26.
• FY25 performance is expected to beat revised guidance. Consensus is expecting revenue growth of 14% for FY25, matching the higher end of the revised guidance.
• Nanosonics shares have a high short interest (6.65%) in ASX. We may see some short squeeze as the company entering eventful Q1FY26 (new launch, FY25 result announcement, FY26 guidance).

• Resources & Energy Group Limited (ASX:REZ) is a Western Australian (WA) focused gold explorer and producer whose now sole focus is on the East Menzies Gold Project.
• This project hosts a JORC-compliant resource of ~54koz with REZ currently conducting a trial mining and processing operation which is likely to generate revenue to the company over H1 ‘25.
• This trial will be used to ramp-up production through an expanded bulk mining operation and ultimately a proper small-scale mining operation that removes the need for toll treating.

• GTN Limited (ASX:GTN) provides traffic information reports and cash compensation to radio and television stations, and in return gets a guaranteed number of commercial advertising spots adjacent to traffic, news and information reports.
• GTN has announced its long-awaited major capital management initiative, proposing a $0.23/share ($44m) capital return.
• What could have been a share price boost has been complicated by the announcement of a material H2 FY25 earnings downgrade, with EBITDA likely to be down ~55% on a ~4% decline in revenue.

• Theta Gold Mines Limited (ASX:TGM) is a gold developer targeting transitioning to producer by early CY27.
• TGM is currently completing site clearance and preparation works which will enable construction of a new gold plant once full funding has been finalised.
• TGM has secured credit approval for a US$35m debt facility with broader commercial bank syndication in process whilst the contractor for the gold plant has provided a staggered US$30m payment schedule which further reduces the required upfront equity contribution.

• It is not just Australia suffering a housing affordability crisis.
• The US is also suffering, particularly in the south, impacting Reece’s revenues and margins

• Ian Purdy departing Paladin Energy, with Paul Hamburrow stepping up as new CEO
• Paladin Energy facing challenges and controversies during Purdy’s tenure
• Potential implications and scrutiny surrounding Purdy’s departure and the future of the company under new leadership

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

• For June 2025, 11 new transactions (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma (by the Quiddity team) with an overall announced deal size of ~US$29bn.
• The average premium for the new transactions announced (or first discussed) in June was ~39%, with a year-to-date average of 47%.
• The average premiums for transactions in 2024 (129 transactions), (2023 (117), 2022 (106), 2021 (165), 2020 (158), and 2019 (145 ) were 43%, 39%, 41%, 33%, 31%, and 31%.

• A global perspective on what happened overnight

• Extra Edition of the Broker Call Report

• Beetaloo Energy Australia Limited (ASX:BTL) is a gas development company, with onshore Northern Territory (NT) gas exploration and development assets.
• BTL has the largest tenement position in the highly prospective Greater McArthur Basin, which includes the Beetaloo Sub-basin.
• The company has announced it has secured the consent (‘Consent’) for the sale of gas from EP187 (Carpentaria Pilot Project) after On Country meetings with the traditional owners across 24-25 June.

• Ricegrowers Limited, trading as SunRice (ASX:SGLLV), has released its FY25 results, delivering EBITDA of $147.7m (+4% above the PCP and in line with RaaS estimates) and NPAT of $69.5m (-6% due to a higher tax rate and 3% below RaaS estimates).
• Divisionally, Riviana (FX pressures) and Corporate (continued mill-out rate issues) were below our forecast while the other divisions were well above our forecasts, driven by margin mix (branded sales) and a cost/efficiency focus.
• The fully franked final dividend of $0.50/share was above our forecast while the Dividend Reinvestment Plan (DRP) has been reintroduced, this time partially underwritten.

• This is a transcript of the video interview in which RaaS interviews SunRice Group CFO Dimitri Courtelis following the company’s FY25 results.

Canyon Resources has provided an update on development activities at its flagship Minim Martap bauxite project in Cameroon. With the recently secured debt funding and first proceeds from the option exercise by its core shareholder Eagle Eye Asset Holdings, the company is in a strong position to continue with the accelerated project development. It remains on track for first ore production in early 2026 and first bauxite shipment in H1 CY26.

• Monash IVF (MVF AU) announced that an incident occurred at its Brisbane clinic, where embryo of one patient was incorrectly transferred to another patient resulting in birth of a child.
• The company revised the guidance of FY25 underlying NPAT to be A$27.5M from previous A$30M–31M, announced post H1FY25 results.
• Consensus estimates predict the company’s FY26 revenue to grow marginally by 1% to A$272M and net profit to decline nearly 5%.

• Aequitas Research’s weekly update on the IPOs, placements, lockup expiry and other ECM linked events that were covered by the team over the past week.
• On the IPO front, in a busy listing week, the results from listing were mixed.
• On the placements front, there were a number of large deals across the region.

• Iron ore prices rose 2.3% WoW from oversold levels since our last report, Iron Ore Tracker (23-June-2025): Iron Ore Due for A Small Bounce? to $95/ton
• In the short term, prices could reach $100/ton, but persistent medium-term supply overhang from the Simandou project may pressure prices down to $85/ton.
• We like Fenix Resources (FEX AU) for its massive ramp-up from 1.5 to 4.1 million tons. read: Fenix Resources (FEX AU): Q3 FY25 Concall Update + CZR News 

• Wrap of events affecting the market on Friday night and the weekend and a preview of the week ahead

• Context: The New Hope Corp (NHC AU) vs. Yancoal Australia (YAL AU) Price-Ratio has deviated more than two standard deviations from its one-year average, presenting a potential relative value opportunity.
• Highlights: Going long New Hope Corp (NHC AU) and short Yancoal Australia (YAL AU) targets a significant return to the statistical mean reversion level.
• Why Read: Essential for quantitative traders seeking mean-reversion opportunities, with detailed execution framework, risk management protocols, and historical simulation showing the statistical basis for this relative value play.

• I tally 43 – mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac – arb transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma.
• Two new deal were discussed on Smartkarma this week: Humm Group (HUM AU) and VIOL (335890 KS).
• Key updates/news took place onSantos (STO AU), PointsBet (PBH AU), New World Resources (NWC AU), SmartPay (SMP AU), Dickson Concepts (113 HK), and SBI Sumishin Net Bank (7163 JP).

• There is no shortage of opinions on whether FIRB will back/oppose the Santos Offer, as Australia seeks to balance attracting foreign investment with the need to protect national interests.
• The key question is how Australia benefits from Santos becoming a foreign-owned national oil/gas company? Can ADNOC accelerated/bolster existing projects/operations? Can ADNOC better negotiate native title rights for domestic supply? 
• And should Australia readily sell 100% in a critical infrastructure complex; yet if the roles were reversed, foreigners are capped at 49% ownership in UAE’s similar critical assets? 

• Kinterra has now firmed an off-market Offer for at A$0.057/share for copper-play New World Resources (NWC AU). There is no minimum acceptance condition.
• Kinterra’s Bidder’s Statement will be dispatched no later than the 10th July, at which time the Offer will open.  A Target statement is expected 15 days later.
• Central Asia Metals (CAML LN) has matchng rights. Expect those rights to be used.  

• After market close, CAML acquired a total of 253.0 million New World Resources (NWC AU) shares via off-market trades, representing 7.08% of the outstanding shares, at A$0.062 per share.
• Central Asia Metals (CAML LN)’s scheme and takeover offer has increased to A$0.062, a 12.7% premium to CAML’s previous A$0.055 offer and an 8.8% premium to Kinterra’s A$0.057 offer.
• CAML and Kinterra’s stake prevents the other from exercising compulsory acquisition rights. Despite CAML’s offer representing a 121.4% premium to the undisturbed price, there remains headroom for a bidding war. 

• A global perspective on what happened overnight

• Clarity Pharmaceuticals Ltd (CU6 AU) initiated Phase 3 trial for its lead diagnostic candidate 64Cu-SARbisPSMA. The trial intends to gather data for filing of the product.
• The company’s cash position at the end of the March quarter was A$95M, with additional A$11M received in April for FY24 R&D tax incentive. This provides cash runway through 2H26.
• Clarity has built a robust supply of copper-64 with a wide network of product manufacturers in preparation for its two Phase 3 trials in prostate cancer and potential commercialization. 

• A brief look at important company events and economic data releases next week

• Metcash’s FY25 result was solid, showing resilience in Food & Liquor.
• Signs are positive for a recovery in Hardware, but rate cuts are key

• A global perspective on what happened overnight

• A global perspective on what happened overnight

• Extra Edition of the Broker Call Report

• Couple of days ago, I published my index change expectations for the ASX index family in the run up to the September 2025 index review (link).
• After market close yesterday, the index provider announced a market consultation on potential changes to the index methodology which could become effective during the September review if it gets approved.
• This is a short insight with our revised ranks for the potential ADDs and DELs assuming the market consultation gets approved.

• Xero Ltd (XRO AU)  plans to raise around US$1.2bn via an institutional placement to partly fund the US$2.5bn acquisition for Melio.
• The US market has been a growth dampener for Xero for a while. The acquisition is large but might not be a game changer.
• In this note, we will talk about the deal dynamics and run the deal through our ECM framework.

• New World Resources (NWC AU) is subject to a bidding war between Central Asia Metals (CAML LN) and Kinterra. CAML’s binding offer is A$0.055 while Kinterra’s non-binding offer is A$0.057. 
• At current terms, a binding Kinterra offer would be superior as the price increase more than offsets the reverse break fees and does not require regulatory approvals.
• Despite Kinterra’s offer representing a 103.6% premium to the undisturbed price, there remains headroom for a bidding war. 

• In December 2021, buy-now, pay-later outfit humm (HUM AU) announced approaches from third parties to acquire all/part of the company. This was discussed in BNPL Play Hummgroup Fields Proposals. 
• Six months later, a proposed sale of Humm Consumer Finance business to Latitude (LFS AU) was terminated, before the scheduled vote, due to opposition from founder/chairman Andrew Abercrombie. 
• Now the Abercrombie Group (TAG), the family office of Andrew Abercrombie, has tabled a A$0.58/share non-binding Offer, in cash, by way of a Scheme. Abercrombie hold 26.6%.

• Humm Group (HUM AU) disclosed a non-binding proposal from The Abercrombie Group at A$0.58, a 34.9% premium to the undisturbed price of A$0.43 (23 June).
• The Board has granted a four-week due diligence period. The offer is unattractive on several metrics.
• Unsurprisingly, retail is strongly opposed to the low-ball offer. The Board should negotiate for better terms.   

• As reported by Brian Freitas and Janaghan Jeyakumar, there are potential methodology changes for the S&P/ASX family of indices in sight, read their insights for more details.
• If approved, the changes could take effect with the September index review and could bring in signficant reshaping for the S&P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX).
• In our previous insight on June 9th we signaled how the ASX 200 was overbought. The index close last week down. This insight discusses our new forecast and outlook.

• Amaero Ltd (ASX:3DA) is a global specialist in advanced materials manufacturing for the defence, aerospace and other industrial sectors, developing a critical metals alloy powder manufacturing facility in Tennessee, USA.
• In an ASX release on June 23, the company announced that it has completed commissioning of the second advanced Electrode Induction Melting Inert Gas Atomiser (EIGA premium) on schedule at its Tennessee manufacturing facility.
• Amaero also reaffirmed its guidance that revenue was expected to significantly scale in FY26 and shared that through the contract sales it has secured in long-term agreements, it now has visibility on ~80% of its planned Q1 and Q2 FY26 sales.

• Greatland Resources (GGP AU) started trading on the ASX Ltd (ASX AU) on 24 June after selling shares worth A$504m in a primary and secondary offering across Australia/UK.
• Greatland has a full market cap of A$4.9bn and a high free float since Greatland Gold Plc (GGP LN) was listed on the AIM market of the London Stock Exchange.
• Given the large market cap and high float, the stock could be added to multiple indices over the next few months.

• Context: This article provides an update on a previously identified pair trading opportunity between Waypoint REIT (WPR AU) and Region (RGN AU), based on statistical mean reversion analysis.
• Key Insights: The trade has now reached its exit signal as the price ratio reverted to its one-standard deviation band, yielding a positive return.
• Why Read It: For investors interested in quantitative trading strategies, this article demonstrates how statistical arbitrage can generate short-term alpha and highlights actionable similar opportunities in the current market.

• In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes for ASX 300, 200, 100, 50, and 20 in the run-up to the September 2025 index rebal event.
• We expect one change for ASX 50, three changes for ASX 100, and four changes for ASX 200. Separately we see 9 ADDs and 7 DELs for ASX 300.
• The official index changes will be announced after the close on Friday 5th September 2025.

• Bain Capital raised around US$440m via selling some of its stake in Virgin Australia Holdings (VAH AU).
• Virgin Australia is the second largest airline group operating in the Australian aviation market, with an average 32% domestic RPT capacity market share in CY24.
• We have looked at the company’s past performance and provided our thoughts on valuations in our previous note. In this note, we talk about the trading dynamics.

• New World receives an amended deal from CAML for 5.3 cents a share, with a $10 million placement to Camel at the same price.
• Kinterra Capital, who holds a 12% stake in New World, is unhappy with the placement and requests an urgent order to prevent it.
• The placement is conditional on New World not receiving a superior proposal from a third party in the next 14 days, which incentivizes Kinterra to make a takeover bid within that timeframe.

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

• It was just a matter of time when Toronto-based PE outfit Kinterra Capital, with a (then) 11.99% stake, made a move on copper miner New World Resources (NWC AU).
• After declaring  it had increased its holding to 19.126%, Kinterra followed with an off-market NBIO at A$0.057/share. Presumably the Offer requires due diligence but the announcement is silent on this.
• Separately, Central Asia Metals (CAML LN) announced after market last Friday, it had bought 178.8mn shares (5% of shares out) at A$0.055/share; and subsequently bumped terms to A$0.055/share. 

• Beetaloo Energy Australia Limited (ASX:BTL), formerly Empire Energy Group, is a gas development company, with onshore Northern Territory (NT) gas exploration and development assets.
• BTL has the largest tenement position in the highly prospective Greater McArthur Basin, which includes the Beetaloo Sub-basin.
• The company has completed its capital raise with the SPP finalised with an upscale to $7m bring the total raise to $35m*.

• BETR Entertainment (BBT AU) has now tabled an all scrip off-market offer for PointsBet (PBH AU) – no minimum acceptance condition – which they consider superior to MIXI (2121 JP)‘s. 
• Really? 3.81 new betr shares is currently equivalent to A$1.143/share versus MIXI’s A$1.20/share all-cash Offer. Terms backed out just A$1.086/share at the start of trading last Friday.
• PointsBet quite rightly states the obvious – betr’s Offer is materially below MIXI’s.

• Context: Statistical analysis of a relative value opportunity in the Australian Banking industry between ANZ Group Holdings (ANZ AU) and National Australia Bank (NAB AU).
• Highlights: Going long ANZ and short NAB targets a 4.5% return to the statistical mean reversion level, with ANZ supported by cheaper valuations.
• Why Read: Essential for quantitative traders seeking mean-reversion opportunities, with detailed execution framework, risk management protocols, and historical simulation showing the statistical basis for this relative value play.

• A weekly summary of key developments across ECM and Event-Driven names tracked by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Korea, India and Chinese ADRs.
• ECM developments: Zhejiang Sanhua Intelligent Controls (2050 HK) H share listing and CaoCao (2643 HK) and FWD Group Holdings (FWD HK) IPOs.
• Event-Driven developments: Santos Ltd (STO AU), PointsBet Holdings (PBH AU), Mayne Pharma (MYX AU), HKBN Ltd (1310 HK), Ascentech KK (3565 JP), Carta Holdings, Inc. (3688 JP). 

• Context: This Insight follows up on previously highlighted relative value opportunities, using a statistical methodology based on mean-reversion to identify opportunities in paired securities.
• Highlight: Six pair trade opportunities across three markets and three sectors persist. Two 
• Why read: Statistical analysis offers a unique perspective on relative value. Gain insights into actionable statistical pair trade opportunities and monitor performance of previously highlighted pairs.

• Iron ore continued to slip into negative territory and has now breached the lower end of the range of 95-130 USD/ton, which it has maintained over the last four years. 
• Data from CISA (China Iron and Steel Association) showed a decline in daily steel production YoY for May and June (tracking -4% YoY), after a lacklustre April (flat steel production). 
• The bright spot is that China continues to maintain strong net exports with May numbers at 10.1 million tons (121 million tons annualized), and mill margins are improving. 

• Flynn Gold Limited (ASX:FG1) is a junior gold explorer which holds a portfolio of tenements (20+3 in application) across Tasmania and Western Australia.
• The tenement package is prospective for several commodities, however, exploration efforts have largely focused on gold at the company’s flagship project, Golden Ridge, which is located in the north-east of Tasmania.
• Field work and ongoing drilling at the project over the past two years has resulted in FG1 developing critical mass at the project which is building up towards an inaugural JORC-compliant resource.

• Context: Statistical analysis of a relative value opportunity in the Australian Oil & Gas industry between Ampol (ALD AU) and Woodside Energy Group Ltd (WDS AU).
• Highlights: Going long Ampol and short Woodside targets an 8% return to the statistical mean reversion level.
• Why Read: Essential for quantitative traders seeking mean-reversion opportunities, with detailed execution framework, risk management protocols, and historical simulation showing the statistical basis for this relative value play.

• Context: Statistical analysis of a relative value opportunity between Perseus Mining (PRU AU) and Capricorn Metals (CMM AU), two Australian gold miners.
• Highlights: Going long Perseus Mining and short Capricorn Metals targets a 9% return to the statistical mean reversion level, with Perseus offering cheaper valuations and higher growth.
• Why Read: Essential for quantitative traders seeking mean-reversion opportunities, with detailed execution framework, risk management protocols, and historical simulation showing the statistical basis for this relative value play.

• I tally 46 – mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac – arb transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma.
• Four new deal were discussed on Smartkarma this week: Santos Ltd (STO AU), Adriatic Metals PLC (ADT AU), Tourism Holdings (THL NZ), and Carta Holdings, Inc. (3688 JP).
• Key updates/news took place on: Mayne Pharma (MYX AU), PointsBet Holdings (PBH AU), New World Resources (NWC AU), and Dickson Concepts Intl (113 HK).