Australia

I tally 46 – mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac – arb transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma.
Four new deal were discussed on Smartkarma this week: Santos Ltd (STO AU), Adriatic Metals PLC (ADT AU), Tourism Holdings (THL NZ), and Carta Holdings, Inc. (3688 JP).
Key updates/news took place on: Mayne Pharma (MYX AU), PointsBet Holdings (PBH AU), New World Resources (NWC AU), and Dickson Concepts Intl (113 HK).

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Jun 21

Daily Brief Australia: PointsBet Holdings , CSL Ltd, Region RE and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Australia, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

PointsBet (PBH AU): A Headache for Mixi as Betr Switches to a Takeover Offer
CSL Ltd (CSL AU): First In-House Antibody Drug Gets US Approval; Has Blockbuster Potential
Relative Value Opportunity: Region Group (RGN AU) Vs. Waypoint REIT (WPR AU)

PointsBet (PBH AU): A Headache for Mixi as Betr Switches to a Takeover Offer

BETR Entertainment (BBT AU) has switched its PointsBet Holdings (PBH AU) offer to an all-scrip takeover offer at 3.81 BBT shares per PBH share, with a post-offer buyback option at A$1.22.
Betr’s claim that its offer is superior is debatable. Mixi Inc (2121 JP)’s offer is 8.6% above Betr’s at last close prices, and minorities accepting the buyback will be prorated.
Betr’s offer is designed to torpedo Mixi’s scheme and takeover offer. Mixi will need to rethink its terms and likely drop its 50.1% minimum acceptance condition.

CSL Ltd (CSL AU): First In-House Antibody Drug Gets US Approval; Has Blockbuster Potential

By Tina Banerjee

CSL Ltd (CSL AU) received FDA approval of Andemry, for prophylactic use to prevent attacks of hereditary angioedema (HAE) in adult and pediatric patients aged 12 years and older.
CSL will launch Andemry in the U.S. immediately, with availability before the end of June. Thus far, Andemry has been approved in Australia, the UK, EU, Japan, Switzerland, and UAE.
With FDA approval, Andembry is now set to compete with Takeda’s blockbuster drug Takhzyro and BioCryst Pharmaceuticals’ oral HAE drug Orladeyo. Andembry has a convenience and efficacy edge over Takhzyro.

Relative Value Opportunity: Region Group (RGN AU) Vs. Waypoint REIT (WPR AU)

By Gaudenz Schneider

The Region Group (RGN AU) vs. Waypoint REIT (WPR AU) Price-Ratio has deviated more than two standard deviations from its one-year average, presenting a potential relative value opportunity.
The relative value opportunity can be implemented as a long-short pair trade or as relative over-/underweights in a long only context.
This Insight provides a target return, discusses trade setup, liquidity and risk management strategies.

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Jun 20

Daily Brief Australia: New World Resources, Provaris Energy , ADX Energy Ltd, Intermin Resources and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Australia, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

New World Resources (NWC AU): CAML Bumps. Shares To Be Placed. Kinterra Taps Takeover Panel
Riding the energy transition wave
ADX Energy (ASX: ADX): Focus on the shallow gas prospects
Horizon Minerals Ltd – Towards the cash-flow inflection

New World Resources (NWC AU): CAML Bumps. Shares To Be Placed. Kinterra Taps Takeover Panel

By Research as a Service (RaaS)

Central Asia Metals (CAML LN) has bumped terms for New World Resources (NWC AU) to A$0.053/share, up from A$0.05/share initially. An off-market Offer is in parallel should the Scheme fail.
Separately, NWC announced a A$10mn placement – funded by CAML! – to advance its Antler Project, “conditional on either no competing proposal being received by …. 4 July 2025“.
Toronto-Based PE outfit Kinterra Capital, with a 11.99% stake, has now tapped the Takeovers Panel to declare the placement a frustrating tactic.

Riding the energy transition wave

Provaris Energy Ltd (PV1.ASX) represents an unique investment opportunity as a leveraged play on the growing shift to alternative energy and carbon reduction, particularly in Europe, but applicable on a global basis.
The keystone to production and growth is proprietary ‘storage tank’ IP, enabling bigger volumes of compressed hydrogen to transport at lower cost (‘more for less’).
The company holds a material early-mover advantage with strategic partnerships and supply, offtake and shipping agreements expected to become unconditional over the next 12 months into 2026.

ADX Energy (ASX: ADX): Focus on the shallow gas prospects

By Auctus Advisors

• ADX has varied its acreage position to maximise exposure to a proven shallow gas play.
A total of seven drill-ready shallow gas play prospects exist within the ADX-AT-I and ADX-AT-II licence areas have been matured for drilling.
A further four gas prospects are being matured within its newly varied acreage areas.

Horizon Minerals Ltd – Towards the cash-flow inflection

By Research as a Service (RaaS)

Horizon Minerals Limited (ASX:HRZ) is an emerging junior gold producer with 1.8moz of gold resources located around the Kalgoorlie and Coolgardie regions of Western Australia.
HRZ released a mining update which provided insights into the ongoing mining operations at the Phillips Find Joint Venture (JV) and Boorara.
Phillips Find is largely tracking to expectations with potential upside given the material outperformance in recoveries.

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Jun 19

Daily Brief Australia: Mayne Pharma, Kilcoy Global Foods, Telix Pharmaceuticals and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Australia, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

Mayne Pharma (MYX AU): Entering Uncharted Territory as the Scheme Vote Passes
Mayne Pharma (MYX AU): The Vote Gets Up. Now What?
Kilcoy Global Foods (KGF): China Based Protein Provider Readying for July IPO
Telix Pharmaceuticals (TLX AU): New Product Launch In US; More to Follow; Illuccix on Strong Footing

Mayne Pharma (MYX AU): Entering Uncharted Territory as the Scheme Vote Passes

To no one’s surprise, the Mayne Pharma (MYX AU) scheme vote comfortably passed. The scheme remains conditional on FIRB approval and no material adverse change (which Cosette alleges).
The Mayne/Cosette court case wades into uncharted territory as it brings many firsts, such as the first MAC-related dispute to be heard in Australian courts with a qualified MAC threshold.
While Western case law burdens the buyer with establishing a MAC breach, it is unclear whether Mayne will get a favourable ruling, as Cosette could have a case. Tread carefully.

Mayne Pharma (MYX AU): The Vote Gets Up. Now What?

I have no clue. Given this is unchartered territory, in Australia, I don’t believe anyone has a perfect handle on the situation
What do we know? The Second Court meeting has been pushed out to the 18th September from 20th June initially, to “enable the dispute with Cosette“.
This date may be further delayed as a court hearing will commence on the 9th September to hear the validity of Cosette’s termination notice.

Kilcoy Global Foods (KGF): China Based Protein Provider Readying for July IPO

By IPO Boutique

They provide tasty, fresh, natural, healthy and convenient food products to customers across over 40 countries worldwide.
For the year ended December 31, 2024, they recorded a total revenue of US$2,195.0 million, increasing by 17.3% from US$1,870.7 million for the year ended December 31, 2023.
The area in which this company operates in is one that is not traditionally attractive to IPO investors as the margins are low and the competition is high.

Telix Pharmaceuticals (TLX AU): New Product Launch In US; More to Follow; Illuccix on Strong Footing

By Tina Banerjee

Telix Pharmaceuticals (TLX AU) has launched next-generation prostate cancer imaging agent, Gozellix in the U.S. With two FDA-approved commercial products, current U.S. addressable market opportunity is $2.5B+.
The FDA is expected to communicate its decision regarding the approval of Zircaix, kidney cancer imaging candidate, on August 27. Telix estimates initial U.S. market opportunity for Zircaix is $500M+.
Illuccix continued its momentum through gaining market share and maintaining price stability in a competitive landscape. In 1Q25, Illuccix revenue increased 35% YoY and 9% QoQ to $151M.

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Jun 18

Daily Brief Australia: New World Resources, Boss Energy, Carnarvon Petroleum and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Australia, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

New World Resources (NWC AU): Kinterra Capital Emerges With A 12% Stake
Boss Energy (ASX: BOE) – Transitioning to Tier-1 Producer with Strong Quarterly Momentum
Carnarvon Energy UPDATE(CVN)

New World Resources (NWC AU): Kinterra Capital Emerges With A 12% Stake

By Triple S Special Situations Investing

In New World Resources (NWC AU)’s Possible Interloper. I noted NWC’s shares trading through Central Asia Metals (CAML LN)‘s A$0.05/share terms. An opportunistic investor (s) or a third party bidder?
Toronto-Based PE outfit Kinterra Capital has now declared a 11.99% stake, paying upward of A$0.051/share.
New World Resources (NWC AU)is currently in a trading halt due to “a potential material variation, including a proposed increase in Scheme Consideration, to a change of control transaction“.

Boss Energy (ASX: BOE) – Transitioning to Tier-1 Producer with Strong Quarterly Momentum

By Rahul Jain

Boss delivered a robust March 2025 quarter, with Honeymoon generating free cash flow and production ramping sharply.
The company targets ~2.9M lbs annual output by FY27, supported by Alta Mesa and multiple exploration assets.
Valuations remain attractive at ~8× forward P/E, though uranium price volatility and execution risks persist.

Carnarvon Energy UPDATE(CVN)

Yes, I know I wrote this one up a year ago, but things have changed to make this a more interesting investment opportunity.
I would recommend holding this in an account where you can sit on it for a few years.
The ultimate IRR will be attractive, but this isn’t a quick flip.

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Jun 17

Daily Brief Australia: Mayne Pharma, Adriatic Metals PLC, Santos Ltd, PointsBet Holdings , Challenger Ltd, Jupiter Mines, Readcloud Ltd and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Australia, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

Mayne Pharma: No Precedence for a Deal Termination
Adriatic Metals (ADT AU)/Dundee Metals (DPM CN): A Burgeoning Balkan Play
Santos (STO AU): XRG’s Non-Binding Offer Faces an FIRB Challenge
PointsBet (PBH AU) [Further] Backs MIXI’s Offer, Rejects Betr’s
Challenger Limited Placement: TAL Dai-Ichi Bidding Higher, Apollo Overhang Gone
Jupiter Mines Takeover Potential, Wanda Hotel Special Dividend, and OCI Methanol Sale Near Completion
Readcloud Ltd – Delivering profitable growth

Mayne Pharma: No Precedence for a Deal Termination

By Nicholas Tan

Cosette signed a binding agreement to acquire Mayne Pharma (MYX AU) for $7.40 per share.
Cosette predictably got cold feet and is attempting to terminate the deal, invoking the deal’s material adverse clause.
Moreover, Cosette has repeatedly failed to quantify its allegations. The extant stock price implies a less than 30% chance of deal closure in spite of having zero precedence for support.

Adriatic Metals (ADT AU)/Dundee Metals (DPM CN): A Burgeoning Balkan Play

Dual-Listed Adriatic Metals PLC (ADT AU) has announced a cash/scrip Offer from Dundee Precious Metals (DPM CN) with an implied Offer price of A$5.56/share, a 47.8% premium to undisturbed.
Dundee is offering 0.1590 new Dundee shares per ADT share, plus 93 pence in cash. Roughly a 35:65 cash/scrip split for the Aussie listed line.
Adriatic is incorporated in the UK so the Offer is being done by a UK Scheme. Irrevocables tally 37.23%. Clean deal.

Santos (STO AU): XRG’s Non-Binding Offer Faces an FIRB Challenge

Santos Ltd (STO AU) has disclosed a “final” non-binding proposal from the XRG consortium at US$5.76 (A$8.89), a 27.7% premium to the undisturbed price of A$6.96 (13 June).
The offer is subject to several regulatory approvals. FIRB approval is the primary risk due to a foreign government-controlled entity controlling critical domestic infrastructure assets.
The offer is attractive compared to peer multiples and historical trading ranges. Retail has a mixed view on the offer, which should not be an issue for the vote.

PointsBet (PBH AU) [Further] Backs MIXI’s Offer, Rejects Betr’s

By Special Situation Investments

On the 3rd June, MIXI bumped Scheme terms to A$1.20/share; and should the Scheme fail, MIXI was “willing to consider” an off-market takeover at A$1.20/share with a 50.1% acceptance hurdle.
PointsBet (PBH AU) has now entered a bid implementation deed with MIXI on the off-market Offer, conditional on the Scheme failing; which it will given BETR (BBT AU)‘s 19.9% stake.
And on Betr? PBH has rejected its Offer, questioning the computation of the synergies, and calling the bid materially below MIXI’s.

Challenger Limited Placement: TAL Dai-Ichi Bidding Higher, Apollo Overhang Gone

By Nicholas Tan

AP Liberty (Apollo) is looking to raise US$170m from selling out its stake in Challenger Ltd (CGF AU) .
This selldown comes on the heels of a previous selldown in September 2024 ; Apollo is conducting a clean-up sale now.
In this note, we run the deal through our ECM framework and comment on deal dynamics.

Jupiter Mines Takeover Potential, Wanda Hotel Special Dividend, and OCI Methanol Sale Near Completion

Jupiter Mines (JMS:AX) potential takeover: JV sale valued Tshipi mine at A$0.315/share, 60% above current trading levels.
OCI N.V. (OCI:AS) nearing methanol business sale completion: US$1.2bn cash, 9.9 million MEOX shares, €8/share net cash position.
Mayne Pharma (MYX:AX) merger dispute: Cosette issued termination notice, MYX denies allegations, court hearing scheduled for September 9.

Readcloud Ltd – Delivering profitable growth

By Research as a Service (RaaS)

ReadCloud Limited (ASX:RCL) services the education sector through the provision of digital learning content, proprietary interactive technology, and support for students and educators.
The company has released its H1 FY25 interim result (September year-end), illustrating a continuation of strong momentum in the core schools-focussed businesses.
Group sales and fee revenue grew 13% to $9.2m, underlying EBITDA strengthened 73% to $1.8m, with strong cash conversion delivering operating cash flow of $1.9m for the half, leaving the company with $3.5m cash and no debt at period end.

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Jun 16

Daily Brief Australia: Santos Ltd, Pilbara Minerals, Paladin Energy, Mayne Pharma, S&P/ASX 200 and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Australia, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

Santos (STO AU): XRG Consortium’s Big Offer; Index Impact
MV Australia Equal Weight Index Rebalance: MinRes, Pilbara Deleted as Trade Nears A$300m
Paladin Energy (ASX: PDN) – Ramp-Up Progressing Amid Strong Uranium Tailwinds & Optionality
Merger Arb Mondays (16 June) – Mayne, Pointsbet, Fengxiang, HKBN, Seven & I, Shibaura, Smartpay
Santos Ltd (STO AU): FIRB Approval For XRG’s Tilt Will Be No Pushover
Heat Maps: Asia/Pacific Stocks and Commodities

Santos (STO AU): XRG Consortium’s Big Offer; Index Impact

A consortium comprising ADNOC and Carlyle have offered US$5.76/share (A$8.8807/share) to take Santos Ltd (STO AU) private. That values Santos equity at A$28.8bn and an Enterprise Value of A$36bn.
With the offer price at a premium of 28%-44% to last and VWAPs, and the Board supporting the offer, this looks like a done deal.
Santos Ltd (STO AU) is a member of all the major S&P/ASX indices and there will be ad hoc inclusions to the indices at the time of the delisting.

MV Australia Equal Weight Index Rebalance: MinRes, Pilbara Deleted as Trade Nears A$300m

Mineral Resources (MIN AU) and Pilbara Minerals (PLS AU) will be deleted from the VanEck Vectors Australian Equal Weight ETF (MVW AU) after the close on 20 June.
The two deletions, capping and float changes result in a one-way turnover of 5.03% at the rebalance. That leads to a round-trip trade of A$294m.
Pilbara Minerals (PLS AU) is also a deletion from the S&P/ASX 50 Index at the same time and there will be more passive selling from those trackers.

Paladin Energy (ASX: PDN) – Ramp-Up Progressing Amid Strong Uranium Tailwinds & Optionality

By Rahul Jain

Paladin reported a Q3 FY25 net loss of US$38M, impacted by non-cash impairments and ramp-up costs, though production at Langer Heinrich hit post-restart highs.
Management targets steady-state output of ~6 Mlb by FY27, with uranium demand set to outpace supply driven by new reactor builds and SMR adoption.
At core EV/EBITDA of ~2.8x on US$70/lb uranium, valuations appear undemanding relative to long-life assets and sector-leading leverage to uranium prices.

Merger Arb Mondays (16 June) – Mayne, Pointsbet, Fengxiang, HKBN, Seven & I, Shibaura, Smartpay

We summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations we cover across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.
Highest spreads: Mayne Pharma (MYX AU), Insignia Financial (IFL AU), ENN Energy (2688 HK), Smartpay Holdings (SPY NZ), Seven & I Holdings (3382 JP), Smart Share Global (EM US).
Lowest spreads: Bright Smart Securities And (1428 HK), Avjennings Ltd (AVJ AU), Toyota Industries (6201 JP), Nippon Road (1884 JP), AEON Mall (8905 JP), Nissin Corp (9066 JP).

Santos Ltd (STO AU): FIRB Approval For XRG’s Tilt Will Be No Pushover

Aussie O&G producer Santos Ltd (STO AU) has announced a non-binding Scheme from XRG, which comprises Abu Dhabi’s National Oil Company, Abu Dhabi Development Holding Company, and Carlyle
The consortium is offering US$5.76 (A$8.89)/share, a 28% premium to last close. Initial Offers were pitched at US$5.04/share, followed by US$5.42/share.
Confirmatory due diligence has been afforded. A firm bid would require a multitude of reg approvals in Australia, PNG, and the US.

Heat Maps: Asia/Pacific Stocks and Commodities

By Nico Rosti

This insight offers a quick look at the probability of reversal for a number of stocks and indices in the Asia/Pacific Region, plus Gold (GOLD COMDTY) and Crude Oil (CL1)
Both Gold (GOLD COMDTY) and Crude Oil (CL1 COM COMDTY) appear overbought, but as discussed in a recent insight, Crude Oil can certainly go higher.
S&P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) and Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200 (KOSPI2 INDEX EQUITY) are also very overbought, detailed outlooks have been recently discussed here (ASX200) and here (KOSPI200).

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Jun 15

Daily Brief Australia: Genesis Minerals, IperionX Limited and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Australia, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

MV Australia Resources Index Rebalance: Two Adds, Float & Capping Changes
MV Global Rare Earth/Strategic Metals Index Rebalance: One Add, One Delete & Other Changes

MV Australia Resources Index Rebalance: Two Adds, Float & Capping Changes

Capricorn Metals (CMM AU) and Genesis Minerals (GMD AU) will be added to the Vaneck Vectors Australian Re (MVR AU) in June.
Constituent changes, float changes and capping changes result in an estimated one-way turnover of 8% and a round-trip trade of A$49m.
There has been short covering in both adds over the last couple of years. While short interest is relatively smaller in Capricorn Metals, it is much higher in Genesis Minerals.

MV Global Rare Earth/Strategic Metals Index Rebalance: One Add, One Delete & Other Changes

IperionX Limited (IPX AU) will be added to the VanEck Rare Earth/Strategic Me (REMX US) and Patriot Battery Metals (PMT CN) will be deleted.
The constituent changes, float changes and capping changes result in an estimated one-way turnover of 6.3% and in a round-trip trade of US$48m.
The largest inflows will be in IperionX, Iluka Resources and Albemarle, while the largest outflows will be from Patriot Battery Metals, AMG Critical Materials, Shenghe Resources and Lithium Americas.

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Jun 14

Daily Brief Australia: New World Resources and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Australia, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

New World Resources (NWC AU)’s Possible Interloper

New World Resources (NWC AU)’s Possible Interloper